MEDIA REACTION US-URUGUAYAN FTA THE PRE-

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001038

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION US-URUGUAYAN FTA THE PRE-
EMPTIVE WAR CONCEPT US MILITARY AND CIVILIANS LATIN
AMERICAN GAS SUPPLY 05/05/06


1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Today's local papers lead with the meeting held
between US President George W. Bush and Uruguayan
President Tabare Vazquez; Argentine and Brazilian
presidents' promise to respect "potentially explosive"
Bolivia's nationalization of its natural gas sector;
the Argentine announcement it lodged a claim against
Uruguay before the International Court of Justice in
The Hague protesting at the construction of two paper
pulp mills; and Kadima leader Ehud Olmert taking
office as Israel's PM with his new coalition
government. Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an
editorial criticizing Bolivian President Morales'
decision to nationalize hydrocarbons.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "Tabare meets with Bush, but the US-Uruguayan FTA is
delayed"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading
"Clarin," writes (05/05) "Uruguayan President Tabare
Vazquez met yesterday with George W. Bush but there
was no announcement of a bilateral FTA. Instead, the
possibility of signing it in October in Montevideo was
mentioned.

"During the meeting..., Tabare referred to (Uruguay's)
conflict with Argentina over the pulp mills. Bush
listened to his arguments but remained absolutely
neutral.

"The two presidents agreed to deepen the trade
relationship between both countries and negotiate
market access.

"... After his meeting with Bush, Tabare said 'We do
not renounce Mercosur, but we want a greater and
better Mercosur.' However, he added that 'In the
framework of Mercosur, Uruguay will defend its right
to reach bilateral trade deals with other countries
and regions,' and that both Brazil and Argentina
should understand that 'As it is, Mercosur is useless
for small countries.'"

- "Bush and Vazquez agree on an increase in bilateral
trade"

Nelson Fernandez, on special assignment in Washington
for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (05/05)
"Yesterday, Uruguay managed that the US open a door to
a bilateral trade negotiation, the content of which
will be defined in committees that will start working
in the following days and that could well end up in an
FTA...

"The end of negotiations is not sure yet. Uruguay
would be satisfied with an FTA enabling to lower
barriers on the sale of Uruguayan meat, dairy
products, textiles, software and alternative energy.
However, the purpose of (Uruguayan) Economy Minister
Danilo Astori's new trade strategy is to reach an FTA
with the US as a previous step to a series of similar
deals to be reached with Arab and Asian countries."

- "Russell, Churchill and pre-emptive war"

Carlos Escude, head of the International Studies
Center, CEMA University, writes (05/05) "The prospect
that a theocratic and fundamentalist regime...
purchasing nuclear armament refers us to the debates
that took place between 1945 and 1949, when Americans
had the nuclear monopoly. While that monopoly no
longer exists, there prevails an oligopoly made up by
the five permanent members of the UN Security Council,
plus three nuclear countries, which (in contrast to
Iran) never signed the Non Proliferation Treaty.

"By that time (1945-49),the people were more aware
than today about the possibility of an end-of-the-
world war if WMD proliferated, and some prominent men
promoted the idea of a pre-emptive war 'by using
nuclear monopoly in order to maintain nuclear
monopoly.'"


- "Chavez has the key to the US"

Sergio Serrichio, economic and political columnist of
business-financial "El Cronista," comments (05/05) "It
is easy for Hugo Chavez to criticize those seeking
greater trade access to the US, because Venezuela
already has it. For this, he did not need to negotiate
anything with Washington... Even under Chavez, 70% of
Venezuelan oil exports go to the US...

"... For any country, an FTA with the US is not a
panacea and it certainly has its costs - namely,
strict trading costs plus the paraphernalia of
homologation rules and legislative amendments that
Washington seeks to impose on its potential partners.

"It is easier to attempt to improve market access
without reaching an FTA, something of which Uruguay
abused perhaps due to its historic Mercosur partners'
rebuff."

- "US military and civilians"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by
Albino Gomez, diplomat, writer and journalist, who
writes (05/05) "For the first time since the beginning
of the war in Iraq, a group of retired US military
decided to break a strong tradition of silence and
asked for the resignation of US Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld...

"... The subordination of the military power to
civilian authorities has never been a problem in the
US and this is the case still today in spite of the
criticism from some retired generals and their request
for the US Defense Secretary's resignation...

"... However, the possibility of another serious
conflict in the area, that with Iran (which could be
much more dangerous than the one with Iraq) could
spark a dramatic change not only in the US but all
over the world."


3. EDITORIALS

- "Bolivia on the wrong road"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (05/05) "The
nationalization of hydrocarbons decided by Bolivian
President Evo Morales has to be understood as a
sovereign measure that was taken by a legitimate
government but also as an extreme step with a deep
ideological burden, which represents a return to
statism and a retreat vis--vis the prevailing
international economic development and integration
model.

"... Contrary to what occurred with previous
nationalizations in Bolivia, when natural resources
were in the hands of US companies, this time, the most
affected companies in Bolivia are from Brazil and
Spain.

"... Bolivia needs to find a balanced road to put an
end to its historic and unfair social inequity, and
the best way to do it should be to welcome investment
that may contribute to its development."

- "Power to the people"

An editorial in liberal, English-language "Buenos
Aires Herald" reads (05/05) "This newspaper has often
criticized Aldo Ferrer's 'live off our own' philosophy
of economic nationalism but this approach may well
turn out to be a necessity amid the current shambles
of regional policy. It is still too early to comment
on the results of the latest regional initiatives...
but it is not too early to say that imagining these
events will magically solve all problems is an
illusion and that this country should start preparing
now to go it alone within the region, especially on
the energy front.

"The need to resolve energy bottlenecks (compounded by
the rising price of nationalized Bolivian gas) is all
the more acute since this government has fallen so


much in love with runaway growth that it is not doing
anything towards a slowdown - the lowest minimum
growth forecasts for 2006... now stand at seven or
eight percent.

"... More realistic pricing and restriction of demand
are important first steps but the essence of any
energy distribution policy is having energy to
distribute. Argentina's oil and gas production has
been declining steadily over the past three years
while Brazil... has vowed not to invest a penny more,
resorting to international courts against Bolivia just
like Argentina against Uruguay. Any future energy
policy thus needs not only to regulate demand but also
to offer far more definite proposals as to how to
improve supply."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ