IRAQ; THE AMIA CASE; SOUTH AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002595

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: IRAQ; THE AMIA CASE; SOUTH AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES;
AMBASSADOR WAYNE; 11/20/06; BUENOS AIRES



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend papers focus on the USG's possible shift on its strategy on
Iraq; the AMIA case probe and its possible use by the USG to urge
the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran; Brazil's plans
to unite South American military forces; and Ambassador Earl Anthony
Wayne's busy agenda in Buenos Aires.


2. OPINION PIECES

- "The US - Rice's turn to undo things"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international columnist of leading "Clarin,"
writes (11/18) "... At least since some 20 months ago, one of
Secretary Rice's closest aides, Philip D. Zelikow, has been drafting

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memorandums bearing little resemblance to the official view of White
House and the US Department of State ..., including a text in which
he warned that the occupation of Iraq could become a 'catastrophic
failure.'

"... Therefore, one should consider the possibility that Washington
will attempt to revive the peace process in the Middle East and
that, as part of the new conditions, the US will try to leave the
road of isolation and confrontation that Bush has maintained with
Syria and Iran."

- "We have always been partners"

Jorge Elias, international columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion,"
writes (11/19) "... Two days before mid-term US (legislative)
elections, the new US Ambassador, Earl Anthony Wayne, arrived in
Argentina, the country with the largest anti-US sentiment index in
the region since the time of Braden or Peron. By coincidence, the
Kirchner administration happened to remove former assistant
secretary Luis D'Elia due to his anti-US and anti-Israel

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statements...

"... the start of Wayne's mission also happened to coincide with
court progress over the AMIA case against former Iranian
authorities...

"As he presented his credentials, Wayne made it clear that no
country or person has all the answers to the current challenges. He
resorted to 'soft' power, that is, the ability to attract and
convince other governments through culture, ideals and politics
instead of subjecting them to gratuitous pressure.

"The US has a problem in Latin America - it is Venezuela's largest
trading partner due to its oil purchases but, at the same time, it
is the main target of Chavez's diatribes. The US discourse is
somehow going against its own interests...

"A country's willingness to cooperate in the resolution of crucial
issues not only depends on the US but also on the attraction it
conveys on others. In an agitated sea, Wayne moved like a fish in
water. He spoke little, but communicated a lot. He only omitted one
issue, the FTAA, due to the crisis unleashed by the Fourth SOA...

"US Assistant Secretary for Western Hemispheric Affairs Thomas
Shannon downplayed the counter-summit that was intended to irritate
Bush. He never admitted to any disagreement with Kirchner, of
hostile appearance but cordial approach. He also used 'soft power,'
which is more profitable than 'hard power,' if one wants discourse
to be in tune with action."

- "Argentina on maximum state of alert"

Joaquin Morales Sola, political columnist of daily-of-record "La
Nacion," comments (11/19) "... The current tension between Argentina
and Iran was inevitable. The Argentine Government ruled out breaking
off ties with Iran, but it has not dismissed submitting the case to
the UN Security Council in the event tension escalates.

"... Does this mean that Kirchner is distancing himself from Chavez
and getting closer to Washington? Julio De Vido often says that the
country has reached commercial deals with Chavez but that Argentina
and Venezuela have different political objectives. Kirchner, in
turn, has been indifferent to suspicion that the timing (of progress
on the AMIA case) coincided with the case against Iran sponsored by
the US and Europe.

"... According to Kirchner, 'the policy of my government does not
differ from that of the US and Europe regarding international
terrorism. In any case, the agreement existed prior to (the AMIA
prosecutors' decision).'"

- "The US will make use of the AMIA case in its case against Iran"


Ana Baron, leading "Clarin's" Washington-based correspondent,
comments (11/19) "The Argentine Judiciary will enter the world's
political scene by the US hand and for US benefit. The Bush
administration will use Argentine Judge Rodolfo Canicoba Coral's
request for the arrest of former Iranian government officials to
support its own search for international support to impose sanctions
on Tehran if it decides to expand its nuclear program.

"... The White House and US Department of State's reaction to the
announcement of Canicoba Corral's decision could not have been more
positive. They not only praised the Argentine courts but also
pledged cooperation for Argentine and Interpol authorities to arrest
those accused. During a meeting at the Argentine Embassy last week,
National Security Adviser Dan Fisk repeated his support for
Argentine Ambassador Jose Octavio Bordon. So did Ambassador Earl
Wayne with FM Jorge Taiana last Friday."

- "Kirchner, twists and outbursts"

Eduardo van der Kooy, political columnist at the leading Clarin,
writes (11/19) "Luis D'Elia's resignation and the progress made on
the AMIA case served President Kirchner to redirect his ties with
Washington, and also with Hugo Chavez, although in a different
direction.

"... Never before during his term in office has Kirchner received
such praise from the White House and the Department of State. This
flattery has reportedly started to bother him.

"... The new US Ambassador Earl Wayne did not make any serious
political objection to the Argentine Government during his meetings
with the top-brass members...

"... The progress made in the AMIA case could mark the
reconstruction of a deteriorated bilateral relationship with the
most powerful country in the world."

- "AMIA - the US renews its support for the AMIA bombing probe"

Leading "Clarin" (11/18) reports, "The US has reiterated its support
for the Argentine judiciary's decision to issue arrest orders
against former Iranian government officials due to their alleged
responsibility in the attack against the AMIA. This is what
Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne told FM Jorge Taiana during a meeting
at the Foreign Ministry, according to a US Embassy statement.

"According to the communiqu, Wayne welcomed the 'tenacious search
for justice against those who are guilty for this terrible attack'
against Argentina.

"The meeting, which lasted for fifty minutes, was requested by
Ambassador Wayne. Governmental sources confirmed that the US
Ambassador conveyed to FM Taiana White House support for the AMIA
judicial process just when the country's ties with Iran are at the
point of maximum tension. According to the sources, Wayne stressed
the Bush administration's satisfaction with the Argentine
(Government's) willingness to shed light on the attack."

- "Wayne's high-profile agenda has clear purposes"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (11/ 19) "With surprisingly high
profile and remarkable efficiency, thirteen days after his
inauguration as US Ambassador, Earl Anthony Wayne has already
represented the interests of his country in front of five
high-ranking ministers of the Argentine Government and made it clear
which are the issues that the USG considers crucial.

"Some of the issues that Wayne tackled during his meetings were
investment and bilateral trade, drug trafficking in the region,
diplomatic tension with Iran over the AMIA case and the US interest
to sell its technology for high-definition digital TV.

"... With unusual sincerity and a straightforward way of saying
things that should be imitated by his Argentine interlocutors, Wayne
devotedthe last 13 days to defending US interests, which have not
always been in line with ours."

- "The importance of being included in the US agenda"

Business-financial "InfoBae" reports (11/20) "Last year's SOA was a
turning point in the US-Argentine bilateral relationship. However,
when indifference seemed to be irreversible, the Republican
administration decided to again promote political and economic ties
between the two countries. The new US Ambassador to Buenos Aires,
Earl Anthony Wayne, had a busy week of meetings with high-ranking
government officials, which satisfied the Argentine Government...

Prevailing agreement (between the two sides) during the meetings are
an omen of a better bilateral relationship in times ahead. That's
good for the country."

- "US concerned about fake IDs just steps away from the Tri-Border"


Newspaper "Perfil" subheads (11/19) "While the US' complaint has not
been made formal yet, the Interior Ministry has already taken note
and is already planning to replace IDs by an intelligent card." The
paper reports (11/19) "The controversial election in Misiones to
attempt to reform the provincial Constitution and enable governor
Carlos Rovira to be re-elected continues to cause problems for the
Kirchner administration.

"The US Embassy in Buenos Aires has now shown its concern and taken
note of how easy it is in the province, just a few miles from the
Triple Border, to get a fake Identity Card. While the US concern has
not reached FM Taiana's office, a high-ranking Interior Ministry
government official confirmed this information to 'Perfil.'"

- "Brazil plans to unite South American military forces"

Eleonora Gosman, Sao Paulo-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
writes (11/19) "... The Brazilian Government is considering the
creation of a joint South American military force...

"The Brazilian Armed Forces are mistrustful due to the increased US
military presence in the region.

"... Brazil intends to attain military integration in the region
with the goal of defending the region's natural resources."


3. EDITORIALS

- "Consequences of the war of Iraq"

Leading "Clarin" editorializes (11/20),"Another consequence of the
war and anarchy gripping Iraq is the annihilation of its leaders,
professionals, intellectuals and scientists.

"... By dismantling the structure of Iraqi society, the US unleashed
civil war and a proliferation of armed groups and inter-religious
and sectarian clashes.

"Iraq does not have the minimum human resources and conditions to
face any post-war reconstruction, something that should also be
attributed to the lack of planning of the US invasion and occupation
of Iraq."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE