Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST656
2006-03-30 15:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU 
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VZCZCXRO7242
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHUP #0656/01 0891527
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301527Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8865
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000656 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:
HEVES COUNTY (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644

B. BUDAPEST 00553

C. BUDAPEST 00644


-------
Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000656

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:
HEVES COUNTY (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644

B. BUDAPEST 00553

C. BUDAPEST 00644


--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) Heves County is an MSZP stronghold. During a March
23-24 election reporting trip through the region, most
interlocutors predicted that MSZP would win all six of the
individual mandates in the county. Although the region is a
traditional reservoir of strong Catholic sentiment, good
relations prevail between it and the MSZP dominated local
government. In addition, disarray in the FIDESZ ranks and a
booming economy associated with MSZP leadership point to the
likelihood of MSZP keeping all its parliamentary seats in the
region. As in other areas of the northeast, most locals
claim the Roma are easy targets for voter fraud and are not a
real political force.

--------------
Background
--------------


2. (U) Located to the northeast of Budapest, Heves County
has roughly 328,000 inhabitants and 260,000 registered
voters. Industry and mine closures following the 1989 regime
have adversely affected the northern and southern parts of
the county and these areas have not done well in attracting
new investment. The southern part of the county also has a
high proportion of Roma, most of whom live in small,
underdeveloped communities. The three large population
centers of Eger, Hatvan and Gyongyos have fared much better,
particularly by attracting foreign companies to new
industrial parks.


3. (U) The 2002 parliamentary elections confirmed Heves as
the most Socialist county in all of Hungary. All six
individual constituencies were won by MSZP candidates and
Socialists took 47 percent of regional list votes compared to
FIDESZ's 36 percent. The historical city of Eger is the
county seat. In addition to recent foreign investment, the
city also owes its prosperity and low unemployment to its
important tourist industry. In 2002 the single riding
encompassing Eger was won by MSZP mayor Dr. Imre Nagy in a
close race that went to the second round. Dr. Nagy's
opponent in 2006 is FIDESZ national heavyweight Ervin
Demeter, a former cabinet minister and a current MP.


--------------
FIDESZ at Each Others' Throats
--------------


4. (SBU) Journalist Gabor Kuhne of the Heves Megyei Hirlap
(a regional paper),told poloffs on March 24 that it would
take a "miracle" for FIDESZ to win the individual mandate
race in Eger because the local FIDESZ members are "at each
other's throats." Kuhne also gave similar odds for all
FIDESZ candidates throughout Heves County. According to
Kuhne, a conservative group called the "Local Patriots" is
traditionally at odds with FIDESZ on local issues. Composed
of members of the town's leading families, the "Local
Patriots" do not consider themselves a political party, but
its members have traditionally dominated the city government
(though it now has few representatives on the city council).
Kuhne also stated that FIDESZ fortunes are further
complicated by internal party personality clashes and a local
leadership vacuum. FIDESZ candidate Demeter has tenuous ties
to Eger and Kuhne speculated that Demeter was brought in as a
FIDESZ attempt to impose its will on the local party.


5. (SBU) MSZP's strength in the city stems from three
sources, observed Kuhne. About one third of the city's
population lives in a communist era "planned community"
(whose original residents were transplanted to Eger during
the previous regime) and these inhabitants are staunchly
MSZP. Eger's local college, Eszterhazy Karoly College, has a
socialist bent that influences the political thinking of the
many local leaders who attended classes there, and the city's
manifest prosperity is associated with MSZP's leadership.
Kuhne said that relations between the church and the city
government are good and that he really could not discern the
local church's position toward the various parties.
(Comment: Kuhne's inability to determine the local church
stance is in itself a significant indication of the good
relations between the church and the city government.) Kuhne
described the Roma as manipulated by various politicians and

BUDAPEST 00000656 002 OF 003


lacking political influence. Kuhne dismissed the Roma Unity
Party (which managed to get enough nominations for candidates
to run in two of Heves's districts) as a factor, stating that
nominations are easy to get.

--------------
Politicians Love the Roma
--------------


6. (SBU) Laszlo Molnar, an economics teacher at Eszterhazy
Karoly College, and an entrepreneur who runs a business
providing food and cleaning services to local government
institutions, echoed Kuhne's sentiments concerning Roma.
Molnar told poloffs on March 24 that "Politicians love the
Roma because they can be bought." Molnar said that eight of
his company's twenty-six employees were Roma. He claimed that
he actively recruits Roma out of a sense of social
responsibility and even then he found it hard to find any who
were "willing to work." Molnar said that many of his workers
tell him firsthand stories of politicians bribing Roma and
using them to commit vote-fraud.


7. (SBU) Molnar predicted an MSZP win in Eger saying that
FIDESZ had made two major mistakes in the campaign. The
first was that Demeter is unknown in the area and has few
ties to Eger, and the second is that Demeter entered the race
too late to win. Per Molnar the most important regional
issue is unemployment and he estimated the unemployment rate
to be 3-4 percent in Eger and 9-10 percent in the
countryside. Molnar said the city is doing well and
benefiting from its huge tourist influx and other prospering
industries. Molnar observed that Eger is a mostly Catholic
city and even though he is Catholic he considers himself a
"liberal Christian." He announced that he was "fed up" with
both MSZP and FIDESZ and would vote for SZDSZ or MDF.

--------------
Roma Businessman Pro-FIDESZ
--------------


8. (SBU) Local Roma Sandor Danyi told Poloffs that as a
businessman he supports FIDESZ because it is pro-small
business. Danyi, who is the managing director of a large
construction company said that during the past four years his
company had built significantly fewer buildings, and he
attributed this to MSZP's perceived poor family aid policy
which discourages new housing development. Danyi also
mentioned that in his opinion 95 percent of Roma support
"whoever gives them something." Still he said, FIDESZ would
have better economic and social aid plans for Roma because
MSZP plans require too much of a "down payment" from Roma.
(Comment: Poloffs interpreted this to mean that Danyi thinks
MSZP puts too many requirements on aid to Roma.) Danyi said
that he does not expect the Roma Unity Party to do anything
and that the Roma will not be a force unless various national
Roma leaders put aside their personal agendas and unite.


9. (SBU) Danyi predicted that MSZP would likely win in Eger
and said that running Demeter as a candidate was a "bad
decision" by FIDESZ. He added that MSZP would also win at
least five and maybe all six of the seats in Heves. Danyi
attributed MSZP's strength to the fact that the region was
doing extremely well economically and that tourism and
industry were booming. (Note: In December 2005 the mayor of
Hatvan, one of the main population centers in Heves County,
told poloffs that the unemployment rate overall was 3.5
percent and only 7-8 percent for the city's Roma. The
remarkably low Roma unemployment rate is a sure indicator of
the area's thriving economy.) Danyi did point out that while
Eger was doing well, Roma in the southern part of the county
were much worse off.

--------------
"Peaceful Co-existence"
--------------


10. (SBU) American Studies Professor Lehel Vadon explained
to Poloffs that prior to the communist era, Eger was a very
religious and conservative city. To counter this "bourgeois"
element, the government transplanted thousands of more
politically reliable citizens to Eger in the housing area
described in paragraph 5. In recent years, those who live in
that part of Eger have reasserted their socialist leanings
and this has contributed to MSZP's dominance. Dr. Vadon said
that voter apathy was also an issue. The professor who
teaches at Eszterhazy Karoly College, described the
relationship between the local MSZP government and the church
as one of "peaceful co-existence." As an example he told how
a local MSZP councilman had arranged for funds to restore a

BUDAPEST 00000656 003 OF 003


local church's altar. (Comment: The peaceful relations
between the Church and the city government certainly cannot
hurt MSZP as it may take the edge off anti-clerical charges
sometimes leveled against it elsewhere.)
REEKER