MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000595

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES
03/14/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Key international stories today cover US President
George W. Bush's alleged plan to destabilize Iran; the
possible impact of a hypothetical pre-emptive attack
against Iran; Argentine President Nestor Kirchner
receiving Haitian president-elect Rene Garcia Preval,
who thanked him for Argentina's participation in the
UN peacekeeping force in Haiti; Chilean President-
elect Michele Bachelet's inheritance and future; and
Bolivian President Evo Morales' need for "avoiding
unnecessary confrontations with the US."


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "Bush's plan to destabilize Iran"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (03/14) "The Bush
administration has launched a diplomatic, political
and financial campaign during the last few months in
order to wear down and, if possible, destabilize
Iran's toughest political and religious leaders as
part of its strategy to prevent the Iranian theocratic
regime from obtaining nuclear weapons.

"According to The Washington Post, the USG's plan
consists of increasing international pressure on the
UN Security Council, strengthening the US diplomatic
presence in Iran's neighboring countries, and
financing the Iranian opposition and civil society.


"Just seven hours after this investigation was
published, US President George W. Bush accused Iran of
promoting terrorism. He sustained that Iran is
contributing to destabilizing Iraq by providing
insurgent troops with explosives that will enable them
to attack the US troops deployed there since the 2003
invasion and Iraqi civilians."

- "The effects of a pre-emptive attack against Tehran"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading
"Clarin," writes (03/14) "Gwynne Dyer, Canadian
military historian, summarized what most analysts
believe would be the unavoidable consequences of a pre-
emptive attack against Iran from the US and/or Israel.

"The list is impressive - he predicted an overall
rebellion against the US intervention in Iraq led by a
Shiite majority and a global economic crisis as a
consequence of an abrupt interruption in the flow of
Iranian oil to the market, which could bring the price
to some 120 dollars. Dwyer does not believe, as others
do, that Tehran will attempt to block the Ormuz
Strait, which is strategic in the international oil
route, because if it does, it would invite the US to
militarily occupy its Northern border...

"... The US high-ranking military often leak to the US
media their restlessness every time Washington's
rhetoric escalates on the Iran issue... Military
sources have warned that today no one is sure about
Iran's capability for manufacturing nuclear bombs...

"... In this framework, does it make sense to embark
on a new armed conflict when the Iranian bomb would
not be made before George W. Bush leaves the White
House for good? More than a few analysts agree that
for Bush to embark on an armed conflict it is not
necessary for Iran to have the bomb or be close to
having it, but that the White House feels that Iran
could disregard the US demand and escape any
consequences whatsoever."

- "Bachelet's inheritance"

Rodrigo Orihuela, columnist of liberal, English-
language "Buenos Aires Herald," comments (03/149 "...
The main problem Lagos left for his former health and
defense minister to solve is Chile's famed and once-
admired privatized pension system, crudely imitated by
Argentina as from 1994 and lauded by US President
George W. Bush as recently as 2004.

"Socialist doctor Bachelet placed the reform of the
scheme at the core of her campaign platform, as did

her rightist rivals.

"... On the upside, Bachelet is handed an economy with
growing exports and a positive balance of payments...

"The auspicious Chilean balance of payments may well
serve the cause of other Latin American leaders eager
to strengthen ties with the US, such as Peru's
Alejandro Toledo, who met with Bush in Washington the
day before he went to Bachelet's inauguration.

"... A debate could well center on why neither the
model Latin American leftist administration nor the
best-known rightist government in the region have
worked towards building a strong industrial
structure."


3. EDITORIALS

- "Consensus for change in Bolivia"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (03/14) "During
the last few years, a confrontation among Bolivia's
political forces has added to the country's serious
economic and social problems, which made governments
fall and made apparent the inability of its leaders to
reach fundamental consensus... This chaos found a way
out through the conclusive majority that brought Evo
Morales to power...

"As a matter of fact, the (Bolivian) Congress has just
approved to call a Constituent Assembly and a
referendum to make progress on autonomies...

"... These are ways in which the country is seeking to
reach consensus based on the acknowledgment of its
multiple cultures, indigenous identity and diverse
regional interests. Based on this new constitutional
pact, Bolivia should find a production model that can
improve the living conditions of its inhabitants and
pave the way for political stability. This calls for
encouraging both local and foreign investment and
avoiding unnecessary confrontations with the US."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and
opinions by the cited news media and do not
necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views. The
Public Affairs Section does not independently verify
information. The report is intended for internal U.S.
Government use only. GUTIERREZ