Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUENOSAIRES1584
2006-07-17 20:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Buenos Aires
Cable title:  

MIDDLE EAST; THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTIONS ON NORTH

Tags:  KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION 
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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1584/01 1982036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 172036Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5246
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001584 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTIONS ON NORTH
KOREA; STATUS OF AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S NOMINATION AS US AMBASSADOR TO
ARGENTINA CUBAN SUCCESSION ENERGY ISSUES; 07/17/06


UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001584

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTIONS ON NORTH
KOREA; STATUS OF AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S NOMINATION AS US AMBASSADOR TO
ARGENTINA CUBAN SUCCESSION ENERGY ISSUES; 07/17/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Local papers lead with the escalation of the Middle East violence;
disagreement at the UN Security Council regarding a call for
ceasefire; UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea; the
status of Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's confirmation as US
Ambassador to Argentina; and the succession of power in Cuba.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "Escalation"

Paula Lugones, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes
(07/17) "The war in the Middle East is dramatically escalating.
Hezbollah showed that it can target key Israeli points and kill
people at will.

"The Israeli response was of unthinkable proportions... and did not
make any distinction between Hezbollah and civilians...

"Of course, Israel has the right to recover its captured soldiers.
However, as in the Gaza Strip, it punished an entire population in
its attempt to release them. Israel is seeking to execute an
'exemplary punishment' and wants to annihilate Hezbollah, but its
devastating offensive will fuel more hatred in the Arab world.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is smiling."

- "Disagreement at the UN on ceasefire"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (07/15) "Yesterday, Lebanese Ambassador to the UN Nouhad
Mahmoud accused Israel of violating all international law
conventions by launching a 'brutal attack' against his country.

"During a UN Security Council meeting, Mahmoud urged its members to
establish a ceasefire and put an end to the air and maritime
blockade imposed by Israel on Lebanon...

"While it is rare that the UN Security Council emergency meetings
serve to find a solution to the conflicts all over the world..., at
least they always reveal the political positions of each of its
members. Yesterday's meeting was not an exception. A large majority
condemned the Israeli attacks against Hamas militants in Gaza and
against Lebanese targets. While others are sympathetic to Israel,
such as the US, explained that those attacks were launched in its

own defense.

"US Ambassador John Bolton reiterated that every country has the
right to its own defense. However, he expressed his concern over the
fragile Lebanese democracy and reiterated his call for the Lebanese
government to disarm Hezbollah. This is a contradiction in itself,
because no weak government would be able to dissolve Hezbollah.

"Most attendees termed Israel's attacks as 'excessive' and
'disproportionate.' In this regard, disagreement was so profound
that the Council did not adopt any resolution to prevent the
conflict from becoming a regional war."

- "The 'little war' of economic chaos"

Gustavo Sierra, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes
(07/16) "The Israeli attack on Lebanon and Gaza is just the surface
of the conflict. The deeper issue is the struggle for power in the
Middle East between the US and Iran. And everything associated with
this, is chaos and heading for world economic disorder.

"... In this framework, with Iraq imbalanced for three years now and
without any prospect of normalization, the region that Bush viewed
as a jungle of democracies after the Saddam's downfall is more
unstable today than it has ever been in last 20 years.

"The key to putting a brake on Israel's counter-offensive and
supporting the moderate governments of Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon
itself is in the hands of US President George W. Bush. But, once
again, his short and retrograde view only made him say that 'Israel
has the right to defend itself.' He is not aware of the fact that
this 'little war' is perfect for Iran to win time and continue with
its nuclear program."

- "Fueling future bursts of hatred"

Leading "Clarin" carries an opinion by international analyst Oscar
Raul Cardoso, who writes (07/16) "... If anything is clear, it is
that there is no possible legal justification in international law
for Israel to have started what it did in Lebanon - it started a
non-declared war against a sovereign country which did not pose any


danger to it, based on the attacks of Hezbollah. Regarding ethics,
it is clear that the death of civilians and the destruction of
non-war infrastructure are against the Judeo-Christian tradition.

"... Israel needs is to stop in order to prevent further future
damage against its own security.

"It is fueling future 'retro-explosions' of hatred and resentment,
just like the US-UK coalition in Iraq..."

- "Big disagreement between Bush and Putin over the crisis in the
Middle East"

Leading "Clarin" reports (07/16) "The war in the Middle East is part
of the G8 agenda in San Petersburg, the first G8 summit ever held in
Russia. The beginning of the encounter was cold and there were some
points of disagreement - US President George W. Bush blamed
Hezbollah for violence while Putin shifted the blame to Israel.

"The two countries' leaders also disagreed on issues like trade,
democracy and geopolitics...

"Bush believes it is clear that Hezbollah is responsible for
capturing soldiers and launching missiles into Israel, and he will
ask to include a statement regarding this in the declaration... Bush
also criticized the Palestinians and Syrians. Meanwhile, Putin also
criticized Israel for having bombed its Northern neighbor, and urged
to make 'maximum efforts' in order to achieve peace.

"The two leaders made mutual praising statements. However, witnesses
of the private encounters pointed out that there were many frictions
between the two delegations."

- "The UN Security Council sanctions Northern Korea"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (07/16) "After eleven days of
negotiations that ended up in intensifying China and Russia's
resistance, the UN Security Council adopted yesterday a resolution
that imposed sanctions on Northern Korea for its missile tests.

"The resolution was adopted unanimously and bans every
country-member from trading with Northern Korea any material that
could be used for its nuclear and missile program, as well as the
transfer of funds for the same purposes. It also 'condemned Northern
Korea's multiple launchings of ballistic missiles on July 5, 2006'
and asked Pyongyang to 'suspend any activity related to its
ballistic missile program.' The resolution also urged Northern Korea
to resume multilateral negotiations on its nuclear and missile
program.

"After this decision, US Ambassador John Bolton said that the world
should be ready for Pyongyang's eventual decision to dishonor the
resolution."

- "Disagreement hinders the UN Security Council"

Alberto Armendariz, on special assignment in New York for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/15) "Hindered by
disagreement among its members, the UN Security Council did not
reach a deal over a call for ceasefire, which was asked by Lebanon
to put a brake in Israel's military incursions in its territory.

"... Israel's position was fully supported by the US, which on the
previous day vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling Israel
to put an end to the occupation of the Gaza Strip.

"... However, the ambassadors of the 15 countries making up the UN
Security Council criticized Israel's 'exaggerated' reaction to use
'excessive military force' in damaging infrastructure, which ended
up killing and injuring civilians."

- "When hawks rule in the Middle East"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin,"
writes (07/15) "... Today's reality in the region is an ascending
spiral of chaos. The 'hawks' of all aspects of the
Arab-Palestinian-Israeli conflict have taken hold of the day.

"Hezbollah is profiting from chaos... Iran is taking advantage of it
too. The current situation is allowing for a delay the West's
political offensive against its nuclear program...

"What about Israel? It is advisable to ask about the non-visible
agenda of its escalation. French President Jacques Chirac asked
whether (Israel had) the intention 'to destroy Lebanon' behind
formal reasons.



"In spite of its complex nature, the problem may be reduced to some
basic features. The US's stubbornness to privilege Israel at any
price is the root of the 'intangible' nature of the Middle East
peace.

"John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, from the Universities of
Chicago and Harvard, sustained... that 'Israel is no longer a US
strategic partner as it was during the Cold War but a 'strategic
burden,' and, nevertheless, it manages to hold captive Washington's
policy in the region."

- "A tough internal dispute stalls confirmation of the US
Ambassador"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/16) "The position of US
Ambassador to Argentina could be vacant until next September or
October due to a dispute between the US Department of State and the
US Cuban lobby. Meanwhile, the Republican administration is
preparing to change three of the main U.S. spokespersons for Latin
America.

"The Cuba lobby is also attempting to wield influence on two other
positions seen as 'strategic', that of (US) Ambassador to the OAS...
and (US) Assistant Secretary for Latin America at the US Pentagon...


"Earl Anthony Wayne's nomination for US Ambassador to Argentina
suffered a second setback at the UN Senate Foreign Relations
Committee last June 29 when his was the only nomination not
approved.

"Republican Senator for Nevada, John Ensign, blocked his nomination
due to the pressure of Cuban exiles...

"... The offensive against Wayne is based on a dispute in which he
acted as Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs, and
he objected to a budgetary assignment for TV Marti...

"Wayne expressed doubts about the need for the transmission...
According to a source, this unleashed a confrontation with the lobby
of Cuban exiles', which responded with a 'demonstration of power.'

"Now, the US Department of State is negotiating with Senator Ensign
to unblock Wayne's nomination, which for those who are most
optimistic could happen by the end of this month."

- "An escalation that threatens to expand in the region"

Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes
(07/15) "There are two elements that are beginning to be seen
clearly. This war scenario in the Middle East can be more
catastrophic than it currently is. And secondly, the crisis already
has created a gravestone for Israel's unilateral plan of withdrawal
from Gaza and the West Bank...

"... Ehud Barak has just sustained that war could expand to
Syria...

"Behind Syria, but particularly behind Hezbollah, Iran's challenging
power is standing. The more war expands, the bigger the chaos. Iraq
is an example of this, where today the US is looking for a way out,
is an antecedent of only betting on a military solution as a means
to solve a conflict that calls for another type of solution."

- "At 80, Fidel continues being a legend"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (07/15) front-pages an opinion piece by
writer Tomas Eloy Martinez, who writes "Most iron-handed leaders
have a superstitious view of their own death. They do not tolerate
men they subdued to imagine a future in which they will no longer be
present. Speculating about their eventual successors often cost them
a fast fall in disgrace. Fidel Castro is an exception to this crazy
rule.

"A long time ago, he appointed his brother Raul as his successor and
last June Raul himself spoke about what may occur in Cuba after
Fidel's death, with the harshness that inevitable realities
deserve.

"... Against some analysts' assumptions, neither Raul will preside
over a more flexible and open government than that of his brother,
nor will the US show a better disposition to hold talks with him.
Everything leads to the assumption that the blockade (one of the
major and stubborn mistakes of the US policy) will be maintained,


and just a few things will change."

- "Energy kills ideology"

Santiago O'Donnell, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," writes
(07/16) "Hugo Chavez and Alvaro Uribe have little in common. One is
Bush's 'ghost' and the other is his best ally... However, the other
day they were together when they announced the construction of a gas
pipeline that will unite the Colombian coast on the Pacific Ocean
with the main Venezuelan oil refinery.

"... The idea is to use the gas pipeline to sell cheap oil to the
impoverished Central American countries.

"... Meanwhile, the 'cop' is sleeping. Adam Isaacson, head of
programs at the Center for International Politics in Washington,
explained... 'The USG is not concerned about the construction of a
new gas pipeline between Venezuela and Colombia... Simply because -
the US does not live on gas imports. It only imports 15 per cent of
the gas it uses...'

"The situation would be very different if instead of a gas pipeline,
Uribe and Chavez decided to build an oil pipeline in the same
location... Isaacson explained 'If the plans to build an oil
pipeline progress, we can expect strong pressures from Washington to
put an end to the project.' In other words, do not bother with
oil."


3. EDITORIALS

- "International conflicts and possible impact on the country"

An editorial in business-financial "El Cronista" (07/17) reads
"There has been an escalation of violence in some potentially
dangerous points of conflict, which were recently 'dormant'...

"In the specific case of the confrontation between Israel and the
Palestinians and between Israel and the Lebanese extremist
forces..., the plan is to speed up actions in order to convince that
in the loss-loss game, the other side will have the largest damage
during the process.

"... The significant implied danger is that domestic or foreign
political circumstances limit the maneuvering room of leaders to put
an end to the escalation of violence.

"... Argentina's ability to face relatively short confrontations is
relatively good. There are no signs that the country can enter
long-scale confrontations... Therefore, the best that local
political leaders can do is making progress on pending issues, so to
prevent current circumstances from becoming veils for disregarding
our commitments."

- "International shock"

Conservative "La Prensa" carries an editorial (07/17) "Once again,
the Middle East is on the verge of an open war between sovereign
countries. With oil barrel at an unprecedented value and the US (the
only superpower capable to put the planet in order) trapped in Iraq,
prospects are gloomy...

"... According to an expert, 'Iran and Syria believe that by
intensifying violence, they will strengthen their position in their
conflicts with the US and Europe and will demonstrate that they are
the ones who have the key to a solution of the confrontation between
Israel and the Arabs.' If this is the plan of the Syrian-Iranian
axis, it runs the risk of suffering a blunt defeat...

"No one wants to return to the nightmare of civil war, but the truth
is that today Hezbollah is operating with an intolerable impunity...
Within this framework, Israel has seemingly decided to put an end to
the problem of instability on its Northern border. However, two
regional powers that are hostile to the West and promoters of
Islamic extremism are on its way, and they could openly join the
battlefield. A big-scale war is on the horizon."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website
at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ