HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: MSZP MAY GAIN GROUND IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000573

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: MSZP MAY GAIN GROUND IN
VESZPREM (C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

Classified By: DCM Philip Reeker. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) On March 14, SZDSZ and FIDESZ contacts in Veszprem
County agreed that FIDESZ is losing its tight grip locally.
Whereas in 2002, they enjoyed victories in six of the seven
individual constituencies, their MSZP (Socialist) rivals may
win as many as three this April, according to Veszprem's
SZDSZ mayor. However, Orban's selection of Istvan Mikola as
his running mate may bring out more of his party's core
voters, many of whom were expected to stay home following
party missteps -- and the bad press that accompanied them.
The fact that FIDESZ may be slipping from its stronghold in
Veszprem suggests a tighter, more aggressive race nationwide.

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Background
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2. (U) Voter turnout in Veszprem County matched the national
average in 2002, when 73 percent of its 293,000 registered
voters cast ballots. This medium-sized county in Hungary's
northeast has five party-list constituencies and seven
individual constituencies spanning Veszprem (two
constituencies),Ajka, Balatonfured, Papa, Tapolca, and
Varpalota. FIDESZ dominated 2002 voting in Veszprem County,
receiving 48 percent of the popular vote against the MSZP,s
37 percent, winning four individual constituencies in the
first round. In the end, FIDESZ took six of the seven
individual constituencies, leaving one to MSZP's Bela Pal,
currently Political State Secretary for Tourism in the Prime
Minister's Office. In the current race, Pal faces Tibor
Navracsic, FIDESZ President Viktor Orban,s chief of cabinet.
Of the five party-list constituencies, FIDESZ won three in
2002, and MSZP took two. The SZDSZ performed slightly above
the minimum five-percent threshold required to enter
Parliament, and the far-right Truth and Life Party (MIEP)
gathered just over three percent.

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Possible Transition in Veszprem
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3. (SBU) On March 14, SZDSZ Mayor Laszlo Diossy predicted to
Emboffs that the MSZP will gain two additional seats in
Veszprem County in this election, giving the party three out
of the seven individual constituencies. Diossy cited FIDESZ
miscues as key reasons for his optimism. The mayor added
that MSZP's overall campaign is "improving greatly" from its
rocky start in January, and is having a positive effect in
Veszprem. However, Gyula Porga, chief strategist for FIDESZ
candidate Tibor Navracsics, described Veszprem County as
firmly behind FIDESZ -- although he conceded that his party's
mistakes may keep some FIDESZ voters at home on election day.


4. (C) Diossy, one of only five mayors nationwide to have
won every election since 1990, claimed that his endorsement
will add as much as nine percent of the vote for coalition
partner MSZP in the city of Veszprem. Diossy added that he
was brokering a deal between candidates Andras Szalai (SZDSZ)
and Bela Pal (MSZP) under which Szalai would withdraw in the
second round, throwing SZDSZ support to Pal. In return, the
MSZP will support the SZDSZ in the autumn mayoral race, in
which Diossy is unsure whether he will compete.


5. (SBU) In Veszprem, FIDESZ will benefit from the
nomination of Istvan Mikola for Orban's proposed Deputy Prime
Minister post, according to Porga. The strategist added that
Mikola is a well-known FIDESZ-slash-Christian Democrat who
will "mobilize critical core voters" in the county, where the
press reports of campaign misdoings are souring the FIDESZ
faithful. Incumbent Tibor Navracsics needs "14,000 votes" to
win his constituency, according to Porga, and the Mikola
announcement will help attract voters. Porga expressed
confidence that Navracsics's position as "Orban's top
advisor," along with his "charismatic" style, will boost him
to victory.

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FIDESZ Strategist Talks About Blackmail
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6. (C) Efforts to blackmail MDF candidates and other FIDESZ
missteps to date are "completely unnecessary" and hurt the
party,s chances of returning to power, said Gyula Porga.

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Recent media reports list one Veszprem County constituency as
one of 27 areas where MDF candidates have been "pressured" by
FIDESZ to withdraw from the elections. Though MDF still has
a candidate in the race, Porga said there is no chance of MDF
reaching the five-percent threshold, given that it "barely"
collected the 750 tickets necessary to appear on the ballot.
Attempting to make the best of a bad situation, Porga laughed
off the incident, saying "FIDESZ has always made mistakes"
but is still the "strongest" party in Hungary.


7. (C) Mayor Diossy also commented on FIDESZ's gaffe-plagued
race, saying "poor campaigning" will keep the party,s
supporters at home. The mayor stated that Gyurcsany recently
drew "much bigger" crowds than Orban in Veszprem, where the
prime minister "filled the entire sports arena, when Orban
could not even fill a high school gym."

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On the National Stage
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8. (SBU) Mayor Diossy said that Economy and Transport
Minister Koka (SZDSZ) is running a good campaign and will
win, but faces a "tough race in the Budapest castle
district." Mayor Diossy,s brother Gabor is Koka,s
Political State Secretary and principal advisor. The MSZP
will pull out of the Budapest castle district race "in a few
days," according to the Veszprem mayor, leaving Koka to face
FIDESZ incumbent Gabor Tamas Nagy in the historically
conservative district. After the elections, the SZDSZ will
turn "from ideology toward economics," bolstered by Koka,s
"new blood," said Diossy. The mayor acknowledged being "in
the room" when Koka was named number two on the SZDSZ party
list. He identified Koka as "the future of SZDSZ."

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Comment
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9. (C) The fact that Veszprem is still too close to call
remains true of the overall election. It is also significant
because the region can no longer be considered a FIDESZ
"lock." Unlike in past elections, FIDESZ now faces a stiff
challenge in Veszprem, and the races there will almost surely
not be decided in the first round. Even a FIDESZ campaign
strategist in the county admitted that his party's mistakes
in the campaign will likely cost it at the ballot box. What
is unclear at this point is how dearly FIDESZ will pay, and
whether MSZP will reap the benefits by picking up two
additional constituencies.


10. (U) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm.


WALKER