MEDIA REACTION EVO MORALES-U.S.-ARGENTINA,

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000212

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION EVO MORALES-U.S.-ARGENTINA,
PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, WORLD SOCIAL FORUM-CHAVEZ;
BUENOS AIRES 01/26/06


1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Key stories today focus on the strong U.S. interest in
Bolivia and President Kirchner's alleged decision to
play a regional role in moderating Evo Morales;
election outcomes for Hamas and implications for the
Middle East peace process, and the World Social Forum
organized by Chavez in Caracas, with strong
accusations of manipulating the event to satisfy his
political goals and promote the government's social
plans, while lavishly spending public funds on
publicity.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "U.S. Wink to Uphold Evo Morales"

Jorge Elias, daily-of-record, center-right "La Nacion"
international analyst, writes (01/26) ".... (During
his meeting with President Kirchner some days ago) A/S
Shannon showed the same interest in Bolivia George W.
Bush had expressed at the Mar del Plata Summit.

"Such interest in the GOA's regional influence led a
Foreign Ministry source to comment that 'Bolivia is
our business, more than it is Brazil's.'

".... Kirchner's presence at Morales' inauguration on
Sunday... wasn't overlooked by the Bush
administration.

"In La Paz, Shannon expressed to Foreign Minister
Taiana his satisfaction with the meeting he had had
with Morales on Saturday... they agreed that one
wasn't going to give in on the issue of coca
plantations and the other wasn't going to yield on his
apprehension vis--vis cocaine.

"Between these extreme positions, according to the
source, Kirchner felt the need to uphold Morales and,
at the same time keep Hugo Chavez in check, who's
tempted to set up a base in the areas where he
contributed to (Morales') victory.

"At some point, the Bush administration made the
mistake of engaging Mexico -- a country outside the
Southern Cone -- with Bolivia, due to its interest in
importing gas. And it paid a high price for this.

".... Kirchner and Lula, due to their proximity,
became the umpires of this crisis and guarantors of
governance. However, Brazil is dependent on a large
provision of Bolivian gas, a situation that leaves
Argentina less dependent on energy and in a better
position to take over - as a priority - Morales'
eventual success...."

- "Worrying About Evo"

James Neilson, Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires
Herald" international analyst, says (01/26) "....
Morales won big in the elections not just because most
of his compatriots thought anything would be better
than more of the same, but also because many
appreciated that the only way to stop him from
destroying the next government would be to let him
head it... Bolivians decided to try putting one of
their country's most notorious arsonists in charge of
the fire brigade in the hope it would make him change
his ways.

".... Like so many other people in this part of the
world, Morales is fond of berating 'neoliberalism'...
but simply declaring the beast dead... will not free
him from the need to get aong with it. For Bolivia to
progress under his government, he will have to do what
it takes to create a business-friendly environment by
improving the legal system, tearing up bureaucratic
red tape and opening up to the outside world...."

- "From Cairo to Amman, Islamic Groups Move Forward in
the Ballot Boxes"

Dolores Tereso, daily-of-record, center-right "La
Nacion" international columnist, opines (01/26) "Most
likely, this isn't what President Bush had in mind


when he launched his democratization campaign in the
Middle East.

"From the Palestinian territories to Lebanon, and from
Egypt to Jordan, the progress of democracy in the
region has led to an undesired effect, at least from
Washington's viewpoint: instead of upholding moderate
and pro-West parties, elections are strengthening
Islamic Fundamentalist groups that are critical of the
U.S.

"The second place obtained by Hamas yesterday in the
Palestinian elections is the last example of this
phenomenon.

".... These Islamic organizations are proposing a
message of change vis--vis the failure of governments
that perpetuate themselves in power, but are unable to
solve the problems of the people. And, in part,
Washington's policies in the region also seem
responsible for the strengthening of these groups.

".... By pushing forward democracy (in the Middle
East) the U.S. risks these radical Islamic groups may
obtain legitimacy through elections, and turn their
countries into anti-U.S. theocracies.

"Therefore, Washington faces a dilemma: its support
for democracy doesn't allow it to ban the
participation of these organizations - many of them
even referred to as 'terrorist' -- from elections.

"But there are also those who remember what took place
in Algeria -- where making the Islamic Salvation Front
illegal in 1992 led to a civil war -. They believe
that including these groups in political life is the
best way to force them to leave violence behind. Once
they enter politics, they realize that it's better for
them to drop their weapons.

".... This is what the most optimistic sectors expect
from Hamas.

".... The major question mark is whether political
participation may turn these groups into moderate
parties, respectful of democracy, or if, instead, they
will follow Iran's steps, where the Islamic regime
keeps sending disturbing signals to the Western world,
with its calls to 'destroy' Israel and the resumption
of its controversial nuclear program.

"There's something Washington must bear in mind:
albeit with controls in the electoral process,
Ahmadinejad was also elected in the ballot-boxes."

- "Terror's Internal Battle"

Marcelo Cantelmi, leading, centrist "Clarin"
international editor, opines (01/26) "The immediate
conclusion of these elections, the objective fact, is
that the terrorist group Hamas obtained more political
space and importance via the democratic mechanism
promoted by the White House as the linear solution to
Middle East calamities. As we know, terrorism results
from extreme poverty and the lack of a future: a
contradiction not only fuelled by the Palestinians.
Therefore, there's another aspect we can't ignore. The
fact of going to elections generates a rift in Hamas'
ruthless speech and announces an internal and crucial
battle within this group. The lack of political
parties in the Middle East and most Arab countries is
the reason and cause of the crisis and even of terror.
A door to the unknown has been opened. Hopefully, it
won't lead to a dead-end street."

- "A Strategic Change that Triggers Several Political
Effects"

Telma Luzzani, on special assignment in Jerusalem for
leading, centrist "Clarin", says (01/26) ".... The
first thing we must underscore in the Palestinian
elections is precisely its strict support for the
broadest rules of democracy.

".... One of the most significant facts is Hamas'
decision to enter politics. In truth, this


organization hasn't automatically abandoned its
principles by which it doesn't acknowledge the State
of Israel, or its suicidal attacks as method of
battle, or the creation of an Islamic State with
Jerusalem as capital. Perhaps it will never set them
aside or it may be that, in time, it might change all
of them.

"But we must also admit that, as a political movement,
Hamas includes a broad spectrum of hawks and doves.
Much will depend on the pressures or the international
aid so that the more moderate lines, the ones that
pressed to take part in these elections, will prevail
over those that believe victory can only be achieved
through weapons.

"Hamas' strategic change has also produced political
effects. Although the official figures aren't known
yet and supposedly Al Fatah will maintain its majority
in Congress, clearly Arafat's party has lost its
political hegemony forever. The other side of the same
coin is the appearance of a strong opposition party in
the political scenario of the Palestinian Authority:
Reform and Change (Hamas.)

".... In the international field and in its relations
with Israel, the presence of Hamas is more an obstacle
rather than a relief for the Palestinians. Due to its
terrorist actions, both the U.S. and Israel have said
they won't negotiate with a government in which they
take part...."

- "Chavez: Spendthrift at World Social Forum"

Conservative, business-financial and political "Ambito
Financiero" says (01/26) "This week, in Caracas,
Chavez is exultant with the thousands of Latin
American leftist activists that are frantically buying
the merchandising with the Bolivarian leader's image.
The World Social Forum, which this year moved from
Porto Alegre to the Venezuelan capital, doesn't count
on the presence of any Latin American president except
Chavez, who, in solitude, is harassed by accusations
of dark deals in the financing of the WSF.

"Chavez's omnipresent figure is denounced by the
opposition as manipulating the event to satisfy his
political means. Even Caracas left-wing parties
distrust him. According to opposition leader Alfredo
Ramos, from left-wing party Causa Radical, 'This Forum
is an act organized by the President to project
himself as a Latin American leader, but using public
funds.' WSF organizers believe the Venezuelan State
may have granted 70,000 dollars to finance the event
via 53 public organizations, but the opposition and
the press estimate that the event might cost 9 million
dollars.

".... In addition, the government is taking advantage
of the event to promote its social plans...."


3. To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and
opinions by the cited news media and do not
necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views. The
Public Affairs Section does not independently verify
information. The report is intended for internal U.S.
Government use only.

GUTIERREZ