ARGENTINA: IBARRA'S REMOVAL CHANGES THE BUENOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 000562

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: IBARRA'S REMOVAL CHANGES THE BUENOS
AIRES POLITICAL PANORAMA

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 00451


B. BUENOS AIRES 00407

C. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00141

Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (SBU) Summary: On March 7, the Buenos Aires City
Legislature voted to permanently remove Mayor Anibal Ibarra
from office. Although the required ten votes for removal
included mostly opposition legislators, the deciding vote
came from a Kirchnerista, Helio Rebot. Ibarra's removal
changes the political panorama in the Capital and the
strategies of many leading political figures for the 2007
elections. Those in the GOA and in the opposition who wish
to run for Mayor in 2007 or support a political ally for the
job now face a more difficult path forward. Ibarra's
departure is also exacerbating fissures in Macri's political
alliance, still feeling the effects of the recent loss of
four Lower House members and the departure of the
center-right Ucede party. The Ibarra trial has played into
the internal conflict within Kirchner's inner circle of
advisors, with Alberto Fernandez reportedly losing ground to
Planning Minister Julio De Vido and Legal and Technical
Secretary Carlos Zannini. End Summary.

SIPDIS


2. (SBU) In a closely watched vote on March 7, the
legislature of Buenos Aires narrowly reached the required
two-thirds majority on the special commission to permanently
remove embattled Mayor Anibal Ibarra from office. With most
of the opposition votes on the legislative commission never
in doubt, the decisive blow to Ibarra came from Kirchnerista
Helio Rebot's decision to support the Mayor's removal. POL
contacts inside the Buenos Aires city legislature report that
Rebot's decision against Ibarra was motivated by Rebot's
dislike of both Ibarra and Cabinet Chief and head of the
Buenos Aires Peronist Party Alberto Fernandez, who has been
Ibarra's biggest defendr in the Casa Rosada. With Ibarra's
removal, Deputy Mayor Jorge Telerman will serve out the
remainder of Ibarra's term until December 2007. (Note:
Telerman has been the acting Mayor since November 2005, when
the Buenos Aires legislature temporarily suspended Ibarra
pending his formal trial in the legislature. See Reftel A
for more on the impeachment proceedings. End Note.)


3. (SBU) Ibarra's removal changes the political panorama in
the Capital and the strategies of many leading political
figures for the 2007 elections. Propuesta Republica's (PRO)
Mauricio Macri, the most visible supporter of Ibarra's
removal, has now given up the idea of again running for Mayor
of Buenos Aires in 2007 and has instead begun to explore the
possibility of a presidential run, according to POL contacts
in the Macri camp. (Note: Macri unsuccessfully ran for mayor
in 2003, winning the first round vote, but losing to Ibarra
backed by President Kirchner in the second round. End Note.)
The deciding factors for Macri's decision were reportedly
polls showing that he would again win a hypothetical first
round vote for mayor and then lose in the second round, and
also the prospect of facing Telerman after two years of
experience on the job. Macri reportedly thinks it will be
difficult to beat Kirchner in 2007, but feels that even an
unsuccessful presidential bid would be better for his
political future than another loss in a mayoral race.
According to POL contacts in PRO, Macri's decision to
possibly run for the presidency, although it reportedly will
not be publicly announced for some time, is fueling a power
struggle inside Macri's inner circle as to who will be the
PRO candidate for Mayor in 2007. (Comment: Macri's
political alliance is still recovering from a number of
recent defections, including the departure of four national
legislators and the center-right Ucede party. End Comment.)


4. (C) A political advisor to Juntos por Buenos Aires leader
Diego Santilli, one of Macri's two blocs in the Buenos Aires
legislature, told Poloff that Santilli and other Macri
legislators with a Peronist background are considering
defecting to Telerman. According to the political advisor,
most of the Buenos Aires Peronists in Macri's camp are there
because they saw Macri as the best alternative to Ibarra
and/or because they dislike Alberto Fernandez. With someone
the Peronists are comfortable with now in the mayor's office,
many Macri Peronists are beginning to feel their interests
are better served outside of Macri's fractious alliance. The
political advisor lamented Macri's decision to support

BUENOS AIR 00000562 002 OF 002


Ibarra's removal, arguing that Macri allowed his personal
dislike for Ibarra to cloud his judgment. The advisor told
Poloff that a few months ago Ibarra offered Macri a deal.
For one Macri vote on the commission, either for Ibarra or in
abstention, Ibarra said he would not attack Macri during the
proceedings nor blame Macri if he was removed from office.
The political advisor lamented that Macri did not take that
deal because PRO's internal polling showed that Macri's
negatives had rebounded to the high levels before the October
elections due to Ibarra's public claims that the effort to
remove him was really a coup d'etat by Macri.


5. (SBU) Other leading political figures like Alberto
Fernandez and Vice President Daniel Scioli that hoped to
become Kirchner's candidate for mayor in 2007 now have to
resign themselves to the fact that Telerman, provided he
continues to perform well on the job, will possibly have
Kirchner's support for "reelection" in 2007. Former Foreign
Minister Roberto Lavagna, who many said was considering a run
for mayor or even president, announced the day after the
Ibarra vote that he would not seek elective office.


6. (SBU) Our sources report that the Ibarra trail has played
into the internal conflict within Kirchner's inner circle of
advisors, with Alberto Fernandez losing ground to Planning
Minister Julio De Vido and Legal and Technical Secretary
Carlos Zannini. Buenos Aires has been full of rumors in the
last few weeks of an impending Cabinet change that would,
among other things, include the replacement of Alberto
Fernandez as Cabinet Chief by one of a handful of long-time
"pinguino" associates of Kirchner (See Reftel B). (Comment:
As President Kirchner manages any changes to his Cabinet
personally and has made no statements on the issue, it
remains to be seen if Kirchner will in fact initiate the
personnel changes. End Comment.) Alberto Fernandez's main
role in the inner circle has been to be Kirchner's advisor
and advocate in Buenos Aires politics. With the defeat of
Bielsa in October and now Ibarra's downfall, it is argued
that Alberto Fernandez has lost a lot of prestige and utility
for Kirchner. (See Reftel C for more on Kirchner's inner
circle.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) Mayor Ibarra's removal -- in the face of polls
showing a majority of city residents favored Ibarra remaining
in office and against the long-term interests of most of the
major political actors in city politics -- demonstrates the
power that a vocal segment of the victims' families has been
able to exert over the city legislature. Ever since the
Dirty War experience of the last military dictatorship
(1976-1983),Argentines have had a profound aversion to any
loss of life with political overtones. From the death of two
piqueteros during demonstrations in 2002 to the recent death
of a policeman during a labor dispute in Santa Cruz, the
deaths of even a few individuals can have political
consequences. Despite the fact that the responsibility for
the deaths in the Cromagnon nightclub fire most clearly fell
on the club owners, from the beginning, many of the victims'
families and many city residents blamed the faulty system of
regulation that Ibarra presided over. Diputado Rebot pointed
to the "culture of impunity" that he said Ibarra fostered in
his speech before the Commission, moments before casting his
crucial vote.


8. (SBU) Ibarra's departure will make the path more
difficult for those in the GOA and in the opposition who wish
to run for Mayor in 2007 or support a political ally for the
job. Kirchner, through De Vido and Zannini, appears to have
already made peace with Telerman. However, given Ibarra's
past status as a Kirchner ally and Kirchner's recent
statement calling Ibarra "a friend," Ibarra's end is seen as
at least a minor defeat for Kirchner. A positive note for
Kirchnr, however, is that the removal of Ibarra also removes
the Cromagnon tragedy from the list of issues for the 2007
elections.



GUTIERREZ