AD REFERENDUM: FIDESZ CHALLENGES THE GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: AD REFERENDUM: FIDESZ CHALLENGES THE GOVERNMENT
THROUGH REFERENDA

REF: BUDAPEST 2111 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: With its call for a public referendum on
seven questions revolving around the Gyurcsany government's
reform package, FIDESZ has opened another front in its
campaign against the Prime Minister. Consistent with Viktor
Orban's recent statements emphasizing that "democracy - not
the parliament - is the most important part of a
parliamentary democracy," the referendum will take key
elements of the government's austerity plan, including
education, health care, and pensions, directly to the public
and keep the government on the defensive. Although many
observers have dismissed the referendum as politically
motivated and legally suspect, it will appeal to many
frustrated with the government's austerity measures and the
country's underlying constitutional structure. End Summary.


2. (U) At the party's October 23 rally commemorating the
events of 1956, FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban proposed a
national referendum on seven questions pertaining to key
elements of the Gyurcsany government's reform package
including:

The payment of tuition for higher education;
The privatization of hospitals;
The payment of fees for doctors visits;
The continuation of pharmacies' monopoly on sales of medicine;
The receipt of pensions by those still employed;
The purchase of arable land by farmers;
The imposition of "objective legal responsibility" for the
Prime Minister and other members of the cabinet for exceeding
the national budget.


3. (C) FIDESZ's proposed referenda were met with strong
criticism from some in the legal community. Dismissing the
proposed questions as "entirely political" and containing
"mistakes not even a first-year law student should make"
given legal restrictions on subjecting issues including
international commitments, the budget, and taxes to
referenda, constitutional scholar Gyorgy Kollath predicted
that several would not withstand the scrutiny of the National
Electoral Commission. The NEC's review is expected by
November 24, but their decision can be referred to the
Constitutional Court for priority review. Current
indications are that the MSZP is prepared to take this step
if necessary, and could argue that the austerity measures are
required by Hungary's obligations to the EU. Ultimately,
Kollath predicted, at least some of the questions will
survive and will almost certainly receive the 200,000
signatures required to go to a public vote, "probably in the
spring" and "probably at the cost of several million more
forint Hungary can ill afford."


4. (C) Kollath also believes that FIDESZ's move will cheapen
the currency of referenda, which have traditionally been
reserved for existential issues such as NATO accession and
the rights of ethnic Hungarians abroad. (Note: Only five
referenda have been held since 1989, with turn-out declining
from a peak of 58% to 37%. End Note.) Should the referendum
receive a simple majority with the required 50% turnout, the
pertinent laws would be returned to the government for
revision. Kollath, for one, believes "a smart lawyer" will
be able to "rewrite the law" as necessary and still move
forward on reform, but at the political cost of being seen as
ignoring "the will of the people."


5. (C) FIDESZ MP Tamas Gabor Nagy is quite candid in
characterizing the referendum as another tactic to keep
stirring the pot, particularly as colder weather dampens
enthusiasm for public protests. In a meeting October 31, he
reiterated the party line that "the majority must change its
mind" and remove Gyurcsany. Otherwise, he continued, FIDESZ
would continue its efforts to ensure that the MSZP will bear
the brunt of popular dissatisfaction in the next elections.
"What we want," he concluded, "is a low-grade fever that will
be painful but not fatal" for the government. He believes
Gyurcsany will have to work harder and harder to maintain
party discipline under this pressure, but that his tactics
will further alienate the MSZP rank-and-file.


6. (C) Even among those who oppose the referendum as another
political maneuver by the opposition, there is frustration
with the present state of affairs. As Parliamentary Speaker
Katalin Szili noted to the Ambassador, Hungary has not yet
fully absorbed the "shocks" of 16 years ago and is now
suffering "cumulative punishment for cumulative negligence"
after more than a decade of avoiding structural reforms. She
suggested that President Solyom (a political rival who beat

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her out for the job) has not managed to play a unifying role,
leaving Hungary increasingly regarded as "whipped cream with
a very sour cherry on top." Szili indicated her intention to
move forward with proposals designed to encourage the
opposition's active participation in government, suggesting
the formation of undefined "Commissions of Inquiry" to
examine key issues.


7. (C) The Speaker's comments were echoed by Gyorgy
Habsburg, who has worked as a Roving Ambassador for European
Integration Issues under successive Prime Ministers (and is
the grandson of the last Austro-Hungarian emperor),in a
question-and-answer session with Andrassy University students
October 30. Expressing his confidence in Hungary's ability
to "weather the current storm," he nonetheless denounced the
tendency of MPs to "represent their parties and not their
people." It is a short step, he suggested, from popular
disatisfaction with individual politicians to popular
disaffection with politics overall.


8. (C) Comment: Even thought current polling indicates that
majority opposes the referendum and recognizes the need for
reform, FIDESZ's latest call will strike a chord with many
who feel that the government's austerity measures are the
unwelcome result of an opaque process. There is a growing
realization across the political spectrum that the current
constitution is, in the words of one scholar, "an old car
that is still running." Still running, perhaps, but running
desperately low on goodwill. With the two-thirds majority
required to amend the constitution widely viewed as
impossible given the current gridlock, the government
continues to play by the old rules, using its parliamentary
majority to advance its agenda. Although the present system
does allow the opposition to propose laws and to amend
legislation, FIDESZ may increasingly ignore these avenues in
order to wage its campaign everywhere but parliament. End
Comment.
FOLEY