ON THE CONTRARY: FIDESZ OFFERS OPPOSITION WITHOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002236

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON AND ADAM
STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON HU
SUBJECT: ON THE CONTRARY: FIDESZ OFFERS OPPOSITION WITHOUT
ALTERNATIVES

REF: BUDAPEST 2229 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Ambassador Foley's November 2 meeting with
Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth
highlights the inability of FIDESZ to match its ideological
zeal with a detailed policy agenda in the ongoing
confrontation with the Gyurcsany government.

Divide and Destroy ...


2. (C) After expressing great satisfaction with his recent
trip to the U.S., particularly his meetings with EUR P/DAS
Volker and DAS DiCarlo, Nemeth turned to Hungary's domestic
political situation. He asserted that "only our side is
post-communist," and that accordingly the political divide in
Hungary is "not between conservatives and liberals as it is
in Poland, but between communists and anti-communists." He
commented that the "monolithic" MSZP realizes that the
present conflict is for the "survival of the communist elite"
and that FIDESZ's goal must be "the ultimate destruction of
the communists." In the near-term, he noted, they would
continue efforts to divide the MSZP over the issue of
Gyurcsany's continued leadership. The upcoming referendum
(septel),he continued, would serve as a public referendum on
the Gyurcsany government. He explained that the seventh
question proposed for the referendum had been designed in
particular to "hold Gyurcsany accountable for his campaign
promises" and their impact on the deficit.


3. (C) Ambassador Foley highlighted the economic risks of
continued political gridlock, underscoring the "mutual
irresponsibility" of both the government and the opposition
for their unrealistic campaign promises. DCM Reeker added
that the opposition's "disturbing focus on the past" had led
many to question what FIDESZ stands for. For example, he
continued, FIDESZ portrays the MSZP as "communists" but has
itself maintained that the government should "provide
everything from the cradle to the grave."

But Don't Define


4. (C) Nemeth suggested that specific policy questions be
discussed "by experts," responding only that FIDESZ had never
"consciously misled the public" and had managed the economy
responsibly during the Orban government. He charged that
"Medgessey/Gyurcsany government" was to blame, and drew
little distinction between the two. The MSZP government is a
"media government," focused only on keeping power and lacking
the political conviction and the public credibility to
undertake fundamental change. For its part, FIDESZ would
support "incentives and investment," though Nemeth stated
that multi-national corporations should work "as an engine"
driving the growith of local SME's rather than creating a
division between rich and poor "like Latin America's dual
economy." Ambassador Foley responded that if "working like
an engine" meant "being taxed to death" then this would
hardly meet with the private sector's support.


5. (C) Turning briefly to the more familiar territory of
foreign policy, Nemeth underscored FIDESZ's commitment to
separating Hungary's international obligations from its own
political agenda, specifically reiterating his support for
the "crucial" PRT mission in Afghanistan and for our approach
on Kosovo status. In what he admitted was a rare word of
praise for the PM, he supported Gyurcsany's decision not to
meet with Slovak PM Fico, noting that "some signal from
Bratislava" would be a necessary precondition.
"International relations," he concluded, "will not suffer
because of our internal issues."


6. (C) Returning to the domestic political scene, Nemeth
noted FIDESZ's plan to publish a book detailing "horrifying"
charges of police brutality. He charged that the police had
instigated violent incidents and had kept many of their
"victims" in long-term detention. He also alleged that the
police had compelled individuals to sign statements that
"nothing happened" as a precondition for their release from
custody. The government's goal, he concluded, is to portray
the opposition as criminal and thus alienate the public,
whatever the risk to Hungarian democracy.


7. (C) Ambassador Foley responded that FIDESZ's
demonstrations had attracted violent elements whatever the
party's intentions. Nemeth flatly maintained that "it was
all the police" and said that FIDESZ will organize another
demonstration November 4 in Pest to mark the entry of Soviet
forces during the 1956 Revolution.

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Every Caricature Tells a Story


8. (C) Comment: FIDESZ's opposition to the Gyurcsany
government is emotionally deep but often substantively
shallow. Even Nemeth, who the party often uses in its
contacts with the international community, is often more
visceral than intellectual in his views. As with many in the
opposition, he is quick to reduce the present situation to a
caricature of "communist oligarchs" who "learned at Kadar's
knee," while seemingly blind to FIDESZ's own mix of populism
and paternalism. Though flexible in their tactics, moving
rapidly from their initial call for a "government of experts"
to their present insistence that "the majority must change
its mind," they have been constant in their goal: Gyurcsany's
removal. Indeed, the party seems to believe that the
opposition's role is simply to oppose rather than to offer
constructive alternatives. Although the end result of this
campaign remains to be seen, the immediate result has been to
wrest the initiative from a government that seemingly remains
one accusation behind. End Comment.
FOLEY