Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST701
2006-04-05 17:04:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF THREE INDIVIDUAL

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0701/01 0951704
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051704Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8931
UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000701 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF THREE INDIVIDUAL
MANDATE RACES (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

-------
Summary
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UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000701

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF THREE INDIVIDUAL
MANDATE RACES (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) On April 9 and 23, 176 of the 386 members of
Parliament will be elected in individual mandate races. This
cable presents snapshots of three of those contests by way of
illustrating the varying considerations that complicate
efforts by observers to forecast the outcomes of any of many
of the individual candidate races.

--------------
Mayor Leaves FIDESZ to Run
Under MSZP-SZDSZ Banner
--------------


2. (U) The MSZP mayor of the eastern town of Kecskemet Gabor
Szecsi has a chance to make history in a traditionally
conservative district and win an individual seat under the
MSZP-SZDSZ banner. A popular second-term mayor of Hungary,s
&apricot country,8 Szecsi quit opposition party FIDESZ in
2004 following disputes with the party leadership,
particularly with Party Chairman Viktor Orban, over policy
issues. Szecsi has been smart enough to campaign on
traditionally conservative issues such as the relationship
with churches, the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of
the 1956 revolution, and support for ethnic Hungarians abroad.


3. (U) A Median poll in mid-March revealed that both Szecsi
and his FIDESZ rival, incumbent MP Zsolt Horvath, have 40
percent support in Kecskemet while their respective parties
are expected to receive 50 percent of the vote. Seventeen
percent of the voters remain undecided. Gabor Szecsi is
well-known: polls show that 95 percent of the town,s voters
know who he is as opposed to 76 percent for Horvath.
According to the survey, eleven percent of FIDESZ voters
would support Szecsi in his individual race because &he did
a lot for the city and has good connections.8 In addition
to his high approval rating as mayor there could be another
factor: it may be possible that not everyone has realized
that Szecsi has left FIDESZ. (That may also explain the
unusually small MSZP-SZDSZ logo on his posters.)

--------------
Budapest,s 11th District:
Opposition Friction May Play Into MSZP Hands
--------------


4. (SBU) The conservative, religious, middle-class dominates
Budapest's eleventh district, where MDF MP Miklos Csapody

has won every election since 1990. Csapody, however, now
faces a new challenge in the person of FIDESZ-nominated
Christian Democrat Andras Deak. FIDESZ-MDF relations, bad
enough at the national level, have marred this local race as
well, with the candidates having several times accused each
other of violating the electoral law. MSZP candidate,
Political State Secretary in the Prime Minister,s Office
Vilmos Szabo, hopes that the FIDESZ-MDF rivalry will play
into his hands. Szabo, who is Prime Minister Gyurcsany,s
top foreign political advisor, told Embassy last month he
believes his chances to win have been increased by the heated
Csapody-Deak contest. Szabo noted that Csapody has promised
he would not withdraw after the first round no matter the
outcome. &This could play into my hands; however, I cannot
take his promise for granted because we are human beings and
FIDESZ may offer a good job to Csapody8 to tempt him out of
the race. If Csapody withdraws, polls suggest that Deak will
likely defeat Szabo (52-48). (That would not be the end of
the road for Szabo, who is assured a seat as a member of the
MSZP,s Budapest party list.)

--------------
Budapest,s 5th District:
Coalition Bargain Needed to Beat FIDESZ
--------------


5. (U) Budapest,s center city fifth district ( where the
Embassy is located),is the battleground for MSZP Mayor Pal
Steiner, SZDSZ executive Ivan Peto, and FIDESZ,s campaign
chief Antal Rogan. With pensioners comprising almost half of
the voters, this district has been an MSZP-SZDSZ stronghold,
and has regularly seen high voter turnout (79 percent in
2002). SZDSZ heavyweight Ivan Peto is the District,s
incumbent. (Steiner withdrew in favor of Peto four years
ago.) Things have changed here since. Steiner is now not
only a successful mayor but he has moved quickly up his
party,s ladder and is a member of the MSZP Presidium.
Steiner and Peto,s rival is FIDESZ,s Antal Rogan, whom many

peg as the most talented second generation FIDESZ cadre.
(Rogan is rumored in some circles to be Orban,s successor
should FIDESZ lose this election.)


6. (SBU) Peto told Embassy the week of March 27 that it has
not been determined who will withdraw in the second round to
ensure a coalition victory in the district. Both politicians
will enter Parliament as members of their respective party
lists regardless. According to Peto, the key factor in the
decision to withdraw will be the SZDSZ,s first round
performance.


7. (SBU) An early-March Median poll showed that 47 percent of
decided voters in the district would vote for the MSZP as
opposed to 34 percent for FIDESZ, while the SZDSZ could
expect to receive 13 percent of the vote. MEDIAN reported
that Peto could expect 18 percent because ten percent of MSZP
voters polled said they would support him. (In 2002, Peto
received nine percent more votes than his party in the fifth
district.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) It is expected by many observers here that in a
great number of individual districts either the MSZP or
FIDESZ will register a first round victory, making a second
round unnecessary in as many as half of the constituencies.
(Party list voting occurs only in the first round. Second
round voting is held to determine the winner of the
remaining, individual races.) The above examples illustrate
some additional factors that complicate the task of
forecasting winners in individual mandate races.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index/cfm.
WALKER