HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: BALATON RESORT TOWNS POISED

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000710

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: BALATON RESORT TOWNS POISED
TO VOTE FIDESZ AGAIN (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The FIDESZ campaign in the western resort towns of
Keszthely and Heviz is tagging the MSZP for high unemployment
and a sagging economy and hoping to use FIDESZ's improved
organizational skills to get unhappy voters to the polls on
April 9. A FIDESZ politician already in Parliament pegs his
hopes for the region on infrastructure improvements, and is
campaigning hard on promises that FIDESZ will bring new
opportunities to the region by building roads and a new
airport.

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BACKGROUND
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2. (U) The resort towns of Keszthely and Heviz are located
at the southwesternmost end of Lake Balaton. The areas were
considered "national treasures" during the communist era,
attracting visitors from across the Soviet bloc -- Keszthely
for its panoramic view of lake Balaton, and Heviz for its
"healing" thermal waters. Open borders spelled decline for
the region in the 1990s. Both towns were negatively impacted
by the growth in tourism to Croatian seaside resorts.
Unemployment is currently at an alltime high, averaging 10.5
percent in both cites. A drive around town showed numerous
businesses and houses for sale, including a large hotel on
the Balaton shore that was once considered a "summertime
must" for boaters on Europe's largest lake.


3. (SBU) According to 2002 figures, Zala County had 239,573
registered voters. Voter turnout for the 2002 elections at
about 70 percent, matched the national average. The county
has five individual constituencies and sends an additional
five representatives from the party lists. In 2002, FIDESZ
won a decisive victory in Zala; receiving fifty percent of
the vote to the MSZP's 36 percent. FIDESZ accordingly sent
three party-list MPs to Parliament and the MSZP two.

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FIDESZ Organizer Predicts "Smashing Victory"
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4. (SBU) A confident Keszthely FIDESZ campaign organizer
Istvan Bolcskei predicted April 4 that FIDESZ will win four
of five constituencies in Zala county "in the first round."
Bolcskei thought FIDESZ would maintain if not exceed, its
"fifteen percent" 2002 margin of victory. FIDESZ's organized,
methodical campaign strategy has "expanded" the identifiable
voter base, said Bolcskei. The party has developed voter
profiles, contact information and identified key regional
volunteers over the past four years, and began an extensive
"door-to-door" push on April 3. The campaign is directed
from Budapest, and requires a constant flow of information
from local volunteers and organizers, up through the regional
directors and ultimately back to FIDESZ headquarters.
Bolcskei maintained that FIDESZ had far less money that the
MSZP, and had economized during the earlier stages of the
campaign in order to saved its "blockbuster ads" for the
final ten days. (Note: Billboards and streetlamps in
Keszthely were an uninterrupted string of FIDESZ posters.)

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MP Focuses on Infrastructure In His Bid For A Repeat Win
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5. (SBU) FIDESZ parliamentarian Jeno Manninger predicted
April 4 that he would win by twenty percent as he had in

2002. (In 2002, Manninger won 60 percent of the vote to the
MSZP's Miklos Veer's 40 percent.) Crowds at his local
rallies, though small, have more than doubled from his last
election campaign, he said, and the recent FIDESZ regional
rally had filled the Keszthely convention center. Manninger
also alleged that an unexpectedly high number of Zala county
voters chartered buses to attend the April 1 FIDESZ rally in
Budapest. Flagging tourism and "unemployment that has doubled
under Gyurcsany" has made the MSZP an even easier target,
especially among a constituent base with pre-existing FIDESZ
sympathies.


6. (SBU) Infrastructure development is the "key to my
constituency's future" said Manninger. A civil engineer by
training, Manninger said Keszthely needs better roads and a
better airport to attract the German and Austrian tourists
the area's service economy needs to survive. A
long-abandoned Soviet airbase near Heviz, has recently been

reopened to accommodate commuter and commercial aircraft.
This is "a positive step" said Manninger, noting that budget
carrier Ryan Air has signed contracts to begin regular
service from Dublin and London to "Balaton International"
airport. On "the down side" according to Menninger, the
airport's instrumentation is "antiquated at best" and the
facility needs major upgrades (and government support) to be
a real success.


7. (U) North-south overland commerce passes through western
Hungary in order to "avoid Austrian tolls," said Manninger,
"putting tremendous strain" on the roads and spoiling the
region's resort town atmosphere. Manninger is campaigning
hard for road improvements that he says will help commercial
traffic "bypass" city centers. In "every speech I remind
people that FIDESZ" started the M-5 motorway that MSZP PM
Gyurcsany had recently opened to great fanfare. Noting the
EU's reluctance to fund road projects Manninger said he is
certain that FIDESZ President Orban can make a persuasive
argument for funding roads that would increase commerce
between the Balkans and central Europe.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) Both Keszthely and Heviz are overly dependent on
tourist income, and are now feeling the pinch as more
tourists, Hungarian and foreign, travel to more attractive
and less expensive destinations in Croatia. Their stagnant
economies are no doubt fertile ground for FIDESZ, and the
party appears poised to replicate its 2002 good showing here
in 2006.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
WALKER