Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST753
2006-04-11 15:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF MDF'S UNEXPECTED

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0021
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0753/01 1011509
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111509Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8989
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000753 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF MDF'S UNEXPECTED
FIRST-ROUND ELECTORAL SUCCESS (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644

B. BUDAPEST 722

C. BUDAPEST 733

-------
Summary
-------

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000753

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF MDF'S UNEXPECTED
FIRST-ROUND ELECTORAL SUCCESS (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644

B. BUDAPEST 722

C. BUDAPEST 733

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) Junior opposition party MDF's capture of 5.04 percent
of the county list vote in the April 9 first round of the
election, surprised pundits, pollsters and even MDF insiders.
With one week remaining before Hungary's elections, three
public opinion research companies here predicted that MDF
would not reach the 5 percent mark required to enter
Parliament. Observers suggested that MDF may have been the
last-minute beneficiary of the April 6 four-way debate and a
right-wing protest vote against FIDESZ. Although MDF has
finished third in forty-seven of the remaining 110 individual
districts and is in a position to help or hurt FIDESZ in the
second round, MDF President Ibolya David has categorically
ruled out any possibility of a coalition or coordination with
FIDESZ.

--------------
The Reason Why
--------------


2. (SBU) MDF's popularity ratings increased noticeably in
the final week of the campaign. (Note: Prior to the April 5
and 6 inter-party debates all major Hungarian polls showed
MDF hovering between 2 and 4 percent.) Observers have
suggested various reasons for the party's eleventh-hour
recovery:

-- MDF President Ibolya David's strong showing in the
four-party debate on April 6. Observers contend that many
Hungarians of all political stripes viewed David's
performance favorably. The public opinion research company
Szonda Ipsos showed that MDF went from 3.1 percent before the
debate to 4 percent immediately afterward. Other pollsters
agreed. Gallup claimed that if the elections had occurred
one week earlier, MDF would not have won the five percent
necessary to be represented in Parliament. Regardless,
pollsters said that the difference between their predictions
and the final percentage was a matter of 2500 votes, which is
well within the margin of error in a voting pool of 8.1
million;

--David's personal popularity. (Note: David consistently
polls as the most popular politician in Hungary, despite the
fact that she finished a dismal third in the first round

contest in her own district and will likely be forced to
enter Parliament via MDF's party list.);

--A last minute spending and campaign blitz. MDF leaders
told poloffs that because of their lack of financial
resources, the party would only start intensive advertising
on the eve of the elections. In recent weeks the country has
been inundated with posters that have pictures of pacifiers,
and Christmas trees, with the message that Hungarian voters
are not children to be bought with extravagant promises;

--FIDESZ's overt desire to destroy or absorb MDF likely
motivated conservative voters to turn out in larger numbers
in order to preserve a bona-fide conservative party;

-- Favorable state-run media coverage. (Note: In an on-air
interview after the elections, David thanked the GOH
administered MTV for its coverage, causing speculation that
the government-run media had spotlighted MDF in order to
undercut FIDESZ. There have also been rumors that MSZP
contributed support to MDF in attempts to accomplish this as
well.);


--MDF's ability to stay on message. David has consistently
hammered away at the issue of corruption, fiscal prudence and
on MDF as the "adult choice" or alternative for right-wing
voters disillusioned with the FIDESZ's populism and negative
campaign.

--------------
MDF's Support
--------------


3. (SBU) MDF seems to have benefited from its identification
as the sole conservative party. On the county lists, MDF's
support ranged from 3.83 percent in Borsod-Abauj-Zemplen
County to 5.96 percent in Tolna County. Generally, MDF did

well in traditionally conservative counties, largely in
western Hungary. FIDESZ dominated these counties, but the
turnout for MDF indicates that many of the local
conservatives did not view FIDESZ as the best "right wing"
party. FIDESZ also won the most county votes in eight of the
eleven counties where MDF exceeded its national average of
5.04 percent, further lending credence to the possibility
that the MDF surge was due to conservatives' desire to send a
message to FIDESZ, and/or vote for a "true" right-of-center
party.


4. (SBU) MDF also performed well in two regions where FIDESZ
did not: Budapest (which gave MDF approximately 54 thousand
votes, almost one-fifth of its total) and Baranya County
(home to the city of Pecs). Those results seem to support
the idea that much of MDF's strength comes from urban
conservatives. Orban himself attributed part of FIDESZ's poor
showing to the fact that city voter's turned out in greater
numbers than rural voters. It so, that would have boosted
MDF.

--------------
Written in Stone
--------------


5. (U) To have any chance of winning the election, FIDESZ
must win 75 of the remaining 110 individual mandates in round
two. In 34 of these districts, if added to already existing
FIDESZ votes, MDF or MDF/MIEP-Jobbik votes could
theoretically give FIDESZ enough support to win. Orban is
aware of this, and had appealed for MDF cooperation in
"ousting the communist regime and governing the country." To
date, his appeals have fallen on deaf ears. David told
reporters April 10 that MDF would not withdraw candidates in
deference to FIDESZ, and that her party would not "cheat
voters" who did not vote for FIDESZ or MSZP. At MDF
headquarters, she said, the party had erected a stone wall in
which the "message was carved" that they would not help Orban
or Prime Minister Gyurscany. In response to a FIDESZ request
for cooperation, MDF's board voted April 10 for no candidate
withdrawals. (Backtracking on such public commitments would
be very difficult at this juncture MDF.) In addition, the
above-mentioned FIDESZ attempts to crush MDF have further
dampened any desire of MDF supporters to work with FIDESZ. A
Median poll shows that over half of MDF voters would not vote
for FIDESZ, even if FIDESZ and MSZP were the only two choices
on the ballot.


6. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
WALKER