WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; ROME CONFERENCE; USJ ROLE IN LATIN

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001679

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; ROME CONFERENCE; USJ ROLE IN LATIN
AMERICA; NORTHERN KOREA; US-BRAZILIAN ENCOUNTER ON FARM SUBSIDIES;
STATUS OF AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S NOMINATION AS US AMBASSADOR TO
ARGENTINA; 07/27/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Today's international leading stories include the status of the war
in the Middle East; the outcome of the Rome Conference; the US
reconsidering its role in Latin America; the threat posed by North
Korea; the upcoming encounter between US and Brazilian authorities
on farm subsidies; and the status of former A/S Wayne's nomination
as US Ambassador to Argentina.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "A war with more doubts than certainties"

Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin" on
special assignment in Jerusalem, writes (07/27) "Both from a
political and a military viewpoint, the war that has just begun has
accumulated a mountain of doubts. In just two weeks, the bombing
that has turned Lebanon into pieces does not seem to have had a
conclusive impact on Hezbollah, which continues punishing Northern
Israel.

"Therefore, and even though Israel only targeted Hezbollah, only the
ruins of Lebanon remain...

"There is a big debate in Israel on whether the decision to attack
and the invasion, which is now focused on South Lebanon, was right.
PM Olmert decided to attack right after he knew that the guerrillas
had trapped two soldiers on a bordering post.

"... The Haaretz newspaper made public former Defense Minister Moshe
Arens' statement that the military campaign is mismanaged and that
it will only strengthen guerrillas. He summarized 'This will be a
disaster for Israel.'"

- "The Rome Conference did not come to terms on a cease fire"

Julio Algaaraz, Rome-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
writes (07/27) "As expected, the international conference on
Lebanon, which gathered in Rome yesterday for more than three hours,
was neither a success nor a failure. It only issued a
seven-paragraph statement, but not the unattainable, magic formula
of an immediate cease fire.

"The foreign ministers of the fifteen countries gathered under US
and Italian sponsorship, approved asking for an 'urgent' truce,
called for a conference to raise donations to help a destroyed
Lebanon, open humanitarian channels and call for a meeting under the
UN umbrella in order to create an international military force that
will separate contenders on the border between Lebanon and Israel.

"An immediate ceasefire is today a utopia because Israeli troops and
Hezbollah's Shiite guerrillas are fighting just a few kilometers
away from the border, in Lebanon. Hezbollah, which is supported by
Syria and Iran, will only accept an immediate ceasefire in exchange
for prisoners. Israel, which is supported by the US, demands an
immediate release of the two captured soldiers and Hezbollah's
disarmament and withdrawal toward the North so that it cannot attack
again."

- "The US discusses what its regional role will be in the aftermath
of the Cordoba summit"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion's" Washington-based correspondent, Hugo
Alconada Mon, writes (07/27) "The Mercosur summit, which was held in
Cordoba last week, has opened a debate among the experts that are
closely following Latin America's political evolution about who were
the winners and losers...

"Left-wingers used the Summit to object to US President George W.
Bush. Right-wingers used it to criticize Presidents Nestor Kirchner,
Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. While the Republican administration
remained silent, it took the summit to verify 'who is who' in the
agitated South American politics.

"According to the former US Assistant Secretary for Latin America,
Otto Reich, the most important thing was 'the absence of an outcome'
of the meeting in a 'negative' framework for the (Argentine)
Government.

"Reich told 'La Nacion' that 'the Argentine Government did not save
face.' 'The negative impact is for Kirchner, who let Chavez and
Castro turn a session that should have been a serious one into a
personal show, to the extreme that international media did not even
report the event.'



"Reich's conclusions are quite different from those of the analysts
from the Council of Hemispheric Affairs, a left-wing organization.
They believe that the Summit will be remembered as 'the moment of
truth for Bush's presidency' regarding Latin America, because it
made sure that the region got 'emancipated' from Washington and that
Mercosur is today 'a more mature alliance.'

"Moises Naim, editor of prestigious magazine 'Foreign Policy,' also
criticized (US President) Bush's foreign policy. But, most
importantly, he believes that Bush should change his strategy toward
Latin America.

"The White House and the US Department of State opted for tactical
silence... A Republican administration source said that 'It was a
political rather than economic summit, and some tensions were
perceived inside the bloc.'"

- "Farm subsidies - the US and Brazil will hold a 'meeting of
reflection'"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (07/27) "Brazilian
Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and USTR Susan Schwab will hold a
'meeting of reflection' on Saturday after the suspension of global
trade negotiations.

"According to Roberto Carvalho de Azevedo, Brazilian Director of the
Economic Department at the Foreign Relations Meeting, the meeting,
which will be held in Rio de Janeiro, will not be a 'negotiation'.
'We will not be negotiating anything. This will be a meeting of
reflection.'

"... In some statements published by Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper,
Amorim said the meeting with USTR Schwab has been 'an unequivocal
demonstration of involvement, and the wish to further discussions'
that are intended to reach an agreement at the WTO... I trust US
President George W. Bush's wish and political interest in reaching
an agreement.'"

- "More delays in appointing a new US Ambassador"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (07/27) "With time ticking down, the US Department of State
has made moves for the US Senate to approve Earl Anthony Wayne's
nomination as the new US Ambassador to Argentina before its recess,
but there has been no news until last night.

"A diplomat who knows Wayne well told 'Clarin' 'We think his
nomination will be confirmed but we do not know whether they will
have time before the recess.' According to the diplomat, US
Department of State officials were negotiating with Senator for
Nevada John Ensign to have him lift the obstacles he placed on Mr.
Wayne's nomination. Time is running out because if he does not do it
before Friday, Wayne's confirmation will be postponed until
September, October or indefinitely.

"If Wayne's nomination is not approved before Friday, (US President)
Bush could appoint him during the Congressional recess, just like he
did in the case of Otto Reich...

"However, it seems unlikely that he'll do it with Wayne for a couple
of reasons. The ones who objected to his nomination are not
Democrats but senators who are representing the interests of the
Cuban-American community, to which Bush partly owes his election
success in a controversial triumph in Florida...

"Secondly, the legislation allowing this kind of appointment during
Congressional recesses was established only in cases of vacancies at
key posts like, for instance, the (US) Embassy in the former Soviet
Union. As time went by, the White House has used this legislation to
appoint candidates who were rejected by the US Congress, but these
kinds of nominations are badly seen by public opinion.

"Everything indicates that if Wayne's nomination is not confirmed by
the US Senate before the recess and it is indefinitely postponed,
his number two, Mike Matera, will be in charge of the US Embassy in
Buenos Aires for a long time after the departure of Lino
Gutierrez."


3. EDITORIALS

- "North Korea vs. the world"

An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (07/27) "North
Korea's authoritarian regime, which is led by Kim Jong Il, is hard
to define according to international criteria. It is an autocratic



and impenetrable government that agitates the ghost of 'dangerous
foreign enemies' to maintain its people submerged in nationalism...
In this way, the North Korean regime has managed to confront the
rest of the world, and this situation does not seem to shock it.

"North Korea wants to 'handle its own destiny' without any contact
whatsoever with the rest of the world...

"Today, North Korea is the most dangerous proliferator of WMD in the
world... To this threat, North Korea has added that of missiles...

"It is not surprising that the UN Security Council has issued
Resolution 1695, which condemns North Korea's missile tests...

"Meanwhile, North Korea has only taken 45 minutes to fully reject
said resolution and maintain a firm and allegedly imperturbable
attitude in defiance of the rest of the world."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

MATERA