THE US AND THE MEXICAN ELECTIONS; WTO DOHA ROUND; MIDDLE

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001441

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: THE US AND THE MEXICAN ELECTIONS; WTO DOHA ROUND; MIDDLE
EAST; VENEZUELAN OIL; EX ARGENTINE ECONOMY MINISTER LAVAGNA'S
STATEMENTS ABOUT CHAVEZ; ARGENTINE JUDICIAL SECURITY 06/27/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Today's most important international stories include the main points
of the US-Mexican bilateral agenda vis-`-vis upcoming Mexican
presidential elections; the main issues that need to be tackled in
the upcoming WTO Doha Round; the impact of the Israeli soldier's
kidnapping on the Middle East peace process; facts and figures on
Venezuelan oil production; former Argentine Economy Minister Roberto
Lavagna's statements about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; and an
editorial assessing Argentine judicial security.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "The US, the focus of the Mexican election campaign"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (06/27) "... Having a
3,000-kilometer common border with Mexico, the US eagerly expects
the outcome of this Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico. The
Bush administration wants to collaborate on a solution for drug
trafficking and criminal gangs with the new government as soon as
possible.

"The immigration reform is also a top priority on the bilateral
agenda, with over 500,000 people entering the US through the desert
every year.

"Disagreement over NAFTA is the other focus. And its handling could
change a lot according to who wins the presidential election."

- "WTO Doha Round will move its last pieces in Geneva"

Business-financial "El Cronista" (06/27) reports "The ministers of
Commerce of the 149 WTO countries will hold a new 'crucial' Doha
Round meeting. They will define the negotiation modalities in
agricultural and industrial markets. According to WTO head Pascal
Lamy, those are issues in which 'much work' still needs to be done.

"The ministers will meet in Geneva... to establish a new set of
agricultural and industrial tariffs as well as farm subsidies, the
two thorniest issues in the multilateral debate and on which the
other topics of negotiation depend."

- "The consequences of an action"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin,"
writes (06/27) "... Israeli Guilad Shalit, who was captured near the
Gaza Strip, is the first Israeli soldier who has been captured by
rebels, and, therefore, he is making the Israeli government confront
a 'kidnapping.' Shali was captured after performing an action in
Israel when there is no war confrontation between the two sides.

"... Clearly, the soldier's murder will have a devastating impact on
any negotiating effort... The Palestinians' apprehension of the
soldier reveals the existence of a tunnel connecting Gaza to Israel.
Who can say that there are not other completed or ongoing works?

"Will Israeli PM Ehud Olmert feel compelled to at least partially
recover the control of his country in Gaza through military
intervention? From all standpoints, this could imply a significant
retreat.

"... Things are no better on the other side of the conflict. This
further poisons Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abas' efforts to revive some
diplomatic relations and forces him to face possible escalation. The
situation has worsened even within Hamas - the attack suggests that
there are groups of Hamas that do not fully respond to its political
leadership, which holds a majority in Congress."

- "Doubts about Venezuelan oil"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by contributor
Andres Oppenheimer, who writes (06/27) "According to a US South
Command internal report about long-term oil production in Latin
America, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will most likely have
problems in maintaining his country's domestic production, while
fulfilling his promise to help provide 'energy' to his neighbors.

"... Many US oil experts are skeptical about Venezuela's official
information...

"I have concluded that it is hard to know who is providing precise
information about Venezuelan oil. However, independent oil experts
seem to agree that Chavez will not be able to meet his ambitious
promises of energy aid while maintaining or increasing local
production.



"If he is lucky enough, he could do one thing or the other, but it
is unlikely he will satisfy both, particularly if oil prices start
to stumble, which many experts predict will occur."

- "'People want alternatives'"

Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" reprints a Reuters
interview with former Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna
(06/27) "Roberto Lavagna, former economy minister and architect of
Argentina's economic rebound, won't say he aims to run for president
next year, but he is relishing speculation about his candidacy that
has put the government on the defensive.

"... Like political hopefuls and heavyweights all over the region,
Lavagna made sure to define how he feels about Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez, the anti-US leader seeking to spread his influence t
throughout Latin America.

"He likened Chavez's influence in the region to a 'sickness.'

"Lavagna said Argentina must align itself with what some have called
the pragmatic left in South America, rather than the more radical
Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales, in part to help lure greater
foreign investment.

"Lavagna said Kirchner has moved closer to Chavez and increased the
state's role in the economy, pointing to the government's takeover
of a water company, and its assertion of greater control over the
transport sector rather than spending more on education and health
and security."


3. EDITORIALS

- "Argentina, Spain and investment"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (06/27) "(Argentine)
President Nestor Kirchner's recent official trip to Spain may be
labeled positive, as long as the presidents of the two countries
emphasized they both intend to make strategic progress on their
alliance. However, Spanish investors still have some doubts..., they
do not seem to have been adequately targeted, particularly when it
comes to judicial security issues.

"... It is not enough to point out that there is no better judicial
security than that of a country that has had sustained economic
growth for 44 months in a row. The criterion according to which
capital flows where there are good business opportunities,
regardless of the risk posed by changing game rules is limited and
obtuse.

"When businessmen ask for judicial security for their investment
they think of something else. They need stable economic rules and
labor regulations; they do not want authorities to interfere in the
companies' cost structures (as has happened lately) or to order an
overnight ban on certain exports with the excuse that local
consumption comes first.

"While these discrepancies are not solved..., prevailing
difficulties will prevent Argentina from becoming an attractive
country for the world and its investment."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website
at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ