ARGENTINA: MEETING WITH OPPOSITION RADICAL CIVIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002214

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: MEETING WITH OPPOSITION RADICAL CIVIC
UNION PARTY LEADERS

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01978

B. BUENOS AIRES 01324

Classified By: CDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and
Poloffs met with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party
leaders to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine
multi-party system. They explained that while they are
concerned for the health of their party as Kirchner tries to
recruit from within their ranks, they remain optimistic about
the UCR's chances for a strong showing in the presidential
elections next year. They said the UCR will probably support
ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna as their presidential
candidate next year. The Radicals said that they see
Kirchner as moving to solidify his power and that this makes
him more difficult to beat in elections but not invincible.
They said Argentina currently does not have a foreign policy,
owing to a lack of vision of what role Argentina should play
in the international arena. END SUMMARY.

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Health of the UCR
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2. (SBU) On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and Poloffs met
with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party leaders over
lunch to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine
multi-party system. National Congressman and President of
the Radical Party Robert Iglesias, National Senator and
President of the Senate Radical Party Bloc Ernesto Sanz,
President of the Radical Party National Convention Dr. Adolfo
Stubrin, and BA city Radical Party leader, former
Congressman, and former Minister of Economy Dr. Jesus
Rodriguez attended the lunch on behalf of the UCR. The group
explained that they are concerned for the health of their
party as Kirchner tries to recruit from within their ranks.
Nevertheless, they remain optimistic about the UCR's chances
for a strong showing in the presidential elections next year.
They feel there is plenty of time for Kirchner's popularity
to wane and for their candidate to gain. The key challenge
to the UCR and other opposition parties is how to explain the
danger of weak institutions to an electorate that is pleased
with the health of the economy. However, they conceded the
UCR is split over how to counter Kirchner's power. One camp
thinks the party should concentrate its efforts within the
UCR to counter Kirchner, while the other thinks the party
should make alliances with other opposition groups. They
agreed that ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna would likely
end up being the UCR presidential candidate.

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UCR Views on Kirchner and Foreign Policy
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3. (SBU) The Radicals said that they see Kirchner as moving
to solidify his power and that this will make him more
difficult to beat in next year's elections. They claimed,
however, that Kirchner's aura of invincibility was damaged
when he failed to win more than 50 percent of the vote in
last October's legislative elections. They said Kirchner
controls the national discourse by never holding press
conferences, and that newspapers act as tools of the
government by not publishing stories because of government
pressure or by publishing reports that Kirchner's people have
drafted. They claimed Kirchner is the only leader in the
world that does not meet with his cabinet, leaving him
unadvised on many issues. Furthermore, the people around
Kirchner are afraid to tell him when things may not be going
well. They feel he ""jumps"" on issues without thinking of a
strategy first, making his politics and his governing very
reactive and short term -- characteristics they say could
lead to a long-term decline in his popularity.


4. (SBU) The Radicals said that Argentina currently does
not have a foreign policy. They said that Argentina is
unsure of what role it wants to play in the international
arena, and therefore has no organized foreign policy. They
see Argentina's interaction with Venezuela as simply
business. They feel that Venezuelan President Chavez is
probably just making money off of Argentina and that there is
no deeper foreign policy basis for the relationship.


5. (C) COMMENT: For a party which barely drew double digit
support in last year's elections and is deeply divided
internally, their optimism about the future is hard to take
very seriously. Likewise, their view that Kirchner was
weakened by his failure to receive more than 50 percent of
the vote in the October 2005 elections is not validated by
Kirchner's near 70 percent approval ratings. However, the
UCR remains the only non-Peronist party with a national
infrastructure and this by itself will guarantee the party a

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role in next year's elections, either as a vehicle for
Lavagna or as a partner in a broader opposition coalition.
END COMMENT.


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