MEDIA REACTION ZARQAWI'S DEATH; IRAN;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001323

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ZARQAWI'S DEATH; IRAN;
MICHELLE BACHELET AND EVO MORALES; HUGO CHAVEZ; DARFUR
06/11/06;BUENOS AIRES



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend papers lead with the implications of Al-
Zarqawi's death; the chances for a diplomatic solution
on Iran; the ties between the Chilean and Bolivian
administrations; "what to do" with the Chavez
administration; and the Darfur genocide.

Leading "Clarin" carries an editorial on the new
impetus to the war in the Middle East.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "Al Qaeda promises 'ferocious' retaliation"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (06/12) "Al
Qaeda's branch in Iraq threatened to launch large-
scale 'ferocious attacks' that will make 'the enemy
shiver,' and it insisted it will maintain its strength
in spite of the death of its leader Abu Mussab Al
Zarqawi. This warning increases fears that Zarqawi's
killing has not put an end to violence in the country.

"... US General George Casey, commander in Iraq, said
the army has taken the message 'very seriously'... and
that it is prepared to face the eventual terrorist
response."

- "When death plants riddles"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading
"Clarin," writes (06/10) "... If he did not receive
weapons or money from Washington, Al Zarqawi was in
fact the beneficiary of a propaganda effort from the
US. The US attempted to make him appear as a threat
that was bigger than life itself...

"Just a few months ago, newspapers like 'The
Washington Post' and 'The Wall Street Journal'
published official documents in which the USG pointed
out the sense of a continued Al Zarqawi 'balloon.'
Furthermore, they reported on the six times Washington
had certain information about Al Zarqawi's whereabouts
and, for unknown reasons, chose not to act."

- "Zarqawi's violent demise"

Gwynne Dyer, contributor to liberal, English-language
"Buenos Aires Herald," comments (06/12) "... Like many
religious fanatics, Zarqawi hated people of his own
religion whom he saw as heretics, he hated them even
more than infidels, and therefore, he had no
compunction about blowing Shiite Arabs up in large
numbers simply because they were Shiite.

"He saw a Sunni-Shiite civil war as the best way of
destabilizing the government that the US occupation
was trying to install in Baghdad, as well as the best
way to ensure the emergence of a permanent base for
Islamist radicals in the Sunni Arab parts of the
country, which would probably end up beyond Shiite
control even after an eventual US withdrawal.

"Zarqawi is dead, but he most likely achieved his
purpose. Baghdad central mortuary is now receiving
close to fifty mutilated bodies each day, almost all
of them victims of sectarian killings, and every month
the number rises... The situation in Iraq will
probably get much worse, but it is already past
saving."

- "An unimportant business"

Jorge Elias, international columnist of daily-of-
record "La Nacion," writes (06/11) "... Except for
Bush and his administration, and the American public,
Al Zarqawi's death had a relative impact, like that of
the capture of Saddam Hussein. It did not raise
euphoria or compassion, but more doubts, particularly
in response to the virtual counter-offensive amid the
largest uncertainty - how to get out from where they
should have never entered...

"... On many occasions, Bush has suggested that it is
preferable to fight terrorism in Baghdad than in
Washington, DC. Based on this premise, he overhauled


national security doctrine. To what extent did those
remote battles... stop generating those shortfalls in
the system for which the US has subsequently paid too
high a price in later years?

"Democracy did not flourish in Iraq as a mirror of the
good example for the Arab world. What did flourish was
precisely what they wanted to repel - terrorism."

- "The last diplomatic way out"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by
Joshka Fischer, former German vice Foreign Minister,
who writes (06/12) "The Iranian crisis is deepening...
There is no reasonable doubt that Iran wants to own
nuclear war capability. But the gist of the issue is
its ambition to become a hegemonic Islamic and
regional power, and in this way, become a counterpart
of the most powerful nations. Here lies precisely its
difference vis--vis Northern Korea, which wants to
manufacture nuclear weapons in order to deepen its
isolation. Iran's purpose is obtaining regional
domination and perhaps something else.

"... The Bush administration should lead the Western
initiative in resolute and direct negotiations with
Iran. If negotiations are successful, it will also
have to be willing to agree upon proper guarantees.
International credibility and legitimacy will be
crucial in this confrontation. A cold, calculated US
leading role will be required to achieve this purpose.

"Offering a 'big business' to Iran would unite the
international community and would present a convincing
alternative to Iran. If Iran agrees to it, nuclear
investigations in Natanz would be suspended during
negotiations. If Iran rejects it or does not honor its
commitments, it would become isolated from the world,
and the implementation of other measures would be
justified. Russia nor China would support the other
members of the UN Security Council.

"However, such an initiative would only be successful
if the Bush administration leads Western countries and
sits to negotiate with Iran... Time is running out for
a diplomatic solution."

- "Bachelet and Evo make us rethink politics"

Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Manuel
Antonio Garreton, sociologist and professor at
Universidad de Chile, who writes (06/12) "... I am
under the impression that in the current political
scenario of the region there are two unusual national
leaderships...

"On the one hand, there is the Morales administration
in Bolivia, which, regardless of its socio-economic
origin, corresponds to the ethnical claim of a subdued
community... On the other hand, there is the Bachelet
administration in Chile, which strictly continues the
three previous center-to-left democratic governments
and, still, is the first government with an equal
number of men and women in the Executive Branch, which
is also led by a woman.

"And it is their unusual nature which makes it hard to
judge the performance of these governments... In the
long run, these governments could fail... However,
their mere existence is a big success because it
unleashed an important cultural change.

"... We all know that we are witnessing an important
change. The fact that Chile accepts an agenda
including the topic of Bolivian maritime sovereignty
and that Bolivia respects the rhythm required by this
big change in Chile, and that this is done
contradicting the public opinion of each of the
countries shows that perhaps what was not achieved by
years of diplomacy and conflict between traditional
leaders can perhaps be achieved by both a female and
indigenous government. Perhaps all this will put an
end to one of the main obstacles to unity in our
region."

- "What to do with Chavez"



Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece
by Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, professor of International
Relations at Universidad de San Andres, who writes
(06/10) "The US is more isolated than Venezuela. It is
not getting support to engage in diplomacy of coercion
against Venezuela.

"Meanwhile, Chavez is reinforcing his regional
intervention through active energetic diplomacy. This
leads to an exasperating corollary - while Chavez is
attempting to obtain more international autonomy...,
the Bush administration is acting out of despair and
is increasingly aggressive...

"... Some basic harmony should be reached between
Washington and Caracas. The US should not undermine
Venezuela's instability and Venezuela should not
promote international alliances that unleash excessive
anxiety in the US. Caracas should also contain its
practice of radical change within its own borders and
commit itself to stop pressuring the rest of the
region to accept its ideology and policies."

- "The IMF criticizes the (Argentine) Government's
anti-inflation policy"

Alejandro Rebossio, economic columnist of daily-of-
record "La Nacion's" "Economic and Business"
supplement, writes (06/10) "The IMF is no longer a
creditor of Argentina and, therefore, its
recommendations have stopped being conditions for
Argentine finance programs, as they used to be in the
past. However, the IMF continues to form opinions
about the country, as it does with other member
nations. Yesterday, it criticized the Government's
strategy to fight inflation and it asked the
Government to cool down the economy with more
restrictive fiscal and monetary policies.

"... In a communiqu, the IMF highlighted that while
'the Government's post-crisis policy played an
important role in the positive results obtained during
recent years,' 'inflation and the policies implemented
to restrict it have created mounting tensions, which
the Government will have to solve.'"

- "More anti-genocide action is required"

Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Anthony
Lake, political analyst, University of Georgetown, and
Francis Fukuyama, political analyst from the
University Johns Hopkins, who write (06/12) "In spite
of the official rhetoric and the increasing public
support directed towards international action to put
an end to the first genocide of the 21st century,
Darfur has been an ignored tragedy for three years.

"... The Bush administration should not limit itself
to just urging the UN to plan a peace force, but it
should also give the Sudan government a short period
of time to accept such a force... Sudan said it would
do it once a peace deal was signed, but its latest
statements were misleading.

"The US and other countries attending the UN World
Summit last September agreed that the international
community should protect innocent civilians whenever a
government is unwilling to do it."

- "Impetus to the war in the Middle East"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (06/12) "The
dim peace expectations that could exist in the Middle
East were, at least, seriously weakened by the Israeli
attack against civilians in a Gaza beach...

"... The Israeli administration formally apologized
for the attack, but this will not neutralize the
desire for retaliation. In fact, Hamas launched
several missiles against Israel right away.

"This means that pro-war sectors on both sides
continue defeating the negotiation wings. This trend
has resulted in a lack of safety, and death for the
two countries, with the Palestinians obviously


suffering the most."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ