Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST733
2006-04-10 16:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: PARSING ROUND ONE'S RESULTS

Tags:  KDEM PGOV HU 
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VZCZCXRO8230
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHUP #0733/01 1001631
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101631Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8974
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BUDAPEST 000733 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: PARSING ROUND ONE'S RESULTS
(C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

-------
Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BUDAPEST 000733

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: PARSING ROUND ONE'S RESULTS
(C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Only the April 23 second round of Hungary's
elections will establish who may form the country's next
government, but the wind is with the governing coalition.
That alone is a first for Hungary's post-1990 elections, but
there were some other surprises: an unexpectedly robust
turnout, and the return to Parliament of both smaller
parties. Junior governing coalition partner SZDSZ's success
may prove decisive for the continuation of the current
coalition. Junior opposition party MDF's survival, however,
leaves Orban with the most reluctant of potential partners.
The chief opposition party FIDESZ turned in a strong showing
but appears to have stretched its umbrella too thin. Post
will report on round two's results and analyze their
significance for U.S. policy septels.

--------------
Tight Race Spurs Robust Turnout
--------------


2. (SBU) Many observers, including party workers, predicted a
turnout for this year's race to come in about 10 points lower
than 2002's 70.53 percent in the first round. However, when
the polls closed at 7 p.m. Sunday night, 67.83 percent of
Hungary's 8.1 million voters had cast ballots nationwide. In
Budapest, the figure was even higher, at 74.29 percent.
General elections in Hungary have witnessed relatively high
rates of voter participation in recent years. In 1994, 68.90
percent participated in the first round; in 1998, the figure
was 56.26 percent. (Note: Hungary's voter participation
rate is high by regional standards. In general elections
last fall, only about 40 percent of Poles went to the polls
to cast their ballots. In presidential elections in Slovakia
two years ago, the rate was 43 percent, and turnout was 58
percent in elections in the Czech Republic in 2002.)


3. (SBU) Another tight race, in addition to the beautiful
spring weather, may have contributed to this year's high
voter turnout. Another factor: Hungarians for the first
time are able to cast their ballots in polling stations away
from their home districts (if they signed up to do so ahead
of time),and even those who were out in the provinces on
vacation or in their vacation homes that day could and did
vote. This year, for the first time, it was also possible to

vote at Hungarian embassies abroad. In recent weeks and
months, all four parliamentary parties have been urging their
supporters to go and vote. In particular, FIDESZ had waged a
significant "get out the vote" drive, with volunteers calling
upon sympathizers three times each in the final days of the
campaign, using lists created over at least two years of
grass-roots campaigning.

--------------
Observing the Vote
--------------


4. (U) Wearing observer badges issued by the National
Election Commission, eight teams of Embassy personnel visited
more than one hundred polling stations in all regions of
Hungary on April 9. Workers at several polling stations told
Emboffs that turnout was higher in the morning than at the
same time of day four years ago. Along the Danube,
polling-station officials told Embassy observers that recent
flooding had not impacted turnout "at all." No polling
station reporting long lines or wait times. All observers
reported that election officials were "friendly and
forthcoming." Most polling stations were staffed with six to
twelve paid election officials and volunteer workers.
Volunteers were from the four parliamentary parties, and
appeared to work well together.

--------------
Four on the Floor
--------------


5. (SBU) With 100 percent of the vote counted, all four of
the parties currently in Parliament were able to cross the
five-percent threshold for entering the legislature.
Nationwide, the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) garnered
43.21 percent of the county party-list vote, followed by the
joint ticket of the Alliance of Young Democrats and the
Christian Democratic People's Party (FIDESZ-KNDP) at 42.03
percent, the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) at 6.5
percent and the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) at 5.04

BUDAPEST 00000733 002 OF 004


percent. (Note: In 2004, the results were comparable: the
combined FIDESZ-MDF ticket received 41.07 percent, MSZP 42.05
percent and SZDSZ 5.57 percent.)

-------------- --------------
MSZP-SZDSZ Leads, FIDESZ Hopes for Sleeper Victory
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Hungary's electoral system assigns mandates as
individual constituencies, party-list seats and national-list
seats: In round one, only those individual-constituency
races where one candidate won an outright majority were
decisive. Sixty-six of the 176 individual-constituency races
were decided at the first go, with MSZP winning 33 such
seats, joint MSZP-SZDSZ candidates winning in five, and
FIDESZ winning 29 seats. Neither SZDSZ nor MDF won a clear
first-round majority in any individual race. (Note: In
2002, by comparison, only 45 individual constituencies were
decided in the first round.) When county party-list seats
are added in, the totals reach 105 seats for MSZP, four for
the joint MSZP-SZDSZ ticket, and four for SZDSZ alone (thus
113 for the governing coalition); plus 97 for FIDESZ and two
for MDF, all out of a total of 386 mandates.

(SBU) As a result, only the second round on April 23 will
decide who forms Hungary's next government. Political
scientist Zoltn Lakner commented on Hungarian State
Television that, in order to win, FIDESZ needs some 65 of the
110 individual mandates to be decided in round two, and
cannot win them without MDF support. According to FIDESZ
party president Orban, the party may need as many as 75 of
the 110 undecided mandates. (Comment: That will indeed be a
tall order in those districts where FIDESZ led in the first
round but failed to attain a majority. In a number of those
districts, MDF also qualified for the second round by proving
itself one of the top three vote getters. FIDESZ and MDF
have little more than burnt bridges to link them at this
point, however.)

--------------
FIDESZ: What Went Wrong?
--------------


7. (SBU) Despite Orban's combative demeanor as election night
came to a close ("we'll see who laughs last"),the FIDESZ
leadership must be disappointed with its performance. The
April 9 contest left it slightly behind (1.1 percent) the
governing MSZP in the party-list category and 7.7 percent
behind when junior governing coalition party SZDSZ's 6.5
percent is added to the MSZP's party-list total. It trails
in individual-mandate tallies as well. What went wrong for
FIDESZ? Although the results of the April 9 contest will
have to be analyzed carefully, hindsight suggests a number of
tactical and strategic errors:

-- FIDESZ's efforts to court a new electorate may have come
at the expense of its core voters, some of whom may have been
put off by its embrace of statism and populism;

-- anecdotal evidence suggests some of the electorate may
have rejected FIDESZ's contention that they were indeed
"worse off" now than four years ago. FIDESZ's shift to a
more positive message in the last three weeks of the campaign
cycle can be read as a tacit admission that its more negative
message was wide of the mark;

-- the party's effort to effect a hostile takeover of junior
opposition party MDF failed. The President of the public
opinion research firm Tarki, Istvan Toth, told Embassy April
10 that FIDESZ had "stretched its umbrella too thin." In
particular, he thought FIDESZ's courting of Hungary's
proletariat had cost it the votes of "urban, well-educated,
rightist" voters, many of whom had made an eleventh-hour
decision to vote for MDF;

-- it is possible that FIDESZ's declared state of perpetual
war with the Socialist Party has worn thin with an electorate
anxious for the a less adversarial political climate.

--------------
Regional Variations
--------------


8. (SBU) (Note: The distribution of mandates from the
national lists of the four parties will only be calculated
after the second round of voting.) Of Hungary's twenty
counties (including Budapest),MSZP took the most votes in 11
and FIDESZ-KNDP in 9. Budapest, with its 28 county-list
mandates up for grabs, proved decisive for the two smaller

BUDAPEST 00000733 003 OF 004


parties. SZDSZ won a full 12.28 percent of the vote in the
capital, good for 3 of the party's 4 mandates, and MDF 5.3
percent, which gave it one of its two mandates. The
party-list races in roughly one-third of the counties were
extremely close, with the margin of victory between the two
main parties narrowing to a mere 2 to 4 percentage points.
Interestingly, the two westernmost counties (Vas and Zala)
gave FIDESZ the most solid support, while Borsod County, in
the far northeast, turned out in strength for MSZP. (In Vas,
FIDESZ polled 50.8 percent to the MSZP's 35.65. In Zala,
49.67 to 37.26. In Borsod, it was MSZP that won 50.94
percent to FIDESZ's 37.26.)

--------------
SZDSZ: Stronger Hand
in Budapest
--------------


9. (SBU) SZDSZ performed rather better than most pollsters
had anticipated. The party's strenuous efforts to mobilize
its voters appears to have paid off, particularly in
Budapest, where SZDSZ picked up 20,000 more votes than in

2002. Budapest accounts for nearly half of the 351,000 votes
that SZDSZ received nationwide. SZDSZ may have FIDESZ to
thank at least in part for its relatively strong showing, as
certain elements of the main opposition party's campaign
--such as the attack on single people by FIDESZ "deputy prime
minister-designate" Istvan Mikola-- may have brought some
voters to the ballot box who otherwise might have stayed home.

--------------
MDF's Surprise Victory
--------------


10. (SBU) To the surprise of all polling companies and
observers here, MDF safely crossed the critical five-percent
margin for entering Parliament. At the Parliament Cafe,
where the party had set up its election-night headquarters,
hope mounted as the returns trickled in and MDF's proportion
of the vote inched upward. The room burst into cheers as the
party nudged over the critical threshold by the slim margin
of 0.05 percent, representing a scant 1,400 votes nationwide.
For months, polls had consistently placed support for MDF
between three and four percent. The party's unexpectedly
strong performance may be attributed to a well-run campaign,
state-media coverage (which David gave thanks for while on
the air),David's own highly-popular persona, and an
anti-Orban protest vote on the right. (Comment: As David
has noted, the key result of MDF's continuing presence in
Parliament is that Hungary's right wing will not be
represented solely by FIDESZ. In David's final
election-night statement she said unequivocally, again, that
MDF would not support Orban's return to power -- thus
appearing to diminish FIDESZ's chances of winning a majority
of the seats up for grabs in the second round, where the
unified left is poised to face a divided right wing. Cynics
on the right will charge that pro-government state media
consciously gave MDF air time in order to divide the right;
others may shrug that equal time is an established principle.)

--------------
High-Profile Individual Races
--------------


11. (SBU) There were no particular surprises for many of the
key figures in national politics who ran in individual
districts. MSZP party president Istvan Hiller shot into
first place in Budapest's 29th electoral district, with
20-plus percent votes more than his FIDESZ rival. Parliament
Speaker Katalin Szili (MSZP) recaptured a safe seat in the
southern Transdanubian town of Pecs. Ildiko Lendvai, MSZP's
faction head in Parliament, has won a plurality of votes in
her district, but she will need to wait for the second round
to find out whether she can best FIDESZ's candidate. Janos
Koka, the SZDSZ Minister of Economy and Trade, is in second
place in his affluent Budapest district, trailing FIDESZ
District Mayor Gabor Tamas Nagy by four percent.
Surprisingly, MDF party president Ibolya David is in third
place in her home constituency, a small town in western
Hungary. David, with just 12 percent of the vote, does not
stand a real chance against her FIDESZ opponent, but will
enter Parliament regardless on the MDF national list.
Prominent SZDSZer Matyas Eorsi will also have to rely on his
party's list, as he is at third place in his Budapest
district, with only 9 percent of the vote. SZDSZ party
president Gabor Kuncze's situation is similar: in his Pest
county town, he is in third place, with 19 percent of
first-round votes. MSZP senior figure Imre Szekeres, on the
other hand, is in a rather secure first place in his

BUDAPEST 00000733 004 OF 004


district, with 46 percent of ballots cast in his favor.

--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Although FIDESZ clearly has its work cut out for
it, MSZP cannot afford to relax. Up for grabs are the
remaining individual mandate seats. It appears that MSZP has
the lead in 57 of those races, but much can change between
now and April 23. A key figure in the outcome may be the
MDF's President Ibolya David. Although she appears to have
decisively rejected a coalition with FIDESZ, she will be
courted relentlessly by Viktor Orban, and there will be
pressure from some in her party. The outcome at this
juncture is difficult to predict, as the last elections
showed: in 2002, FIDESZ was similarly behind the curve after
the election's first round, but had fought its way back to
near-victory by round two. Clearly, Orban hopes for a
similar sprint to the finish line this time around.


13. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
WALKER