ISN A/S RADEMAKER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH ARAB LEAGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001233

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV IAEA EG IR IS KNNP
SUBJECT: ISN A/S RADEMAKER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH ARAB LEAGUE
SECRETARY GENERAL AMRE MOUSSA


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Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: International Security and
Nonproliferation Assistant Secretary Stephen Rademaker,
joined by DCM Stuart Jones, discussed Iran and a proposed
Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (MEWMDFZ)
with Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa on February

16. Moussa acknowledged that Iran's nuclear weapons program
must not be allowed to proceed, and said "I am convinced"
there will be further nuclear proliferation in the region if
Iran were to succeed. But Moussa insisted that Israel's
nuclear program and the proposed MEWMDFZ must be publicly
addressed if the U.S. hopes to sway Arab opinion and thus
enable Arab governments to pressure Iran. A/S Rademaker
repeatedly resisted Amre Moussa's insistence on linking the
issues, noting that Iran must be addressed immediately
because there would be no chance for a MEWMDFZ if Iran
acquires nuclear weapons. While Moussa ultimately agreed the
Iran and Israeli issues need not be "linked per se," he
insisted that the League and other Arab publics and
governments would want an acknowledgment of "a relationship"
between stopping Iran and creating a zone that includes
Israel. Moussa ended by pressing the U.S. to find a way to
publicly address the Israeli issue. He said any League
statement on Iran would include a reference to Israel's
nuclear posture. End summary.


2. (C) Assistant Secretary Rademaker told Arab League
Secretary General Amre Moussa that Iran's nuclear weapons

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program must be stopped immediately or there will be no
chance of achieving the MEWMDFZ. Amre Moussa responded that
the U.S. approach of excluding Israel from the regional
proliferation discussion is backfiring and support for the
U.S. position is weak, even in the Gulf. An example of this,
he offered, is the recent failure of the GCC resolution on
Iran. The Iranian program, he argued, is a reaction to the
Israeli program. Moussa accused the U.S. of not pressuring
Israel and said the key to progress is a balanced regional
policy on this issue. Moussa proposed beginning a dialogue
that would tackle Israel and Iran simultaneously.


3. (C) A/S Rademaker warned against linking Iran with
Israel and predicted that Israel will not accede to the NPT
until there is Middle East peace. He confirmed that the U.S.
has long shared the goal of a universal NPT and a WMD-free
zone in the region, and cited the recent reference to the
latter issue in the February 4 IAEA resolution reporting Iran
to the UNSC. However, linking action against Iran to Israel
would delay effective international pressure until after Iran
succeeds with its nuclear weapons program, which, in turn,
would destroy any chance of creating a MEWMDFZ. When A/S
Rademaker said that some Gulf countries see themselves, not
Israel, as Iran's targets, Moussa disagreed strongly, arguing
again that such a fear is inconsistent with the fact that the
GCC resolution failed. When A/S Rademaker acknowledged that
the League would play a key role in influencing regional
views on the Iran matter, Moussa said that to shape opinion,
the U.S. would need to be seen as "not forgetting about"
Israel. He said any League statement on the Iran nuclear
issue would certainly include reference to Israel as well.
He reiterated that public opinion is not with the U.S. on
this issue and said Arab governments have little leeway, even
if they see Iran as a threat. He said that if current trends
continue and Iran gains nuclear weapons, the U.S. should
"rest assured that there will be a third country" (NFI) in
the region that pursues nuclear weapons.


4. (C) A/S Rademaker closed by saying that the U.S.
understands the League priorities and that he would report
the discussion to Washington. He also noted that the League
will have a role to play in international efforts to prevent
Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and that the U.S. hopes it
will be a positive role.


5. (U) A/S Rademaker cleared this cable.
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