Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST748
2006-04-11 14:23:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SZDSZ BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI ECON PINR HU 
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VZCZCXRO9507
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHUP #0748/01 1011423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111423Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8985
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000748 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI ECON PINR HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SZDSZ BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN
ROUND ONE (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

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Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000748

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI ECON PINR HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SZDSZ BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN
ROUND ONE (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

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Summary
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1. (SBU) On April 9, the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats
(SZDSZ) made a strong showing in the first round of Hungary's
national elections, exceeding both current expectations and
its 2002 performance. As a result, it appears poised to
remain in government alongside its current partner, the
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). Wasting no time, the SZDSZ
and MSZP parties pledged to cooperate in 58 individual
constituencies by strategic withdrawals of their respective
candidates in each other's favor. If the strategy pays off,
much horse trading remains to be done for key cabinet spots
and in this fall's local elections following the second-round
vote on April 23. Over the next two weeks, however, the two
parties must coax enough supporters back to the polls to
ensure victory.

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An Impressive Feat
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2. (SBU) Against many analysts' predictions that the SZDSZ
might fall out of Parliament, the party bettered its 2002
performance by more than a percentage point, finishing with
6.5 percent of the vote. That strong performance may be
attributed to a successful mobilization campaign, a high
turnout, and opposition FIDESZ's tactical errors. Already
stronger in Budapest than in rural districts, SZDSZ saw its
support jump from 9.5 percent to 12.3 in the capital.
Analysts also credit MSZP "cross-over" votes for SZDSZ in
round one's party-list voting. Though not officially
endorsed by party leadership, MSZP party loyalists have long
acknowledged in private that 1) the MSZP was not likely to
win an outright majority, and 2) the SZDSZ would need help
from MSZP voters to scale the five-percent hurdle to entering
Parliament and continue in the current coalition. SZDSZ's
achievement is also noteworthy in that it expanded its base
despite its incumbent position. (Note: In every election
since 1990, Hungarian voters have overturned the incumbent
government.)

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MSZP and SZDSZ: Fast Friends
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3. (SBU) Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany (MSZP) and SZDSZ
President Gabor Kuncze wasted no time forging an agreement to
support each other's second-round races in 58 key contests,
announcing the deal at a joint rally just one day after the
conclusion of round one. Kuncze agreed to withdraw SZDSZ
candidates in 55 races, throwing the party's support to MSZP
in all but three of the races where the SZDSZ candidate
finished in third place or better. (Note: The Socialist
candidate will withdraw in three other races, including
Kuncze's own district, which he has won with MSZP support in
every election since 1990. If he wins on April 23, Kuncze
will become the only MP to serve continuously since the
democratic transition.) In public statements on April 10,
senior SZDSZ party member Ivan Peto clarified that SZDSZ
cooperation is contingent on firm promises to withdraw MSZP
candidates from many mayoral races in the fall and,
presumably, to seat SZDSZ members in various ministries.
Both parties agree that consolidating ministries must be a
priority in the new term, and the Free Democrats are no doubt
jockeying for key cabinet posts to advance their health care,
economic and education campaign goals under a new system.

--------------
Clever Campaign Lifts Free Dems
--------------


4. (SBU) The SZDSZ ran a clever campaign that played to
their strengths. Knowing that they were never likely to draw
mass support, the Free Democrats opted for pithy, low-cost,
mass-media blitzes, bolstered by Internet-based initiatives
designed to show liberal principles as the way of the future.
At a recent campaign stop, Kuncze remarked to Emboffs that
the plan to differentiate themselves from the MSZP in the
early stages, and "unite" just prior to the election, appears
to have paid off. (Comment: One mistake, however, came in
the early "Let My Kingdom Come" posters, which led to a
backlash, especially from far-right voters and the Church.)
However, the "Pisti Kovacs" ad series proved, far and away,
to be the SZDSZ's best mobilizing tool. That strategy
presented the party's "youngest member," five-year-old Kovacs

BUDAPEST 00000748 002 OF 002


Pisti, as the future of Hungary. Young Pisti appeared in
Internet video files, on billboards and in flyers across the
county. Voters were encouraged to "become Kovacs Pisti's
friend" by providing contact information at the SZDSZ
website. Despite limited finances, SZDSZ's coordinated media
efforts created a positive, residual message that saturated
Hungary for ninety days prior to the election.

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Comment: Will SZDSZ's Strategy Pay Off?
--------------


5. (SBU) With the April 23 second round looming on the
horizon, the SZDSZ must now mobilize its voters to return to
the polls and support the MSZP-SZDSZ coalition. Though
FIDESZ faces an uphill battle to win 75 of 110 open mandates
against a stacked field of MSZP, SZDSZ and MDF supporters,
all publicly denouncing Orban and the conservatives, low
voter turnout by coalition supporters in the second round
could allow Orban to regain lost ground. Gyurcsany and
Kuncze will continue to appear together publicly to rally
support for the coalition's candidates in key races. At
first glance, SZDSZ appears to have given much away by
withdrawing from so many races. However, if the coalition is
successful, the real bargaining will begin after the second
round. SZDSZ will no doubt demand a few high-profile
ministry positions, as well as significant concessions in
mayoral races, in exchange for their support. For now, the
immediate focus is on defeating Orban and FIDESZ, which is
probable, but not guaranteed at this point.


6. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov/gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
WALKER