Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUENOSAIRES902
2006-04-21 18:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:
ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS
how-toVZCZCXRO1024 PP RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHQU RUEHTM RUEHVC DE RUEHBU #0902/01 1111859 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 211859Z APR 06 FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4238 INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY RUEHNA/DEA WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 000902
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AMBASSADORS TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES
SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS
AND 2007 ELECTIONS
REF: A. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00877
B. 05 BUENOS AIRES 01530
C. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02882
D. BUENOS AIRES 00887
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 000902
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AMBASSADORS TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES
SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS
AND 2007 ELECTIONS
REF: A. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00877
B. 05 BUENOS AIRES 01530
C. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02882
D. BUENOS AIRES 00887
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
1. (C) SUMMARY: DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18
with Juan Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary
political campaign strategist. The DCM noted the overall
positive nature of the bilateral relationship and took the
opportunity to highlight our concerns on Venezuela. Mazzon
said that inflation was the greatest challenge the GOA was
facing and that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the
anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. With
regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he thought
Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner would
decide the issue personally sometime before January 2007. He
said Cristina Kirchner's role in 2007 had not yet been
decided. Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold
internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this
year, nor would he try to hold the national elections before
October 2007. On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was
key to ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta
Humala win in the Peruvian presidential elections would
greatly complicate regional relations. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18 with Juan
Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary political
campaign strategist, as part of an ongoing dialogue the DCM
maintains with this key Kirchner advisor (Reftels A-C).
Carlos Mazzon, whose Casa Rosada office is close to President
Kirchner's, was the chief architect of Kirchner's strategy in
the October 2005 elections and is intimately involved in
developing plans for the 2007 presidential and legislative
elections.
--------------
Bilateral Relations & GOA Policy on Inflation
--------------
3. (C) The DCM opened the discussion by reviewing the
U.S.-Argentine relationship. The DCM noted the positive
overall nature of the bilateral relationship, highlighting
the good cooperation on counternarcotics,
counterproliferation, and counterterrorism issues. The DCM
also took the opportunity to raise our concerns with regards
to Venezuela, particularly in light of President Hugo
Chavez's recent actions and mistreatment of U.S. Ambassador
Brownfield (Reftel D). The DCM said that Washington would be
closely watching the upcoming UN vote on future Security
Council members and hoped that Argentina would support
Guatemala's candidacy over Venezuela's. For his part, Carlos
Mazzon also underscored the numerous areas in which the two
governments were cooperating.
4. (C) Turning to domestic issues, Mazzon said that
inflation is the greatest challenge the GOA is facing and
that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the
anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. Mazzon
said that the negotiations over beef prices have been
particularly difficult. Mazzon acknowledged that price
controls were not a long-term solution and that only more
investment would enable Argentina to overcome inflation
problems. Mazzon said that Guillermo Moreno was a good
negotiator and the right person to deal with the beef
producers. However, he felt that Moreno's appointment
represented a weakening of the Ministry of the Economy, which
he felt was not good. Mazzon said that the imposition of
someone from outside of the Ministry in such a high profile
role would reduce the role of Minister of the Economy Felisa
Miceli. He thought that the weakness of Miceli and her
ministry presented risks for Kirchner, as all the blame for
future economic problems would fall squarely on the President.
--------------
The 2007 Elections
BUENOS AIR 00000902 002 OF 003
--------------
5. (C) With regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he
thought Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner
would decide the issue personally sometime before January
2007. He said the presidential elections would be held in
October 2007, as Kirchner does not want to appear weak by
moving up the elections like Alfonsin and Duhalde did during
times of crisis. Mazzon also said that making a
constitutional case for moving up the elections would be
difficult. Mazzon was confident that Kirchner would easily
win reelection.
6. (C) Mazzon thought Kirchner's main opponents in 2007
would be the center-right Republican Proposal (PRO) and a
center-left alliance of Affirmation for an Egalitarian
Republic (ARI) Elisa Carrio and the Radical Civic Union
(UCR). Mazzon thought that PRO's Mauricio Macri would likely
decide to run for President. Mazzon thought Ricardo Lopez
Murphy or even Vice President Daniel Scioli might be PRO's
candidate for Mayor of Buenos Aires. He did not think Lopez
Murphy would align himself with his old party, the UCR, due
to ideological differences, although he did feel Elisa Carrio
would do so. Mazzon said Kirchner's current favorite to be
his candidate in the Buenos Aires mayoral race is former
Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna. When asked about
Scioli's chances of becoming Kirchner's mayoral candidate,
Mazzon said they were very limited. Mazzon did not mention
current Mayor Jorge Telerman in terms of the Casa Rosada's
strategy for the Buenos Aires mayoral race.
7. (C) When asked about Senator and First Lady Cristina
Kirchner, Mazzon said that her role in 2007 had not yet been
decided. While acknowledging that the First Lady would be
the only logical second choice if President Kirchner decides
to not run for reelection, Mazzon felt that reelection was
the logical course of action. Mazzon said that Cristina
Kirchner might be President Kirchner's candidate to become
the next Governor of Buenos Aires province, but added that
the President was just as likely to pick a lesser-known
candidate. Mazzon acknowledged that Cristina Kirchner had
assumed a reduced public role since December 2005, which he
said was more akin to her role before she became a candidate
in Buenos Aires province. He did not address the rumors that
have been rampant in the local press over the last month that
President Kirchner and the First Lady are in conflict and
virtually separated.
8. (C) Mazzon said President Kirchner would likely pick
either someone outside of the Peronist Party (PJ) or a PJ
Governor from a small province as his vice presidential
running mate in 2007. He said that Kirchner would try to
ensure that no rivals develop from within the PJ that could
challenge him in the future, paying particular attention to
his choices for Vice President and Governor of Buenos Aires
province with this in mind.
9. (C) Mazzon said that Kirchner would continue to use the
Victory Front (FPV) -- which he described as nothing more
than a political coalition -- to foster useful political
alliances with non-PJ political forces. Mazzon said that
Kirchner was the de facto head of the PJ, but the FPV label
made it easier for Kirchner to cement alliances with other
political leaders, such as several UCR Governors, who would
be unwilling to incorporate themselves into the PJ.
10. (C) Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold
internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this
year. He said that Kirchner does not want to demonstrate
disunity in the PJ while he is dealing with sensitive issues
like controlling inflation. Mazzon felt it would be better
to hold the PJ elections at the beginning of next year as a
way to kick off the election campaign season. Mazzon added
that the PJ did not need a national direction, as the party
is largely composed of provincial PJ parties that are well
run on the local level.
BUENOS AIR 00000902 003 OF 003
11. (C) Looking towards post-2007 elections, Mazzon said
President Kirchner would be more "sensible" and have more
experience.
--------------
Regional Politics
--------------
12. (C) On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was key to
ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta Humala
win in the Peruvian presidential elections would greatly
complicate regional relations. Mazzon said that if Chile
could work out an agreement with Bolivia on its access to the
sea -- resolving a sensitive national issue that has
seriously affected Bolivia's ability to export its gas --
Argentina and other countries in the region would have a much
easier time reaching an energy agreement with Bolivia.
Mazzon said he thought Humala would lose the run-off election
in Peru. If Humala was elected, however, he felt regional
relations, especially between Chile and Bolivia, would be
greatly complicated.
--------------
Comment
--------------
13. (C) The 2007 elections are a long way off, and any
speculation on the "official" candidates is still contingent
on the final decision of President Kirchner. When those
decisions are made, Carlos Mazzon will be main person behind
the scenes developing and implementing the electoral
strategy. Mazzon's closeness to the President makes his
comments on Kirchner's current mindset on the elections
valuable. Mazzon has differed with Kirchner in the past, for
example when he urged Kirchner to maintain his alliance with
former President Eduardo Duhalde last year. However, Mazzon
was quick to get behind the official line once the decision
was made to break with Duhalde, preserving his role in the
Casa Rosada. Mazzon is a masterful political operative that
has served three Peronist Presidents -- Menem, Duhalde, and
now Kirchner. We will continue our dialogue with him as we
begin to look toward the 2007 presidential elections.
GUTIERREZ
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AMBASSADORS TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES
SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS
AND 2007 ELECTIONS
REF: A. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00877
B. 05 BUENOS AIRES 01530
C. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02882
D. BUENOS AIRES 00887
Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
1. (C) SUMMARY: DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18
with Juan Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary
political campaign strategist. The DCM noted the overall
positive nature of the bilateral relationship and took the
opportunity to highlight our concerns on Venezuela. Mazzon
said that inflation was the greatest challenge the GOA was
facing and that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the
anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. With
regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he thought
Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner would
decide the issue personally sometime before January 2007. He
said Cristina Kirchner's role in 2007 had not yet been
decided. Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold
internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this
year, nor would he try to hold the national elections before
October 2007. On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was
key to ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta
Humala win in the Peruvian presidential elections would
greatly complicate regional relations. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18 with Juan
Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary political
campaign strategist, as part of an ongoing dialogue the DCM
maintains with this key Kirchner advisor (Reftels A-C).
Carlos Mazzon, whose Casa Rosada office is close to President
Kirchner's, was the chief architect of Kirchner's strategy in
the October 2005 elections and is intimately involved in
developing plans for the 2007 presidential and legislative
elections.
--------------
Bilateral Relations & GOA Policy on Inflation
--------------
3. (C) The DCM opened the discussion by reviewing the
U.S.-Argentine relationship. The DCM noted the positive
overall nature of the bilateral relationship, highlighting
the good cooperation on counternarcotics,
counterproliferation, and counterterrorism issues. The DCM
also took the opportunity to raise our concerns with regards
to Venezuela, particularly in light of President Hugo
Chavez's recent actions and mistreatment of U.S. Ambassador
Brownfield (Reftel D). The DCM said that Washington would be
closely watching the upcoming UN vote on future Security
Council members and hoped that Argentina would support
Guatemala's candidacy over Venezuela's. For his part, Carlos
Mazzon also underscored the numerous areas in which the two
governments were cooperating.
4. (C) Turning to domestic issues, Mazzon said that
inflation is the greatest challenge the GOA is facing and
that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the
anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. Mazzon
said that the negotiations over beef prices have been
particularly difficult. Mazzon acknowledged that price
controls were not a long-term solution and that only more
investment would enable Argentina to overcome inflation
problems. Mazzon said that Guillermo Moreno was a good
negotiator and the right person to deal with the beef
producers. However, he felt that Moreno's appointment
represented a weakening of the Ministry of the Economy, which
he felt was not good. Mazzon said that the imposition of
someone from outside of the Ministry in such a high profile
role would reduce the role of Minister of the Economy Felisa
Miceli. He thought that the weakness of Miceli and her
ministry presented risks for Kirchner, as all the blame for
future economic problems would fall squarely on the President.
--------------
The 2007 Elections
BUENOS AIR 00000902 002 OF 003
--------------
5. (C) With regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he
thought Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner
would decide the issue personally sometime before January
2007. He said the presidential elections would be held in
October 2007, as Kirchner does not want to appear weak by
moving up the elections like Alfonsin and Duhalde did during
times of crisis. Mazzon also said that making a
constitutional case for moving up the elections would be
difficult. Mazzon was confident that Kirchner would easily
win reelection.
6. (C) Mazzon thought Kirchner's main opponents in 2007
would be the center-right Republican Proposal (PRO) and a
center-left alliance of Affirmation for an Egalitarian
Republic (ARI) Elisa Carrio and the Radical Civic Union
(UCR). Mazzon thought that PRO's Mauricio Macri would likely
decide to run for President. Mazzon thought Ricardo Lopez
Murphy or even Vice President Daniel Scioli might be PRO's
candidate for Mayor of Buenos Aires. He did not think Lopez
Murphy would align himself with his old party, the UCR, due
to ideological differences, although he did feel Elisa Carrio
would do so. Mazzon said Kirchner's current favorite to be
his candidate in the Buenos Aires mayoral race is former
Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna. When asked about
Scioli's chances of becoming Kirchner's mayoral candidate,
Mazzon said they were very limited. Mazzon did not mention
current Mayor Jorge Telerman in terms of the Casa Rosada's
strategy for the Buenos Aires mayoral race.
7. (C) When asked about Senator and First Lady Cristina
Kirchner, Mazzon said that her role in 2007 had not yet been
decided. While acknowledging that the First Lady would be
the only logical second choice if President Kirchner decides
to not run for reelection, Mazzon felt that reelection was
the logical course of action. Mazzon said that Cristina
Kirchner might be President Kirchner's candidate to become
the next Governor of Buenos Aires province, but added that
the President was just as likely to pick a lesser-known
candidate. Mazzon acknowledged that Cristina Kirchner had
assumed a reduced public role since December 2005, which he
said was more akin to her role before she became a candidate
in Buenos Aires province. He did not address the rumors that
have been rampant in the local press over the last month that
President Kirchner and the First Lady are in conflict and
virtually separated.
8. (C) Mazzon said President Kirchner would likely pick
either someone outside of the Peronist Party (PJ) or a PJ
Governor from a small province as his vice presidential
running mate in 2007. He said that Kirchner would try to
ensure that no rivals develop from within the PJ that could
challenge him in the future, paying particular attention to
his choices for Vice President and Governor of Buenos Aires
province with this in mind.
9. (C) Mazzon said that Kirchner would continue to use the
Victory Front (FPV) -- which he described as nothing more
than a political coalition -- to foster useful political
alliances with non-PJ political forces. Mazzon said that
Kirchner was the de facto head of the PJ, but the FPV label
made it easier for Kirchner to cement alliances with other
political leaders, such as several UCR Governors, who would
be unwilling to incorporate themselves into the PJ.
10. (C) Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold
internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this
year. He said that Kirchner does not want to demonstrate
disunity in the PJ while he is dealing with sensitive issues
like controlling inflation. Mazzon felt it would be better
to hold the PJ elections at the beginning of next year as a
way to kick off the election campaign season. Mazzon added
that the PJ did not need a national direction, as the party
is largely composed of provincial PJ parties that are well
run on the local level.
BUENOS AIR 00000902 003 OF 003
11. (C) Looking towards post-2007 elections, Mazzon said
President Kirchner would be more "sensible" and have more
experience.
--------------
Regional Politics
--------------
12. (C) On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was key to
ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta Humala
win in the Peruvian presidential elections would greatly
complicate regional relations. Mazzon said that if Chile
could work out an agreement with Bolivia on its access to the
sea -- resolving a sensitive national issue that has
seriously affected Bolivia's ability to export its gas --
Argentina and other countries in the region would have a much
easier time reaching an energy agreement with Bolivia.
Mazzon said he thought Humala would lose the run-off election
in Peru. If Humala was elected, however, he felt regional
relations, especially between Chile and Bolivia, would be
greatly complicated.
--------------
Comment
--------------
13. (C) The 2007 elections are a long way off, and any
speculation on the "official" candidates is still contingent
on the final decision of President Kirchner. When those
decisions are made, Carlos Mazzon will be main person behind
the scenes developing and implementing the electoral
strategy. Mazzon's closeness to the President makes his
comments on Kirchner's current mindset on the elections
valuable. Mazzon has differed with Kirchner in the past, for
example when he urged Kirchner to maintain his alliance with
former President Eduardo Duhalde last year. However, Mazzon
was quick to get behind the official line once the decision
was made to break with Duhalde, preserving his role in the
Casa Rosada. Mazzon is a masterful political operative that
has served three Peronist Presidents -- Menem, Duhalde, and
now Kirchner. We will continue our dialogue with him as we
begin to look toward the 2007 presidential elections.
GUTIERREZ