Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST553
2006-03-16 15:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0553/01 0751539
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161539Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8753
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000553 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST
(C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POL/C BOB PATTERSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AN
D (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000553

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST
(C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POL/C BOB PATTERSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AN
D (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Borsod-Abauj- Zemplen County in Hungary's northeast
region is mostly rural, suffers from high unemployment and is
a stronghold of the Reformed and Catholic Churches. Local
observers believe that county voters will likely elect a
majority of MSZP candidates to Parliament,although FIDESZ
candidates may win a few individual races. Observers think
that the District Ten race will almost certainly be won by
FIDESZ incumbent Richard Horcsik (despite an interesting
challenge from an MDF candidate),and the District 11 race
will in all probability be won by MSZP incumbent Gyorgy
Szabo. During March 8-9 discussions, local residents said
the key local issues were unemployment, despair, youth and
skilled worker flight from the area, and a lack of
infrastructure. Most voiced the opinion that the Catholic and
Reformed Church members will generally vote conservative, and
they discounted the county's large Roma population as a
political force.

--------------
Background
--------------


2. (U) Borsod-Abauj-Zemplen county is located in
northeastern Hungary near the Slovak border. Of the 19
regions in Hungary, Borsod is the second largest in terms of
territory. Much of the region ranks in the lowest tier of
Hungary's social-economic development, and unemployment,
hovering around 18 percent (compared to 7 percent
nationally),remains the greatest concern. This is
particularly true of the smaller communities, many of whose
inhabitants saw their jobs disappear as socialist era
industries shut down after the political transition. Those
that are employed work mainly in the government sector or in
agriculture or agriculture-related business. A 2003 survey
put the region's population at just above 738,000, including
a high concentration of Roma, most of whom live in deep
poverty. In 2002, the region counted 578,896 registered
voters. The county's largest city and capital is the

industrial center of Miskolc, which is generally held to be
an MSZP stronghold. The county on the whole has traditionally
voted for MSZP, with the party garnering 47 percent of the
vote for the regional list in 2002. Its closest rival was the
joint FIDESZ-MDF list, which attracted 37 percent of the
vote. None of the smaller parties running in 2002 received
more that 4 percent of the vote. Of the 13 individual
constituencies in the region, in 2002 nine went to MSZP
candidates and four to FIDESZ.

--------------
Out in the Sticks: District 10
--------------


3. (U) The majority of the Tenth District's roughly 49,000
registered voters live in the towns of Sarospatak and
Satoraljaujhely. Most of the rest of population is scattered
among the close to 40 rural villages. In the previous 2002
parliamentary election the voting district elected FIDESZ MP
Dr. Richard Horcsik to Parliament. At the time, FIDESZ and
junior opposition party MDF were in alliance and Dr. Horcsik
was a joint candidate representing both parties on the
ballot. His main opponent in 2002 was MSZP candidate Mr.
Gyozo Soos, who in the second round of voting received 44
percent of the votes to Horcsik's 55 percent.


4. (SBU) During March 8-9 meetings with various members of
the community unanimously claimed that unemployment was the
number one concern in the region and that national politics
was of little consequence. Several community members worried
that those aged 20-45 were fleeing to Miskolc or Budapest in
order to find work. There was a widespread perception that
both the Catholic and Reform churchgoers and farmers
generally support FIDESZ, while the larger towns tend to back
MSZP. All agreed that the Roma community was easily
manipulated but that they were not a political factor in
themselves. Most indicated their belief that Horcsik would
prevail, but that the MSZP would remain dominant in the
county.

--------------
The Two Heavyweights
--------------



5. (C) The real race for the 10th district individual
mandate is between FIDESZ incumbent Richard Horcsik and Gabor
Janosdeak, the MDF supported "independent" mayor of
Sarospatak. Although MSZP is expected to garner the second
largest number of votes in the first round, Istvan Vecsi, the
MSZP candidate, is considered by virtually all to be not a
threat. The interesting action will occur in the second
round when third-party votes are up for grabs.

--------------
FIDESZ - Horcsik
--------------


6. (U) Horcsik is a nationally influential and popular
FIDESZ MP, serving as a deputy faction head and on the
Council of Europe. Except for the 1994-1998 cycle, Horcsik
has been in Parliament since 1990 and has won his individual
constituency since 1998. A Reform Church Minister who once
taught college in the U.S., Horcsik is a local who graduated
from Sarospatak's famous Reformed College. Most of his
support comes from the villages and countryside. Even those
individuals who are not FIDESZ sympathizers acknowledged that
when Horcsik was MP in the FIDESZ government (1998-2002) he
was very successful in promoting the interests of his
constituency at the national level, particularly in improving
access at nearby border crossings with Slovakia and Ukraine
and basic infrastructure development.


7. (C) Horcsik told poloffs that national issues were not a
factor and that the race would focus entirely on the local
candidates. During meetings with poloffs, Horcsik described
the main issue as unemployment, claiming that his district
had an overall unemployment rate of 30 percent with some
areas at 70 percent. He plans to reach out to his
constituents by focusing on infrastructure development and
subsidized housing for the young and elderly. Horcsik was
clearly frustrated by the presence of Janosdeak in the race,
and there appears to be a great deal of personal animosity
between the two. The MP told poloffs that if this were a
straight FIDESZ-MSZP race he would easily win in the first
round. While he is confident of winning regardless, Horcsik
stated that Janosdeak's involvement guarantees the race will
go to the second round and that it will be a longer and
nastier campaign. Horcsik also emphasized that the current
National Development Plan (NDP) that was crafted by the MSZP
government is a disaster for his county. According to
Horcsik, the NDP details virtually no EU development funds to
the region for the 2007-2013 EU budgetary cycle. The
generally jovial Horcsik was so livid over the issue that he
actually choked up and said "I'm so mad at this (obscenity)
government."


8. (C) Horcsik described the region as the "conservative
Christian" area of Hungary and he is not hesitant to appeal
to his Reformed Church roots. On March 8 Poloffs observed a
celebration for International Women's Day in Vajdacska, a
small village outside Sarospatak (boasting one of the few
female mayors in the county),where Horcsik was the guest of
honor. He didn't bother to give a speech, choosing instead
to read from his Bible (Proverbs 31). In a meeting the
following day (March 9) Horcsik was quick to dismiss the Roma
as a political force, calling them a "black hole" about whom
no one knows what is going on. (The region is dotted with
many Roma-majority or all-Roma settlements and Roma are
thought to constitute about 10-15 percent of the population.)
Horcsik observed that when the Roma do vote, it is only
because they are promised a few thousand forints or a few
kilos of food.

--------------
MDF - Janosdeak
--------------


9. (C) Janosdeak is also home-grown politician. He is a
lawyer and has been mayor of Sarospatak for 16 years.
Although he calls himself an independent, he is widely
perceived to be closely associated with MSZP. In 2005 he
even attempted to be the MSZP candidate for the tenth
district before he withdrew his name. He says that local MDF
voters approached him to run with their support, but that
there is no real MDF organization left in the district.
Sarospatak tends to lean to the conservative side of the
political spectrum, but Janosdeak's obvious popularity makes
this his private stronghold.


10. (C) Janosdeak also stated that unemployment was the key
concern and that this would be a race between individuals.
Janosdeak hopes to help this situation by pushing for a
thruway extension from Miskolc (the only way to reach

Sarospatak by road is via 60 kilometers of two-lane
blacktop),developing an industrial park and promoting
tourism, spas and winter sports. He admitted that most of his
support would be found only in Sarospatak, but he claimed
that he thinks he has a good chance of entering the second
round of elections outright, making it a 3-way contest.


11. (C) Janosdeak agreed that religion influences how many
voters feel. He observed that about one-third of the region's
voters tend to be regular churchgoers and that of these
one-third were Reformed and two-thirds Catholic. He said
churchgoers tend to vote conservative but he expressed his
disdain for the church in general, alleging it could be
bought off (likely a reference to the school subsidy issue.)
The Mayor agreed that Roma were easily manipulated and
politically apathetic.

--------------
The X Factor
--------------


12. (C) Further complicating matters is the presence in the
race of MIEP candidate Attila Barati. Barati is the mayor of
the village of Pacin and his support springs from the area of
Bodrogkoz, an area which has a large Roma population and high
rates of unemployment and petty crime. Barati is not overtly
anti-Roma, but his law and order approach appeals to the
residents of that area who are fed up with the local crime
rate, which they trace to the Roma community. When Barati
last ran in 1998, he garnered close to 8 percent of the vote.
Local journalist Attila Bodisz (who by his own admission is
no FIDESZ supporter) estimated that Horcsik has a 75 percent
chance to win the election, but with so many third party
votes up for grabs it is far from a lock. Assuming that
Horcsik would easily gather the most votes in the first
round, Bodisz presented two possible scenarios for the second
round: The first would occur if the MSZP candidate gained the
second largest amount of votes in the first round. In this
case, even if Janosdeak threw his support to MSZP, it would
likely not be enough for Vecsi to win as many conservative
MDF supporters would not vote for MSZP. The second case
would involve Janosdeak garnering the second largest vote
total in the first round. In this case MSZP would likely
throw its weight behind Janosdeak and with his well-known
MSZP leanings he would likely keep most of them, thus making
it a much closer affair. Bodisz said no one could truly
predict what would happen with the MIEP votes, but they might
just be enough to turn the tide for either party.

--------------
On the Periphery
--------------


13. (SBU) That both Janosdeak and Horcsik are in touch with
the situation on the ground was made quite clear after
discussing the campaign with local citizens. In order to
find out the perspective from the religious demographic,
poloffs met with Dr. Erdei Palne, director of the Sarospatak
Reformed College. In addition to the issues of unemployment
and the drain of youth and intellectuals, Dr. Palne pointed
out that the region is quite literally on the periphery,
lacking any major infrastructure to connect it to the rest of
Hungary and this translates into a sense of social
marginalization. Palne said that the high unemployment rate
has affected the students; in many cases they are not able to
pay their tuition and the school will be forced to make
cutbacks. The Roma situation was also emphasized when Palne
said that they have about 7 Roma students (out of a student
body of 800). She agreed that the election here is mostly
about local issues, but that broader issues are also
important to the church. Because of this, churchgoers are
more likely to focus on the party platform and vote
ideologically, i.e., for FIDESZ. Palne made several comments
concerning tension between the local government and the
Church. When asked who she thought would win the election,
she took an obvious shot at Janosdeak by responding "The
candidate who doesn't keep changing his colors."


14. (SBU) Similar sentiments were expressed by Aniko Plosz,
the economic director of the area's main tourist attraction,
Sarospatak Castle. Plosz added a personal touch to the
constant drumbeat of youth flight, describing how her own
children had left the area to find work. The unemployment
situation was emphasized by Plosz's claim that the Castle and
the Reform College were the two main institutions propping up
Sarospatak financially. Although not as obviously pro-Fidesz
as Palne, Plosz predicted a Horcsik win based on his
popularity in the countryside, and his past help in improving
the local infrastructure. She also referred indirectly to
the perception of Janosdeak as self serving by claiming that

character issues would also help Horcsik win re-election.


15. (SBU) Local journalist Attila Bodisz gave a balanced and
clear picture of the situation. Although he didn't reveal
his party affiliation, he said he was definitely not a FIDESZ
supporter. In addition to the above mentioned campaign
analysis, Bodisz shed some insight on why Horcsik retains his
popularity. Besides Horcsik, several other FIDESZ
heavyweights, such as party ideologue Istvan Stumpf, have
close ties to the region. Many locals want a "heavy dose of
positive discrimination" for the region and believe that with
FIDESZ back in power, Horcsik will be able to direct funds
and projects their way. Horcsik does have some handicaps
however, as Bodisz said that many perceive the incumbent's
advisors to be opportunists. Bodisz also said that he expects
the campaign to get nastier as there is a rumor in the wind
about FIDESZ advisors reporting to the police about dirt on
Janosdeak. Despite Horcsik winning individually, Bodisz
predicted along with the others, that MSZP would dominate the
county.

--------------
Rematch: District 11
--------------


16. (U) Closer to Budapest than the tenth district, the
eleventh voting district is similar in size to the tenth,
with roughly 48,000 registered voters. The district is no
stranger to political intrigue when it comes to electing its
parliamentary representative. In the 1998 general elections
voters chose Mihaly Kupa as their representative. Kupa, who
is now head of the marginal Centrum Party, was the last
independent MP elected to the Hungarian National Assembly. In
2002 the race between the FIDESZ candidate Ferenc Koncz and
Gyorgy Szabo from MSZP was decided by a mere five votes for
the latter. A series of legal disputes ensued involving
ballot recounts, which ended with an official win by Szabo by
two votes.


17. (SBU) Despite being closer to Budapest and more
connected to Hungary in general, the locals of the eleventh
district evinced much more despair than those around
Sarospatak. Unemployment and disillusionment was the theme.
As in the tenth district, most residents felt that MSZP would
win the county, religious voters tend to go with conservative
parties and the Roma were not considered a force at the
ballot box. They differed though, in that all said that
national party platforms, not local politics, are what matter
most to voters. The negative campaigning of FIDESZ was often
mentioned as unfavorable for the party. Although the current
race is a rematch of the razor close 2002 election, the vast
majority of people interviewed predicted MSZP candidate
Gyorgy Szabo would win re-election. Most based this opinion
largely on Szabo's reasonable record of bringing support to
the area, the poorly-run FIDESZ campaign, and the fact that
the area was hemorrhaging younger adults who traditionally
vote FIDESZ.

--------------
"This Region is Cursed"
--------------


18. (SBU) Hopelessness was the order of the day in
Legyesbenye (population 1700),a farming village located
between Miskolc and Sarospatak. During a March 9 roundtable
with local villagers, all were unanimous in identifying
joblessness as the number one regional concern. One local, a
locksmith who has been unemployed for seven years, described
the region as "cursed". He voiced the dominant opinion that
long term prospects for the area are bleak with no investors
and the few remaining manufacturing and agricultural jobs
threatened by EU accession and "globalization." This was
echoed by the owner of the local pub, who said that virtually
all his customers voiced their disillusionment and despair.
He said that political apathy was rife in the region.
Another villager who has served on several local election
commissions said that Legyesbneye's turnout averages 40-45
percent for any kind of vote and that this figure is more
than 10 percent below the national average. A small business
owner complained that there was virtually no incentive for
entrepeneurship as high taxes and complex tax laws severely
hampered any chance of profit. Roma non-involvement was still
the theme, and several of the participants said the local
Roma population was only around 5 percent.


19. (SBU) All agreed that the race was purely between
parties and no one in the group could recall when a
parliamentary candidate had last visited the village. Five
of the seven said that MSZP would win the individual race,
one thought it could go either way and one felt FIDESZ would

win individually. Everyone said MSZP was almost sure to win
the county because everyone voted by party and MSZP is
traditionally strong in the area. The pub owner emphasized
the tendency to vote by party when he observed that many of
his customers could not even identify the candidate of their
party. However, he did not say whether this was due to
political apathy or other reasons.

--------------
Farmers Cultivate MSZP
--------------


20. (SBU) In the village of Bekecs (population 2500),
Poloffs met at the same time with Laszlo Varga, the retired
director of the local farm co-op and a MSZP sympathizer, and
Attila Fesus, FIDESZ supporter and owner of a local
agri-business. In spite of the vast gulf between their
parties, they concurred on the lay of the land. In regards
to religion, both felt that churchgoers were more inclined to
vote conservative, but clergy influence was probably limited
to older parishioners. Younger religious voters were likely
to be fewer and independent. Regardless, the church was not
as big an influence in this particular area because as Fesus
stated, "It's hard to reverse 40 years of atheism." As in
Legyesbenye, the consensus was that national politics trumps
local politics. Varga mentioned that many of the local
farmers and pensioners are nostalgic for the Kadar era and
associate MSZP with the security they remember. Fesus also
stated that in his view, FIDESZ's focus on negative
campaigning would turn off independent voters. As a result,
he thought this farm-dominated area would go for MSZP
individually and county-wide.

--------------
No Sweet Dreams for Szerencs
--------------


21. (SBU) Local intellectual and FIDESZ supporter Lazslone
Fazekas's thoughts dovetailed with the rest of the eleventh
district inhabitants. Fazekas is the director of the castle
museum in Szerencs, an agricultural hub town of about 10,000
people. Of course, unemployment figured prominently as the
issue in his view. Fazekas noted that the town's two main
employers had been a chocolate factory and a sugar factory.
In recent years, the chocolate factory was purchased by
NESTLE, which then moved most of its production to the Czech
Republic, leaving only about 300 jobs out of several thousand
at the plant. The sugar factory is also facing problems as a
decrease in government subsidies makes its future uncertain.
If the factory closes, Fazekas says the impact on the area
would be devastating as much of the local agriculture
revolves around sugar beet production. The joblessness has
also led to skilled labor and youth flight, further
contributing to the region's sense of despair.


22. (SBU) Although she dismissed it as a political factor,
Fazekas said the Roma community was an issue. She commented
on the fact that their population was increasing because of
their higher birth rates. She claimed that many villages
were completely Roma and others were in the process of being
"Roma-fied." Even though the Roma are politically uninvolved,
Fazekas said that the fact most are dependent on the state
for a living makes this a situation of concern for the
region. According to Fazekas, her concern is not that they
are Roma, but that they are unemployed.


23. (SBU) As a result of its agricultural influences and
large unemployment rate, Fazekas said that Szerencs tends to
lean to the left. Local FIDESZ supporters tend to be members
of the intellectual class and ex-56ers, in addition to
Calvinist and Catholic believers. Fazekas's main concern was
the harsh political climate in Hungary. The region is filled
with angst and there is no dialogue between the parties.
Fazekas said that party sympathizers will not even identify
themselves as such because they are cowed by the atmosphere.
Still, locals tend to vote by party and as such she expects
Szabo to triumph over Koncze and MSZP to control the county.
Fazekas also observed that FIDESZ's negative campaign was
counter-productive as it would alienate more undecided voters
than it would attract, further helping MSZP.


24. (U) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm.
WALKER