Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUENOSAIRES2229
2006-09-29 20:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:  

A HISTORIAN'S VIEW OF KIRCHNER AND ARGENTINE

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL AR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
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INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 1736
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 002229 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: A HISTORIAN'S VIEW OF KIRCHNER AND ARGENTINE
POLITICS

Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 002229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: A HISTORIAN'S VIEW OF KIRCHNER AND ARGENTINE
POLITICS

Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Leading Argentine historian Jose Ignacio Garcia
Hamilton sees President Kirchner as largely reflecting the
opinions of the majority of the Argentine people. For Garcia
Hamilton, there are two great traditions that make up
Argentine political culture: the republican democracy
tradition best exemplified by the drafter of Argentina's 1853
Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi, and the populist welfare
state of Juan Domingo Peron. Garcia Hamilton sees Kirchner
as more Peron than Alberdi, but feels that the republican
tradition will place limits on Kirchner over the long term,
making it difficult, for example, for Kirchner to change the
Constitution in 2008 to allow him to run for a third term.
However, Garcia Hamilton thinks that Argentina's democracy is
weaker now than it was 20 years ago.


2. (C) On international relations, he argued that Kirchner's
verbal attacks against the IMF and foreign leaders and their
policies are popular with an Argentine public that still
feels they were victimized by foreign interests during the
recent economic crisis. Garcia Hamilton said that there is a
general feeling among Argentines that the country was
humiliated during the crisis, which has significantly
increased anti-U.S. sentiment in Argentina, fueled more by
jealousy than a sense that the U.S. did not help Argentina
during the crisis. He argued that there was little the USG
could do to improve relations with the GOA, other than to
avoid making diplomatic gaffes, because most of what the GOA
wants from the U.S., such as more foreign investment, is more
dependent on GOA policy than what the USG does. END SUMMARY.


--------------
Kirchner Reflects Argentine Public Sentiment
--------------


3. (C) On September 22, Poloff met with leading Argentine
historian Jose Ignacio Garcia Hamilton, during which Garcia

Hamilton gave his analysis of President Kirchner and the
current Argentine political situation in historical context.
He argued that Kirchner mirrors the opinions of the majority
of Argentines, which is reflected in Kirchner's high public
approval ratings. Following the 2001-2002 crisis, most
Argentines wanted a strong state that would ensure economic
recovery and political stability. Kirchner has met those
goals. He argued that most Argentines are happy with the
growing economy and are not that focused on the current
erosion of democratic institutions that they feel failed to
prevent the crisis.


4. (C) Garcia Hamilton said, however, that Argentina's
liberal democratic tradition would put limits on Kirchner
over the long-term. He argued that Argentines would not
tolerate, for example, Kirchner attempting to modify the
Constitution in 2008 to run for a third term. (Comment:
There has been a lot of discussion about this issue in the
local press recently, stemming from comments made by Kirchner
and others in the Casa Rosada that it would be good to change
the presidential term to five or to six years, as it was
before the last constitutional reform in 1994. Kirchner has
since denied that this is his intention, but Kirchner's
strong support of several provincial governors' attempts to
reform their provincial constitutions in order to be
reelected calls into question Kirchner's long-term intentions
in this regard. End Comment.)


5. (C) Garcia Hamilton said that Kirchner's weakening of
democratic institutions actually made the political system
more unstable over the long term and that Kirchner's economic
policies will eventually lead to an economic decline and
another crisis in the future. For Garcia Hamilton,
everything in the political system now depends on the

BUENOS AIR 00002229 002 OF 004


personal power of Kirchner. If Kirchner is weakened in the
future, there will be nothing to protect the system from
crisis. Garcia Hamilton said that throughout Argentine
history, the opposition to hegemonic parties developed from
within, which he argued would eventually happen to Kirchner.
Garcia Hamilton said that Kirchner's economic policies, such
as the price and utility controls and beef export ban, will
harm Argentina's economy in the long term. "Kirchner has an
odd mix of economic tendencies. He prefers the old Peronist
style of 'capitalism among friends' and is paternalistic, but
at the same time he says that he wants more foreign
investment."


-------------- --------------
Alberdi and Peron Wrestling for the Soul of Argentina
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Garcia Hamilton argued that in order to understand
Kirchner and the current political situation, you need to
understand Argentine history that produced the two dominant
trends in Argentine political culture: the republican
democracy tradition best exemplified by the drafter of
Argentina's 1853 Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi, and the
populist welfare state model of Juan Domingo Peron. Garcia
Hamilton described Argentina's heritage from three centuries
of colonial rule as "a tradition of privilege, mercantilism
and patrimonialism." Argentina ended the colonial era as a
poor, divided country with a comparatively small population.
Everything changed, however, in the middle of the 19th
century. "Alberdi and the other liberal thinkers of the
mid-19th century set Argentina on a strong path towards
political and economic development that equaled what was
happening in the United States at the time. Argentina tried
to break with its colonial past, encouraged immigration, and
instituted private property and individual rights, such as
the freedom of religion."


7. (SBU) The reforms of the mid-19th century, coupled with
Argentina's natural riches, led to an economic boom in the
late 19th and early 20th centuries, but Argentina's
development path was abruptly cut short by the 1930 coup, the
closing off of Argentina's export markets during the
depression, and the institution of Peronist populism in the
1940s. The 1930 coup broke Argentina's constitutional order
for the first time since Alberdi's 1853 Constitution. Garcia
Hamilton, echoing an argument Juan Jose Sebreli put forward
in a 2002 book, said that the 1930 coup was a logical
conclusion to decades of emphasis on nationalism and
militarism in Argentine public schools. "In order to
integrate the millions of immigrants and to preserve
Argentine culture, the elites promoted nationalism and
militarism in the public school system, based on the German
and Japanese models. Children were taught that the ideal
Argentine leaders were the soldier that died poor and the
gauchos. This was a divergence from the philosophy of the
republican democracy of Alberdi."


8. (SBU) The onset of the world depression hit Argentina's
export-driven economy hard. Garcia Hamilton argued that
during the Depression of the 1930s, Argentines began to see
Argentina as a victim, a view that many Argentines continue
to hold. During World War II, Argentina lost access to
imported products because of the war and the Allied embargo
imposed on Argentina because of its failure to declare war on
the Axis powers until the closing days of the conflict.
Largely inefficient industries were developed to replace the
loss of imports for the domestic market. Originally designed
as a temporary measure during the war, these noncompetitive
industries were kept alive in the post-war period through
decades of import substitution, high-tariff policies first
initiated under Juan Peron's administration.


9. (SBU) For Garcia Hamilton, Peron's first presidency
carried with it much of the militaristic traditions of the
previous decade and a half, but also infused Argentine
political culture with a welfare state mentality and

BUENOS AIR 00002229 003 OF 004


dramatically altered the Argentine social structure with the
imposition of a fascist, corporatist economic system. "From
Evita Peron, Argentines learned that the best government is
the one that gives gifts to the people." Peron studied
economics in Turin, Italy in the 1930s during Mussolini's
fascist dictatorship. Upon assuming the presidency in 1946,
Peron sought to implement the fascist corporatist model in
Argentina, with organized labor unified and controlled in the
General Confederation of Workers Union (CGT) and big industry
in the Industrial Union of Argentina (UIA). Peron, following
the Mussolini model of the state control over the
relationship between capital and labor, personally set wages.
One of Peron's lasting legacies is the strong, politicized
labor movement that has bedeviled reform-minded governments
ever since.


10. (C) Garcia Hamilton sees President Kirchner as more
Peron than Alberdi, but emphasizes that Argentina's
republican democratic tradition is still alive in the
Argentine polity. "Both traditions exist simultaneously in
the Argentine people." Garcia Hamilton added, "The Kirchners
try to imitate the Perons, particularly Cristina, who has
modeled herself on Evita Peron. The Argentine people have
tolerated this imagery, but they will not do so permanently.
The Kirchners act like monarchs, and this runs counter to
Argentina's democratic values."


11. (C) Garcia Hamilton argued that Argentina's democracy is
weaker today than it was 20 years ago. "Despite the threats
20 years ago from the military, Argentina's Congress, Justice
system, academic institutions, and free press were stronger
then and had a larger role in contributing to the democracy
than they do today. Many journalists today are afraid to
write anything that will anger the government. Most
businessman and opposition leaders today are also afraid to
seriously oppose the government. We have also possibly
entered a new era of McCarthyism with the incident that
happened to Juan Jose Alvarez." (Note: The local press
revealed recently, allegedly based on a Casa Rosada source,
that opposition Congressman Juan Jose Alvarez had worked for
the state intelligence agency SIDE during the military
dictatorship. Alvarez has been one of the chief dissident
Peronist backers of the presidential candidacy of Roberto
Lavagna, whose campaign was dealt a blow by the Alvarez
revelations. End Note.)

--------------
Kirchner's Abrasive Foreign Policy Popular
--------------


12. (C) On international relations, he argued that
Kirchner's verbal attacks against the IMF and foreign leaders
and their policies are popular with an Argentine public that
still feels they were victimized by foreign interests during
the recent economic crisis. "Kirchner's anti-foreign
rhetoric is popular in Argentina. They like to see their
President appearing to defend the country's interests
abroad." Garcia Hamilton said that there is a general
feeling among Argentines that the country was humiliated
during the crisis, which has significantly increased
anti-U.S. sentiment in Argentina, fueled more by jealousy
than a sense that the U.S. did not help Argentina during the
crisis.


13. (C) When asked what the USG could do to improve
relations with the GOA, Garcia Hamilton replied that there
was not a lot we could do, other than avoiding diplomatic
gaffes. "This government is very sensitive to any perceived
slights. However, most things that this government wants
from the U.S. are dependent on Argentine government action,
not the USG. For example, Kirchner wants to attract more
U.S. foreign investment, but he will have to restore investor
confidence in order to do this." However, Garcia Hamilton
did urge the U.S. to "put limits" on Kirchner through behind
the scenes diplomacy. He felt that Kirchner has too few
domestic limits on his actions and argued that the USG could
help to keep Kirchner from making extreme decisions.

BUENOS AIR 00002229 004 OF 004




14. (C) One area that Garcia Hamilton expressed concern
about was Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's influence on
Argentina and the region. "Venezuela's inclusion in Mercosur
has fundamentally changed the nature of the organization. It
is affecting the institutional quality of the organization
and will also have a damaging effect on Argentina's
institutions over the long term."

--------------
Comment
--------------


15. (C) A good grasp of Argentine history is critical to the
understanding of the country's current political situation,
as Argentina has been condemned so often to repeat the
mistakes of the past. Past periods of hegemonic political
control have always ended in instability throughout Argentine
history, from the Conservative hegemonic rule of the late
19th and early 20th centuries, to the UCR hegemonic rule
between 1916 and 1930, and the Peronist hegemonic period of
1946-1955, and to a degree 1973-1976. Past hegemonic leaders
lost public support over time when their actions weakened or
closed channels of dissent through the debilitation of
Argentina's democratic institutions. Everything in the
political system depended on the personal power of the
hegemonic leader, and when that leader's power was weakened
through crisis, from Hipolito Yrigoyen in 1930 or Juan Peron
in 1955, the whole system collapsed.


16. (C) Since las October's legislative elections, Kirchner
has passed from being a transition figure bringing political
and economic stability to Argentina after a serious crisis,
to another in a long line of Argentine hegemonic leaders.
Kirchner's recent moves to largely strip the Argentine
Congress of its budget-making authority and increase his
control over the Judiciary, as well as his vocal attacks on
unfriendly journalists, all fit within the Argentine
hegemonic leader mold. Unable to check Kirchner's actions,
the weak and divided political opposition lack any real
authority in the political system. Unlike past hegemonic
leaders, however, Kirchner does not face the threat of a
military intervention in politics. However, as the
experiences of former Presidents Raul Alfonsin and Fernando
de la Rua demonstrate, the military has not been the only
threat to stable governance in Argentine history.


17. (C) Currently it appears that Kirchner has nothing to
worry about -- he is very popular and well situated to win
reelection if he chooses to run for reelection next year, as
is widely assumed. However, as he contemplates another four
years in power -- or even four years of indirect rule, if he
decides to have his wife Cristina run for President in 2007
-- he undoubtedly remembers the experience of Carlos Menem,
who was very popular during his first term during an economic
boom period, but who fell into disrepute during his second
term as the economy fell into recession, and later into a
full-blown crisis. If Kirchner hopes to avoid Menem's fate,
he will need to do what no other hegemonic leader has done in
Argentine history -- curb his appetite for greater power and
instead strengthen Argentina's democratic institutions. Only
then will Argentina develop a political system that can
withstand future crises. Kirchner's actions to date do not
inspire much optimism in this regard.


MATERA