Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUENOSAIRES1743
2006-08-04 13:04:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:
WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; CUBAN TRANSITION; AMBASSADOR WAYNE
how-toVZCZCXYZ0010 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHBU #1743/01 2161304 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 041304Z AUG 06 FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5452 INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2// RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001743
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; CUBAN TRANSITION; AMBASSADOR WAYNE
08/02/06
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001743
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; CUBAN TRANSITION; AMBASSADOR WAYNE
08/02/06
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT
Today's key international stories include the war in the Middle East
and the need for putting an end to the escalation in violence; Fidel
Castro's transferring power to his brother; and US Ambassador to
Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, having to deal with local political
leaders during the Argentine election campaign.
2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES
- "Europe is disoriented"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by Juan Gabriel
Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at Universidad San
Andres, who writes (08/02) "Europe's lower international stature in
current world politics is apparent. Regarding any important topic or
event with a global impact, Europe's position is increasingly
inconsistent.
"The current crisis in the Middle East is an example that Europe not
only does not offer a different alternative from that of the US, but
it also lacks the aptitude of generating effective consensus...
"Divided and docile, the EU ended up 'de facto' legitimizing the
humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East.
"... In brief, Europe is disoriented, which affects its collective
identity and diplomatic projection. It does not object to US
arrogance, it lacks its own influence capability and does not have
strategic partners aside from Washington..."
- "'The fact that Castro transfers power to his brother does not
imply a transition'"
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (08/02) "Swaying between cautiousness and hopes that Fidel
Castro's regime in Cuba is coming to an end, the Bush administration
said yesterday that if the Cuban leader's sickness leads to a
democratic transition, the US is ready to support it with economic
and humanitarian cooperation...
"During a press interview, US Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez
warned the Cuban-American community that it should not interfere in
the process, and he added that Cuban-Americans will not attempt to
recover the houses they lost when they left the island.
"... Asked about a possible contradiction between the objective of
the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba to undermine the
regime's succession strategy and current statements that the USG
does not want third parties to influence the transition on the
island, Gutierrez answered, 'What we want is that the Cuban people
may choose their next leader. We have promoted free elections from
the very beginning. We do not see any contradiction in this. It is a
noble objective.'"
- "Cuba, far from the China or the Soviet Union's transition road"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by Alvaro
Vargas Llosa, head of the Center for Global Prosperity at the
Independent Institute, who writes (08/02) "Whether Fidel Castro's
health status is terminal or not, the Cuban transition has started.
At this point, no one knows what kind of transition it will be or
how long it will take, but the symbolism represented by the transfer
of power to Raul Castro is enough to tell us that the half-century
of one-man government is almost certainly over. What comes ahead
will not be Fidel Castro's dictatorship.
"What kind of transition will Cuba have? Being a communist regime,
there are five possible scenarios, and at least three of them no
longer seem feasible in Cuba.
"The Chinese, the Polish and the Soviet transition models are
unlikely for Cuba because they implied change, but on the island
they could represent a continued state of affairs.
"... This leaves two possible transitions. One would be 'Fidelism'
without Fidel. In other words, it would be a military dictatorship
under Raul Castro. The real transition would not start until his
death or inability... The other, more likely scenario would be the
struggle for power among different factions."
- "The US will maintain the embargo while Communism prevails in
Cuba"
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (08/02) "With news about Fidel
Castro merged in shadows, the USG announced yesterday that it is
getting ready to support a democratic transition in Cuba, but it
also warned that it will maintain the trade embargo imposed on the
island as long as the Communist regime prevails.
"On state of alert and in expectation of news from Havana, the White
House has already dismissed the possibility of bridging gaps with
Raul Castro...
"... The Republican administration tried to downplay expectations of
exiled Cubans and the fears of those living in Cuba, who fear a US
military invasion or the irruption of thousands of followers of
Fulgencio Batista who are determined to expel them from their former
properties."
- "The transition on the island has already started"
Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by Jorge
Castro, head of the Institute for Strategic Planning, who writes
(08/02) "Fidel Castro's political and military transfer of power
implies a change in the nature of the political regime in force
since 1959.
"... The regime has crystal-clear military features, which emerged
from a history of domestic war and 'international delegations.'
"The transition has been implemented in Cuba regardless of the fact
that Fidel Castro's distance from power could be temporary... and
everything indicates that the Army will be the focus of the Cuban
political process."
- "There was no transition but succession"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by
international columnist Jorge Elias, who writes (08/02) "There was
not a transition. Castro temporarily transferred power to Castro.
Therefore, there was not a transition but a succession...
"... After over four decades of a useless economic embargo, which
ended up being Fidel Castro's favorite excuse, the Bush
administration, through the Committee for the Assistance of a Free
Cuba, is confident that a transition will end up in a democracy that
will be in alignment with the region.
"For the time being, nothing indicates that Raul Castro does have
this purpose. Nothing indicates, either, that the 80 million dollars
that the USG is planning to use in support for Cuban opponents will
bear fruits. They have a manufacturer's shortfall - Bush's stamp.
"All those funds will be irremediably related to Iraq in general and
to Abu Ghraib in particular, Guantanamo, Katrina, and the Middle
East. All those funds will be repelled by Castro's supporters in the
region."
- "An exaggerated simplification"
Leading "Clarin's" general editor Ricardo Kirschbaum writes (08/02)
"After overcoming the strong obstacles placed by anti-Castro
Washington lobbyists to his nomination, the new US Ambassador to
Buenos Aires has been confirmed and will come in September.
"Earl Anthony Wayne, one of whose first important tasks was
assisting Alexander Haig in his frustrated mediation during the
Malvinas (Falkland) islands war, knows the symbolic and true
importance of being the White House's representative among local
political leaders. Obviously enough, this real influence is part of
the panorama envisioned by every local political leader of the
national situation. In this world, when one speaks of 'the Embassy,'
everyone knows what one is talking about and does not need any
clarification whatsoever.
"Just like political leaders carefully handle their ties with the
Embassy, American diplomats are also cautious, particularly with
elections ahead... Recent charges against Lavagna based on his
alleged meeting in Washington with a high-ranking USG official at
the US Department of State... have reinforced Wayne and his aides'
cautiousness.
"In the slippery times of election campaigns, there is an
exaggerated tendency to oversimplify scenarios without taking into
account the historic framework... As well as opponents have
exaggerated official deviations, the official party reacted in the
same way by seeking to recreate historic conflicts.
"In this framework, Wayne hears the word Braden and is scared away
as if it were a ghost."
3. EDITORIALS
- "Stop the war in the Middle East"
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (08/02) "A strong diplomatic
pressure and a resolute attitude of the countries having the largest
influence in the Middle East should stop the escalation of violence
that was unleashed by Israel's military offensive against Lebanon.
"... Israel's self-justification, which is based on the principle of
legitimate defense, is weakened by the magnitude and consequences of
its military offensive.
"On the other hand, the Israeli offensive will not bring larger
guarantees to Israelis and implies a severe retreat and a serious
blow to its harmony with Arab countries...
"It is time to remember that there are no unilateral way outs of the
war in the Middle East. The international community, the US and the
main countries involved should find an urgent formula for a
ceasefire."
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires
MATERA
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; CUBAN TRANSITION; AMBASSADOR WAYNE
08/02/06
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT
Today's key international stories include the war in the Middle East
and the need for putting an end to the escalation in violence; Fidel
Castro's transferring power to his brother; and US Ambassador to
Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, having to deal with local political
leaders during the Argentine election campaign.
2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES
- "Europe is disoriented"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by Juan Gabriel
Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at Universidad San
Andres, who writes (08/02) "Europe's lower international stature in
current world politics is apparent. Regarding any important topic or
event with a global impact, Europe's position is increasingly
inconsistent.
"The current crisis in the Middle East is an example that Europe not
only does not offer a different alternative from that of the US, but
it also lacks the aptitude of generating effective consensus...
"Divided and docile, the EU ended up 'de facto' legitimizing the
humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East.
"... In brief, Europe is disoriented, which affects its collective
identity and diplomatic projection. It does not object to US
arrogance, it lacks its own influence capability and does not have
strategic partners aside from Washington..."
- "'The fact that Castro transfers power to his brother does not
imply a transition'"
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (08/02) "Swaying between cautiousness and hopes that Fidel
Castro's regime in Cuba is coming to an end, the Bush administration
said yesterday that if the Cuban leader's sickness leads to a
democratic transition, the US is ready to support it with economic
and humanitarian cooperation...
"During a press interview, US Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez
warned the Cuban-American community that it should not interfere in
the process, and he added that Cuban-Americans will not attempt to
recover the houses they lost when they left the island.
"... Asked about a possible contradiction between the objective of
the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba to undermine the
regime's succession strategy and current statements that the USG
does not want third parties to influence the transition on the
island, Gutierrez answered, 'What we want is that the Cuban people
may choose their next leader. We have promoted free elections from
the very beginning. We do not see any contradiction in this. It is a
noble objective.'"
- "Cuba, far from the China or the Soviet Union's transition road"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by Alvaro
Vargas Llosa, head of the Center for Global Prosperity at the
Independent Institute, who writes (08/02) "Whether Fidel Castro's
health status is terminal or not, the Cuban transition has started.
At this point, no one knows what kind of transition it will be or
how long it will take, but the symbolism represented by the transfer
of power to Raul Castro is enough to tell us that the half-century
of one-man government is almost certainly over. What comes ahead
will not be Fidel Castro's dictatorship.
"What kind of transition will Cuba have? Being a communist regime,
there are five possible scenarios, and at least three of them no
longer seem feasible in Cuba.
"The Chinese, the Polish and the Soviet transition models are
unlikely for Cuba because they implied change, but on the island
they could represent a continued state of affairs.
"... This leaves two possible transitions. One would be 'Fidelism'
without Fidel. In other words, it would be a military dictatorship
under Raul Castro. The real transition would not start until his
death or inability... The other, more likely scenario would be the
struggle for power among different factions."
- "The US will maintain the embargo while Communism prevails in
Cuba"
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (08/02) "With news about Fidel
Castro merged in shadows, the USG announced yesterday that it is
getting ready to support a democratic transition in Cuba, but it
also warned that it will maintain the trade embargo imposed on the
island as long as the Communist regime prevails.
"On state of alert and in expectation of news from Havana, the White
House has already dismissed the possibility of bridging gaps with
Raul Castro...
"... The Republican administration tried to downplay expectations of
exiled Cubans and the fears of those living in Cuba, who fear a US
military invasion or the irruption of thousands of followers of
Fulgencio Batista who are determined to expel them from their former
properties."
- "The transition on the island has already started"
Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by Jorge
Castro, head of the Institute for Strategic Planning, who writes
(08/02) "Fidel Castro's political and military transfer of power
implies a change in the nature of the political regime in force
since 1959.
"... The regime has crystal-clear military features, which emerged
from a history of domestic war and 'international delegations.'
"The transition has been implemented in Cuba regardless of the fact
that Fidel Castro's distance from power could be temporary... and
everything indicates that the Army will be the focus of the Cuban
political process."
- "There was no transition but succession"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by
international columnist Jorge Elias, who writes (08/02) "There was
not a transition. Castro temporarily transferred power to Castro.
Therefore, there was not a transition but a succession...
"... After over four decades of a useless economic embargo, which
ended up being Fidel Castro's favorite excuse, the Bush
administration, through the Committee for the Assistance of a Free
Cuba, is confident that a transition will end up in a democracy that
will be in alignment with the region.
"For the time being, nothing indicates that Raul Castro does have
this purpose. Nothing indicates, either, that the 80 million dollars
that the USG is planning to use in support for Cuban opponents will
bear fruits. They have a manufacturer's shortfall - Bush's stamp.
"All those funds will be irremediably related to Iraq in general and
to Abu Ghraib in particular, Guantanamo, Katrina, and the Middle
East. All those funds will be repelled by Castro's supporters in the
region."
- "An exaggerated simplification"
Leading "Clarin's" general editor Ricardo Kirschbaum writes (08/02)
"After overcoming the strong obstacles placed by anti-Castro
Washington lobbyists to his nomination, the new US Ambassador to
Buenos Aires has been confirmed and will come in September.
"Earl Anthony Wayne, one of whose first important tasks was
assisting Alexander Haig in his frustrated mediation during the
Malvinas (Falkland) islands war, knows the symbolic and true
importance of being the White House's representative among local
political leaders. Obviously enough, this real influence is part of
the panorama envisioned by every local political leader of the
national situation. In this world, when one speaks of 'the Embassy,'
everyone knows what one is talking about and does not need any
clarification whatsoever.
"Just like political leaders carefully handle their ties with the
Embassy, American diplomats are also cautious, particularly with
elections ahead... Recent charges against Lavagna based on his
alleged meeting in Washington with a high-ranking USG official at
the US Department of State... have reinforced Wayne and his aides'
cautiousness.
"In the slippery times of election campaigns, there is an
exaggerated tendency to oversimplify scenarios without taking into
account the historic framework... As well as opponents have
exaggerated official deviations, the official party reacted in the
same way by seeking to recreate historic conflicts.
"In this framework, Wayne hears the word Braden and is scared away
as if it were a ghost."
3. EDITORIALS
- "Stop the war in the Middle East"
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (08/02) "A strong diplomatic
pressure and a resolute attitude of the countries having the largest
influence in the Middle East should stop the escalation of violence
that was unleashed by Israel's military offensive against Lebanon.
"... Israel's self-justification, which is based on the principle of
legitimate defense, is weakened by the magnitude and consequences of
its military offensive.
"On the other hand, the Israeli offensive will not bring larger
guarantees to Israelis and implies a severe retreat and a serious
blow to its harmony with Arab countries...
"It is time to remember that there are no unilateral way outs of the
war in the Middle East. The international community, the US and the
main countries involved should find an urgent formula for a
ceasefire."
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires
MATERA