ARGENTINA: OPPOSITION EFFORTS TO FORM A COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 002385

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: OPPOSITION EFFORTS TO FORM A COALITION
TO OPPOSE KIRCHNER

Classified By: CDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 6 Charge and Poloff met with
former President and former Senator Federico Ramon Puerta,
who wanted to discuss his concerns over the status of
democracy in Argentina. Puerta expressed grave concern over
the likelihood of fraud in the October 29 Constitutional
Convention in Misiones Province to allow unlimited
Gubernatorial re-elections, and over the erosion of the
multiparty system in Argentina through a burgeoning trend
towards eliminating term limits. Puerta highlighted efforts
to build a coalition of like-minded non-Kirchnerista
Peronists to strengthen the Peronist opposition to Kirchner,
and plans to ally this coalition with other opposition
parties to defeat Kirchner in the ballotage of the 2007
Presidential elections. In separate meetings with Emboffs,
other opposition party members have expressed growing
interest in forming a broader coalition to challengeKirchner
in 2007. END SUMMARY.

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Threat to Democracy in Misiones
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2. (U) On October 6 Charge and Poloff met with former
President and former Senator Federico Ramon Puerta, who
wanted to discuss his concerns over the status of democracy
in Argentina. He said his concern focused first on the
efforts to change the provincial constitution in Misiones to
allow unlimited reelection of the Governor. Puerta
explained there are essentially two fronts of politicians
campaigning on this issue: current Governor Carlos Rovira's
group in favor of the constitutional change to allow
unlimited reelections, and Bishop Joaquin Pina's opposition
to changing the constitution. Pina is currently "six points"
ahead in polls, according to Puerta. This number has risen
two points since Kirchner visited the province in late
September. Puerta felt this demonstrated that, although
Kirchner enjoys high approval ratings in Misiones, his visit
to Misiones had negatively affected public opinion of
Governor Rovira's efforts to change the provincial
constitution, and that the people of Misiones do not support
the change. Puerta also felt that this might be the first
sign that public approval of Kirchner is slipping.


3. (U) Puerta indicated his desire to have international
observers participate in the Misiones elections on October
29, due to his strong suspicion that the only way for
Governor Rovira to effect the constitutional change would be
through fraud. He said that he thought fraud would be
impossible if the Constitutional Assembly were monitored by
an impartial international organization, like the Carter
Center. He had at first considered inviting Brazilian
monitors, but Brazil's ballotage for the Presidential
elections will be held the same day.

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Opposition Efforts to Ally
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4. (U) Puerta highlighted efforts to build a coalition of
like-minded non-Kirchnerista Peronists to strengthen the
Peronist opposition to Kirchner, and hopes to ally this
coalition with other opposition parties to defeat Kirchner in
the ballotage of the 2007 Presidential elections. The non-K
Peronists include former President Eduardo Duhalde,
Congressman Juan Jose Alvarez (NOTE: He was recently exposed
as having worked for SIDE during the military dictatorship.
END NOTE.),Salta Governor Juan Carlos Romero, and former
President Adolfo Rodriguez Saa. Rodriguez Saa and Governor
Romero are silent partners, since, according to Puerta, they
feel that they cannot publicly support the coalition without
facing political, personal, or professional repercussions.
Puerta believes that once the non-K Peronists form a strong
foundation, they can align with other opposition
figures--such as center-right leader Mauricio Macri, former
Econ Minister Roberto Lavagna, Neuquen Governor and
presidential candidate Jorge Sobisch, and even anti-K
Piquetero leader Raul Castells--to beat Kirchner in the
ballotage of the presidential elections in 2007. Leading
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio will almost
certainly be a candidate for President and Puerta speculated
that her candidacy will take a large number of votes away
from Kirchner. Puerta suggested that this speculation figures
prominently as part of the calculus behind believing the
broad coalition of non-K Peronists and other opposition
parties can beat Kirchner.


5. (C) In a separate meeting with Charge, prominent
businessman and national Peronist Congressman Francisco de
Narvaez also indicated his willingness to work with the
center-right opposition parties, like Mauricio Macri's
Propuesta Republicana(PRO) and the Union Civica Radical
(UCR). Nervaez has already announced his candidacy for
Governor of Buenos Aires Province and his support for Lavagna
for President. He told Emboff that he would like to see
Macri run for Mayor in the Capital. (NOTE: Narvaez is a
member of the El General group within the Peronist Party that
is in opposition to Kirchner and that aligns a number of
mostly pro-Duhalde Peronists. END NOTE.) Members of Neuquen
Governor Jorge Sobisch's party told Emboff in a separate
meeting that the party is meeting with UCR members, anti-K
peronists, and PRO representatives to explore the
possiblities of aligning to defeat Kirchner. (COMMENT:
Although Sobisch has already announced his candidacy for the
2007 Presidential elections, he has consistently received
less than one percent approval in polls. He is widely
considered to be a non-factor in the current run-up to the
2007 elections. END COMMENT.)



6. (C) COMMENT: If Misiones is really the microcosm of
Argentina that political analyst Rosenda Fraga has described
it to be, then we should start to see increased cooperation
among diverse political groups to oppose Kirchner and his
party. Bishop Pina's warnings about the threat to democracy
in Misiones has motivated an impressive coalition of
non-traditional allies to work together. This phenomenon
seems to be gaining traction at the national level, based on
Puerta's description of efforts by non-Kirchnerista
Peronists, and on other opposition parties' comments on
increased willingness to enter alliances. The surprising
results in the Brazilian Presidential elections have also
served as a lesson for Argentina; Ingacio Lula da Silva was
thought to be guaranteed an easy victory, but the resulting
ballotage has his reelection in doubt. Perhaps this example
has motivated the non-K Peronists and other opposition
parties to re-energize their efforts and consider broader
coalitions with new perspective. END COMMENT.
MATERA