ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER INTERVIEWS LIKELY WARM-UP FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 001176

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER INTERVIEWS LIKELY WARM-UP FOR
MAY 25 SPEECH

REF: BUENOS AIRES 01090

Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kirchner recently gave extensive
newspaper interviews that likely presage his speech at the
huge rally planned in the central square of Buenos Aires on
May 25 to commemorate Revolution Day and the third
anniversary of Kirchner assuming the presidency. Kirchner's
interview comments focused on his administration's
accomplishments, avoided talk on reelection, appealed to
minority party leaders to join his movement, and struck a
critical tone on many international issues. Kirchner called
for a "concertacion" alliance -- along the lines of Chile,
but without criticism of Kirchner's policies -- that would
incorporate other political elements. President Kirchner
extolled regional unity, even while maintaining Argentina's
position against Uruguay in the paper mill crisis. Kirchner
was critical of U.S. trade policy and lack of focus on the
region. President Kirchner said that the U.S. had not
pressured him "to limit the influence of Chavez in the
region," although he acknowledged that U.S. officials had
expressed their concern about Chavez to him. END SUMMARY.



2. (SBU) On May 21, the circulation-leading daily Clarin and
the GOA-aligned Pagina 12 published extensive interviews with
President Nestor Kirchner that likely foreshadow Kirchner's
speech at the upcoming massive rally planned in the central
square of Buenos Aires to celebrate Revolution Day and
Kirchner's third anniversary of assuming power. (Note: The
daily of record, La Nacion, also requested an interview with
President Kirchner, but was denied. Kirchner and his leading
ministers have often criticized La Nacion in the past year
for being too critical of Kirchner and GOA policy. End
Note.) GOA organizers are expecting a crowd of nearly
200,000 to fill the central Plaza de Mayo on May 25 as part
of a national celebration that will include a speech from
President Kirchner as its highlight.


3. (SBU) In the interviews Kirchner highlighted his
administration's accomplishments, avoided talk on reelection,
appealed to minority party leaders to join his movement, and
struck a critical tone on many international issues.
Kirchner underscored a long list of accomplishments during
his administration -- the high GDP growth rates over the past
three years, the 30 percentage point reduction in poverty,
the sizable reduction in unemployment, the successful
renegotiation of private sector debt, the payoff of the IMF
debt and the large budget surplus he has been able to
maintain. Kirchner defended his unorthodox economic
policies, such as price controls and the export ban on beef.
Kirchner argued that such methods have been successful in
keeping inflation manageable and called for more aggressive
implementation of the price controls.


4. (SBU) Kirchner used the opportunity to deny many rumors
regarding major announcements for the May 25th event.
Kirchner denied that he would announce his reelection,
nationalize the privatized oil company Repsol-YPF, or
announce his main candidates for the 2007 elections. He even
quipped that his wife, Senator Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner, would make an excellent President, who could be
counted on to outpoll him. (Comment: Many POL contacts have
said that Kirchner will likely take the opportunity to make
some minor to medium policy announcements, such as raising
the minimum wage, reforming the national education law, or
doing something with the retirement system. The possibility
always exists that Kirchner will make a surprise big
announcement, but for now, Kirchner is trying to lower
expectations that this will happen. End Comment.)


5. (C) Kirchner called for a "concertacion" alliance, along
the lines of Chile, that would incorporate other political
elements, especially the largest opposition party, the
Radical Civic Union (UCR). Kirchner noted that many former
and current members of the UCR, Frepaso, former opposition
Peronists and the Socialiist Party are already working with

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his Victory Front (FPV). (Comment: It is clear from
President Kirchner's comments during the interview in support
of the recent removal of Diputada Maria del Carmen Alarcon
from the presidency of the Lower House Agriculture Committee
due to her opposition of the GOA's beef export ban (See
Reftel) that Kirchner does not envision this alliance as one
that incorporates policy viewpoints that differ from his own.
End Comment.) Former President Raul Alfonsin is reportedly
scheduled to attend the May 25 rally with Kirchner and other
UCR leaders are also reportedly considering joining Kirchner
at the event.


6. (SBU) President Kirchner extolled regional unity, even
while maintaining Argentina's position against Uruguay in the
paper mill crisis. Kirchner predicted that Mercosur would be
strengthened in the long run. Kirchner stood by Argentina's
case before the Hague that the paper mill installation
violated the Rio Uruguay Pact between the two nations. He
said he "completely shared the position of the Argentine
environmentalists" with regards to the paper mill crisis. At
the same time, however, Kirchner said that the door was still
open to further discussions with Uruguay and he refused to
directly criticize Uruguayan President Tabare Vasquez when
questioned by the interviewers.


7. (C) Kirchner praised Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as
a "integrationist" and as someone who has done many "good
gestures" for Argentina in the investment and energy areas,
although he conceded that he had many obvious disagreements
with the Venezuelan leader. Kirchner said he thought Chavez
was working hard for the region's integration. (Comment:
Kirchner's favorable comments on Chavez have to be seen in
light of the fact that the GOV has been major purchaser of
Argentine bonds and continually holds out the promise of
helping Argentina to resolve its serious long-term energy
shortages. End Comment.)


8. (C) In response to a question from leftist "Pagina 12,"
Kirchner was critical of U.S. trade policy and lack of focus
on the region. Kirchner complained that U.S. free trade
pacts were "unacceptable" in their current form -- alluding
to the Mercosur position that the FTAA is not workable unless
the issue of U.S. agricultural subsidies is addressed.
Kirchner held out the example of the European Union where a
percentage of the regional GDP goes to an infrastructure
development fund as an example of how the U.S. should be
thinking in terms of a free trade agreement. Kirchner said
that the U.S. "does not remember the region" and that this
make regional integration much more difficult. Kirchner did
add, however, that a more "integrated" U.S. would be a major
benefit to the region. (Comment: Besides restating the
Mercosur trade position, Kirchner's critical comments about
the U.S. are a reflection of polls that show that Argentines
have the most negative view of the United States of all
democracies in the hemisphere. End Comment.)


9. (C) President Kirchner said that the U.S. and Brazil had
not pressured him "to limit the influence of Chavez in the
region," although he acknowledged that U.S. officials had
expressed their concern about Chavez to him. (Comment: U.S.
officials, from President Bush to the Ambassador and leading
Embassy officials have all repeatedly stated our concerns to
President Kirchner and his top advisors about Chavez and his
policies at home and in the region. While we have not
enlisted the GOA's support in "limiting the influence of
Chavez" per se, we have repeatedly sought the GOA's help in
moderating Chavez and his policies in Venezuela and the
region. President Bush and the Ambassador's emphasis on
Venezuela early in Kirchner's presidency prompted Kirchner to
meet with the Venezuelan opposition twice and to press Chavez
to hold a free and fair recall referendum. Venezuela is an
issue we continue to raise at every opportunity with GOA
officials. End Comment.)

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Comment
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10. (C) President Kirchner's May 21 press interviews can be
seen as a dry run for many of the themes he will likely cover
in his May 25 Plaza de Mayo speech. Kirchner will emphasize
the many successes of his presidency, particularly in the
economy. Although Kirchner seems likely to avoid mentioning
his reelection in his speech, many are already calling May 25
the beginning of the 2007 election campaign. Kirchner will
seek to ensure that non-Peronists are included in the event
in order to further Kirchner's goal of drawing in opposition
party elements into his FPV movement. In this vein, Kirchner
said he will not speak from the balcony of the Casa Rosada,
thereby avoiding the image of Juan and Evita Peron, who often
spoke to the masses from the Casa Rosada balcony. Kirchner
will also likely take a nationalistic tack on international
issues, such as the Uruguay paper mill crisis.


GUTIERREZ