HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOTS FROM WESTERN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BUDAPEST 000629

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOTS FROM WESTERN
HUNGARY (C-RE6-00145)

REF: SECSTATE 22644

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Contacts in Gyor, Sopron, Szombathely, Csorna,
and Kormend predicted to Embassy representatives in March
21-24 meetings that opposition party FIDESZ would continue
to dominate western Hungary in the April general
elections. A majority of interlocutors believed that
FIDESZ would again win by a margin of approximately twenty
percent in the six counties that make up the northwest
quadrant of Hungary (Fejer, Komarom-Esztergom,
Gyor-Moson-Sopron, Veszprem, Vas and Zala). Local
politicians and voters from across the spectrum pegged
FIDESZ's dominance to church support, party discipline, and
widespread voter dissatisfaction with the Gyurcsany
government. Many local observers predicted that a large
number of individual constituency races would fall to
FIDESZ in the first round.

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Church Says &Bless Viktor Orban8
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2. (SBU) Observers across the spectrum in meetings March
21 - 24 in Gyor, Sopron, Szombathely, Csorna, and Kormend
reported that the Roman Catholic Church is overtly backing
opposition party FIDESZ's election efforts. Most
significantly, Easter, the most important religious day in
Hungary, falls in the "critical period" between the April 9
and 23 elections. Some alleged the Church's involvement
contributes significantly to the already conservative
voting tendencies in western and northwestern Hungary.
Although FIDESZ campaign organizers Akos Kara and Robert
Borsi in Gyor told Emboffs their party does not work
formally with the Church, Csorna mayor Jozsef Papp (MSZP)
disagreed. He pointed to recent appearance in regional
churches of flyers that read "Bless Viktor Orban." The
connection is even personal, said MSZP MP Lazslo Kranitz in
Sopron, pointing to Orban,s close relationship with Bishop
Lajos Papai of the Gyor diocese.


3. (SBU) FIDESZ Mayor Istvan Bebes in Kormend agreed that a
connection between FIDESZ and the Roman Catholic Church
exists, but downplayed its significance. The Church is "a
minor factor," said the mayor, because less than fifteen
percent of Hungarian Catholics attend church regularly and
"not all of them are FIDESZ supporters."

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Schools Have No Room for Debate
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4. (SBU) Politics may not be taboo in church, but it
certainly is in school, according to an English teacher at
Csorna's Janos Hunyadi High School. This educator said her
students would like to engage in "debate and discussion of
political issues," but the school expressly discourages the
practice. Teachers and administrators agreed that
Hungary's schools are not, in general, an open conduit for
debate. Although Hungary does not have laws prohibiting
political discussions, school administrators across Hungary
are hesitant to condone political discourse. Many remember
the "firestorm of hysteria" whipped up by widely publicized
media accusations that "schools exerted undue political
influence" in the 2002 elections.

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FIDESZ Strategy Cements Individual Western Races
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5. (SBU) Emboffs also visited Szombathely, where FIDESZ MP
Csaba Hende,s campaign manager Viktor Lazary offered
insights into his party,s national campaign structure.
(Note: In meetings with other FIDESZ campaign managers,
Emboffs have found them generally reluctant to provide
details about the mechanics of the party's campaign
apparatus.) Lazary said he "reports directly to one of
five regional directors" for communications, and that
specific campaign messages come directly from national
campaign director Antal Rogan. According to Lazary, local
managers only have discretion over placement of signs and
"decorating the office." Lazary declined to explain how
FIDESZ could afford hundreds of prominently-displayed (and
expensive) streetlight banners in Szombathely. He described
how volunteers had hit the streets and the phones in
mid-March, armed with voter-preference data gleaned over

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the past four years from FIDESZ information drives. He
said the volunteers would continue their fullcourt press
"until election day," reporting their contact statistics to
local managers, who then forward that information through
regional directors back to Budapest. Lazary averred that
FIDESZ was in "no danger of losing its twenty-percent
margin of victory" from 2002.

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Basketball Mayor Popular With Voters But Not FIDESZ Party
Leadership
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6. (SBU) In Kormend, Mayor and MP Istvan Bebes said
"privatized medicine works here," to the chagrin of his own
(FIDESZ) party officials. He said his decision to
privatize the regional hospital isolated him from the party
leadership, especially from FIDESZ President Orban and his
proposed deputy, and former Minister of Health, Istvan
Mikola because it goes against the party's preference for
continued state ownership of hospitals. Bebes said his very
low ranking on the county and national party lists is
evidence that he and Orban "do not have a friendly
relationship." Bebes does not mind his estranged
relationship with the party, because he "will win his
constituency in the first round anyway." The six-foot, ten
inch mayor was earlier a star player in the Hungarian
Basketball Association, and still enjoys residual
popularity from his days on the court.

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Miscalculation Costs MSZP Csorna Mayor a Parliament Seat
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7. (SBU) Csorna Mayor Jozsef Papp (MSZP) echoed Bebes in
describing his difficulties with his party. In Papp's
case, it was the governing MSZP (Socialist) party. Papp
said that his standing within the MSZP had been hurt by his
decision not to run for county party chairman in 2003.
Instead, he served as Interior Minister Monika Lamperth,s
deputy on the Association of Leftist Local Governments
(BOK). His decision had cost him the support of the party
leadership and Papp had accordingly been moved far down the
party list. Papp now faces an uphill battle against FIDESZ
Parliament faction head Janos Ader, to whom he lost in the
first round in 2002. Unless Papp wins his constituency in
the first round this time (an unlikely prospect),his poor
rankings (number four on the county list and 159 on the
national list) will mean his only hope is that current
county party chairman Csaba Molnar and German-Hungarian
School director Zsuzsana Toth win their
individual-constituency races, thus dropping off the party
lists and moving Papp up the pecking order.


8. (SBU) According to Papp, FIDESZ will duplicate its
twenty percent margin of victory in 2006, as demographics
have not changed in the traditionally conservative
Gyor-Sopron-Moson County. Nationally, the MSZP is stronger
and more disciplined under Gyurcsany,s leadership than it
was in 2002. However, Papp believed that neither Gyurcsany
nor the pork he is sending Csorna by way of roads and
renovations will be enough to return him to Parliament.

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A FIDESZ Mule Could Win Sopron, Says Kranitz
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9. (SBU) On March 22, Sopron's MSZP Chairman and MP Laszlo
Kranitz told Emboffs that he expects low turnout and a
FIDESZ victory in his city. He would be satisfied if
FIDESZ did not increase its 2002 15-point margin of victory
over the MSZP. (Note: In the last election, FIDESZ
received 51 percent in Gyor-Sopron-Moson County; MSZP
received 36 percent.) Kranitz said people vote for parties
not personalities in Sopron, and he claimed that "a deaf
mule could run for FIDESZ and win Sopron." Kranitz expects
at least ten percent less turnout in 2006 than four years
ago. "People are tired of politics and of going to the
ballots every six months." (Note: In the past four years,
Sopron has seen two by-elections and the European
Parliament election.)


10. (SBU) Kranitz, a member of Parliament,s Foreign
Affairs Committee, predicted there will be no change in
Hungary,s foreign policy or the strength of the
transatlantic relationship, no matter what the election
results. He said President Bush,s positive remarks on
Hungary,s National Day and recent visits by Prime Minister
Blair and President Putin, resonated well with MSZP

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voters. Kranitz said, in order to boost his international
image among domestic voters, Orban made a "desperate run to
Berlin and Vienna" to see leaders (who reportedly refused
to come to Budapest).

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Gyor Mayor May Be Sole Victory for MSZP
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11. (SBU) FIDESZ campaign organizers Akos Kara and Robert
Borsi, told emboffs that FIDESZ will win six of seven MP
seats in Gyor-Moson-Sopron county. Gyor,s MSZP Mayor
Jozsef Balogh, the former Communist whose approval rating
has increased with each election since 1990, is the only
question mark in the FIDESZ-dominated county. Sources
estimate Balogh has a 15-point lead over his party and a
five-point lead over FIDESZ rival and party spokesman
Peter Szijjarto. Mayor Balogh (like the MSZP) is more
popular in the urban areas, and lags in the countryside
where "socialists and liberals have disappeared" in the
past ten years. Szijjarto,s frequent attacks on Gyurcsany
and the MSZP are "attracting voters" said Kara and Borsi
because he is "willing to standup and tell the truth."
(Szijjarto has been called "Gyurcsany,s pit bull" for his
aggressively negative campaign tactics.)

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Independent Sopron Mayor Says Civil Service Reform is Past
Due
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12. (SBU) Sopron Mayor Dezso Walter reflected on the
likelihood of sweeping civil service reforms and the
effects local mayor's will feel in the fall elections, if
the promised reforms occur, saying the reforms are
"important and past due." Walter, an independent mayor
that sympathizes with the MSZP, declared that he plans to
downsize city hall by ten percent after the April national
elections, regardless of who wins. He is sure that both
Gyurcsany and Orban are determined to reform public
administration &that is way overdue in Hungary.8

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MIEP is Alive But Not Well in Sopron
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13. (SBU) Dean of the West Hungary University Forestry
Department Karoly Meszaros told Emboffs that rumors of
considerable MIEP (a far-right party) influence among
students are ungrounded. Meszaros said that two former
MIEP MPs Csaba Lentner and Erzsebet Gidai are professors at
the university, but that neither the faculty nor students
take their views seriously. In fact, politics in general
"cause little excitement" among the student body. The most
spirited debates among students, said Meszaros are "over
E.U. agricultural policies" and their effect on Hungary.
Meszaros said the political "temperature of the students"
is pro-FIDESZ, but said he doubts students will "turn out
to vote" in substantial numbers.

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Have / Have-Not Gap Widens for Average Hungarians
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14. (SBU) Economic frustrations run high in western
Hungary,s Vas County, according to a group of "average
Hungarians" who said unfair competition by multinational
companies and inadequate domestic social policy are
"starving Hungarian workers." The group identified
themselves as "lower income" and ranged in age from
approximately 25-55 years old. Two couples in the group
have children and support pensioner parents on a single
income. One spouse in each couple recently lost his/her
job. Said a young lady in her twenties, "at least under
communism people knew they had a job, a place to live and
enough money to meet their needs." A middle-aged couple
shared this frustration, and agreed with the FIDESZ slogan
"we are worse off than four years ago." They all blamed
the Gyurcsany government for "allowing uncertainty" to
pervade Hungary. Sources in the region say "cheap labor
jobs" that sprang up in the early 1990s have moved further
east (where taxes are lower),leaving the region,s largely
unskilled populace unable to compete for higher-paying
jobs. Average Hungarians believe the income gap in Vas is
growing, as the middle class, in their view, shrinks.

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Comment
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BUDAPEST 00000629 004.2 OF 004




15. (SBU) Dissatisfaction among voters and a
deeply-rooted conservatism seem to suggest an almost
certain victory for FIDESZ in western Hungary. All
interlocutors agreed the Roman Catholic Church is more
involved in politics in this cycle, than in any previous
election. Most observers agreed that party affiliations
trumps personality in western Hungary, a factor that also
may increase FIDESZ's chances.


16. (U) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
REEKER