EGYPT: AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001492

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TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC SENV EAGR EAID EG KFLU
SUBJECT: EGYPT: AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

REF: A. CAIRO 1100

B. CAIRO 1007

C. CAIRO 1006

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Summary
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1. (SBU) H5N1 avian influenza (AI) has spread to 17 Egyptian
governorates, and new cases are being reported daily. The
GOE enforced drastic measures to contain the avian influenza
(AI) outbreak, and has decided to vaccinate poultry, but the
poultry industry has collapsed, and promised compensation has
not appeared, fueling mistrust of the government. End
summary.

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The Scope of the Problem
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2. (SBU) Since the GOE announced the first confirmed case of
H5N1 avian influenza (AI) on February 17, the outbreak has
spread to 17 of Egypt's 26 governorates, Gharbia being the
most recent addition. New cases are being reported every day
in Sharqia, Qalyubia, and Giza; poultry has now been almost
completely eliminated from these areas. There have been no
reported cases of AI infection in humans to date.
Conflicting reports on the numbers of cases, culled chickens,
and locations make statistics difficult to verify. While the
GOE,s official website
(http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu01001.htm) reports
approximately 320,000 birds have been culled, GOE sources
tell us that the number is closer to 2.5 million.


3. (SBU) Post has learned of a significant die-off of pigs
in Qalyubia governorate, apparently tens of thousands of
animals. Post has also received reports of large numbers of
pigs being thrown into canals. The cause of the Qalyubia
die-off has not been determined; none of the swine pulled
from canals have tested positive for AI. The pig killings
may be a reaction to Egyptian press reports claiming that
ducks and pigs carry AI and transmit it to chickens.

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The GOE Response
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4. (SBU) The GOE moved quickly to control the outbreak by
culling sick birds and preventing the movement, as much as
possible, of domesticated birds. The Ministry of Health and
Population (MOHP) reports that 30% of infected birds have
been found in commercial operations, while 70% have been in
found in household flocks. The government measures include:
a ban on the transport between governorates or districts of
live poultry (the ban does not apply to frozen poultry or
eggs); a prohibition on slaughter outside licensed
slaughterhouses; closure of all poultry shops; and a
prohibition on keeping poultry in backyards and rooftops or
on unlicensed small farms. These decrees were renewed for
another 15-day period on March 6 (see
http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu010168.htm) . The GOE also
plans to strengthen regulation of the poultry industry and to
bolster biosecurity measures in poultry farms.


5. (SBU) Ministry of Defense chemical units are taking the
lead in culling poultry. GOE policy is to cull all birds
within a three kilometer radius of a positive H5N1 sample and
provide LE 5 (app. $0.87) per bird compensation to farmers.
From three to six kilometers from a positive test, GOE policy
is to provide LE 3 per bird for feed for healthy birds
through their life cycle and an additional LE 2 per bird if
at the end of that cycle the producer is unable to sell the
birds to a slaughterhouse.


6. (SBU) It is proving difficult to clarify how compensation
is being handled in practice. Many farmers express certainty
that others have received compensation while asserting that
they have not received any themselves. Post has also
received anecdotal reports of compensation fraud on the part

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of some producers who, in order to sell healthy but now
worthless chickens, have resorted to bribing officials to
declare their area H5N1 positive so that they may qualify for
the compensation scheme described above.


7. (SBU) The GOE has reportedly decided to attempt to
vaccinate its poultry industry, and has purchased 25 million
doses of AI vaccine from China. The MOHP has also
distributed 74,000 doses of Tamiflu to hospitals around the
country as a precautionary measure. All fever hospitals have
been instructed to submit samples to the MOHP from any
patients showing flu symptoms.


8. (SBU) To limit rapid spread of infection in future AI
outbreaks, MOHP has proposed transforming the poultry sector
from small-scale farming and live-bird trade into large-scale
commercial poultry farms and government-approved processing
plants. If this vision is implemented, it will be a dramatic
change for an industry that, before the outbreak, was
conducting 90 percent of its business as live-bird trade
through an extensive country-wide network of small-scale
retailers. Industry sources estimate that some $320 million
of investment would be needed to build a large-scale
commercial industry able to meet pre-crisis poultry demand.

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The Economic Impact
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9. (SBU) Before the crisis, Egypt's $3 billion poultry
industry employed 1.5 million workers. Poultry, which was
one-third the price of beef, accounted for half of the
protein in the Egyptian diet, even more in the case of poor
Egyptians. The industry has been decimated not only by the
culling of birds and closure of poultry shops, but by
widespread fear of eating any poultry. The manager at a busy
downtown KFC outlet told us that the restaurant now averages
less than 50 customers a day, compared to almost a thousand
daily customers before the AI outbreak. Most restaurants
have stopped serving chicken altogether. The collapse in
demand has created a poultry reserve of about 30 million
birds and 100 million eggs. However, frozen chickens,
processed in Egypt, are once again available in the market.


10. (SBU) There are no precise figures available on the loss
to the industry, but it is clear that poultry farmers are
being hard hit. The Ministry of Agriculture stated that the
industry has been losing roughly $2 million per day for the
last three months. The farmers claim that government
compensation is insufficient to cover their losses. The
government has promised further unspecified assistance in the
form of debt and tax relief, but such aid will not address
the immediate financial crisis.


11. (SBU) The Egyptian poultry industry relies on imports
for all of its inputs. Before the crisis, yellow corn,
soybean products, feather meal and corn gluten were largely
imported from the U.S. In addition, Egypt imports
grandparent stock and chicks from the U.S. Feed consumption
has dropped by 50%, and although standing feed orders have
not been cancelled, no new orders have been tendered; the
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates a loss of $200
million to the U.S. as a result.

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Public Reaction
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12. (SBU) Despite GOE claims that all is calm, there has
been widespread general concern about the government's
handling of the AI outbreak and a number of protests. The
protests have largely been by poultry workers, including one
outside parliament on February 26 denouncing the government's
decision to close down street merchants selling poultry.
More recently, about 600 poultry workers demonstrated in
central Cairo on March 1, and another group demonstrated
March 5 in Alexandria, demanding better compensation and the
reopening of their businesses. The Muslim Brotherhood has
criticized the GOE,s response to AI and has announced its
own awareness campaign, claiming the government information
is false.


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Assistance to the GOE
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13. (SBU) USAID has re-directed $1.5 million from its health
assistance budget as a set-aside for assistance to the MOHP's
AI response, with $500,000 earmarked for an MOHP emergency
assistance proposal and the remaining $1 million to be made
available for long-term preparedness. Another $140,000
allocated for joint USAID/GOE health projects has been
channeled into the emergency response.
RICCIARDONE