HUNGARIAN CONFIDENCE VOTE: GYURCSANY'S MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002045

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN CONFIDENCE VOTE: GYURCSANY'S MAJORITY
HOLDS

REF: BUDAPEST 2027 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POL/C Eric V. Gaudiosi; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Hungarian parliament affirmed its
confidence in Prime Minister Gyurcsany by a 207 - 165 margin
following short and often sharp debate in an extraordinary
session October 6. Speakers from the governing coalition
including the PM emphasized their willingness to confront a
legacy of political and irresponsibility, affirming their
intention to undertake critical reforms. They also focused
attention on the underlying issue: the opposition's
willingness to "blackmail" Hungary for its own political
ends. Markets responded positively to the confidence vote.
FIDESZ has responded by calling for daily peaceful
demonstrations against the government in front of Parliament.
End Summary.

Gyurcsany: An Apology and a Challenge


2. (U) Opening the session with a nearly 40-minute speech, a
composed Prime Minister framed the choice now before Hungary
as one between peace and chaos. He issued an apology for the
wording of his comments on the "Gyurcsany tape" but not for
his words. After "sixteen years" of "lying to ourselves that
our problems would solve themselves," he expressed pride in
his government's commitment to finally confront "a system of
self-delusion." Hungary can no longer delay its day of
reckoning, and the government's responsibility is to help the
nation bear "the price of freedom."


3. (U) The Prime Minister acknowledged "too much confidence
and too much speed" in pursuing reforms, pledging to move
forward in keeping with "the nation's stamina." Referring to
recent reports re a FIDESZ austerity package, Gyurcsany
asserted that the governing coalition "is the only party with
a realistic plan."


3. (U) Gyurcsany also expressed his regret that his comments
had provided the opposition with the pretext to pursue its
"desire for power." Confronting FIDESZ leader Orban openly,
he noted that "democracy must defend itself" from challenges
to the constitution and called on the parliament to reject
the ultimata of "the vocal minority." "Street action is not
order," he concluded, "and Parliament must not surrender."
Concluding to loud applause from coalition MPs, Gyurcsany
emphasized that the nation needs "peace and tranquillity," he
concluded, and for that the government must have strong
mandate.


4. (U) MSZP parliamentary faction leader Ildiko Lendvai
continued the coalition's counterattack. Casting the debate
as a question of "progress versus fear," she derided FIDESZ's
claims to stand for law and order as well as reform. "FIDESZ
is telling the nation it will put away its nationalist
banners if we surrender and give them what they want," she
commented, "and then they'll go back to drawing up lists of
Jewish politicians." "Orban," she continued, "cannot bring
people back from the streets because he is too far gone
himself." The government's role and its responsibility, she
reiterated, is "to listen and to lead" Hungary into the
future.

FIDESZ Response


5. (U) Speaking for FIDESZ, parliamentary faction leader
Tibor Navracsics stood in the aisle and asked if the
coalition had "nothing save fear-mongering and attacks on
Viktor Orban?" He reiterated the party's claim that
Gyurcsany had won the April elections "on false pretenses and
false information," arguing that Gyurcsany had "not confessed
but been caught" in a "spiral of lies." Quoting an adage
from Hungary's transition from Communism to reiterate the
party's call for Gyurcsany's resignation, he warned that "a
communist dog will never give democratic bacon."

Coalition Partners Line Up: Left, Right, and Center


6. (U) Following Navracsics' comments, SZDSZ leader Gabor
Kuncze took the podium and commented "we've had 80 minutes of
debate and I've yet to hear a constructive plan from FIDESZ."
The issue before parliament, he charged, is whether Hungary
will be ruled by parliamentary democracy or by those in the
street who believe "FIDESZ's mountain of lies." "I don't
want to blame Viktor Orban," Kuncze continued, "but I have no
reason to praise him." If Orban wishes to lead the street,
Kuncze challenged, "he should resign from parliament."


7. (U) Kuncze's comments were followed by remarks by Zsolt
Semjen of the KDNP (FIDESZ's junior coalition partner).

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Semjen charged that Gyurcsany's "socialist millionaires"
would continue to plunder Hungary through the privatization
process, but his remarks did little to take the momentum away
from the governing coalition. His assertion that "Viktor
Orban does not want power," for example, was met by loud
laughter from the floor and the gallery.


8. (U) MDF Leader Ibolya David concluded the parties' formal
remarks. Noting October 6 as day of mourning for the heroes
of the 1848 Revolution, she commented that "today we hang our
heads in sorrow and in shame" at the current state of
affairs. She called on all parties to work together in
Parliament to "stop waging war on the future" because
"disunity is a luxury we cannot afford." She announced her
party's intention to vote against the Prime Minister for
having "lost credibility by misleading the Hungarian people"
but underscored her commitment to reform and her rejection of
extra-constitutional tactics.

The Winner Is ...


9. (U) After brief remarks by individual members, the
Parliament voted by open voice call. The announcement of the
government's 207 - 165 victory was met with prolonged
applause by the coalition.


10. (U) The results of the vote largely confirmed market
expectations, with a rapid strengthening of the forint and
flash analysis from multiple rating agencies suggesting
deepening confidence in the government. Major financial
community analysts have suggested this week that they are
most interested in seeing concrete implementation of
government reforms, but welcome the positive confidence vote
as confirmation of movement in that direction.


11. (C) Comment: The coalition succeeded not only in holding
firm but also in taking the offensive. In their strong and
coordinated comments, Gyurcsany, Lendvai, and Kuncze clearly
sought to focus the debate on the future rather than the
past. Moreover, they effectively highlighted the critical
distinction between the government and the opposition: the
willingness to pursue their goals through the system rather
than the streets. As Gyurcsany noted, "Gyurcsany or Orban is
not the question, it is the consequence" of these broader and
deeper questions.


12. (U) Comment Continued: Although Orban did not speak
during the debate, he did address a large crowd in front of
parliament following the vote. Although crowds variously
estimated between 50,000 and 300,000 were expected, embassy
personnel on the scene report that Orban asked those present
to return every night between 5:00 and 6:00 to peacefully
protest against the Gyurscany government. End Comment.


FOLEY