DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE; DISTINCTIONS EMERGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001913

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU
SUBJECT: DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE; DISTINCTIONS EMERGE

REF: BUDAPEST 1902 AND PREVIOUS


Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) Crowds estimated at 10,000 - 15,000 gathered at
Parliament on the evening of September 20, but the
authorities report fewer and less severe violent incidents
overnight. Residents are adjusting to the evening
demonstrations against the Gyurcsany government and accept
the peaceful expressions of opposition. Many, however, are
drawing a clear distinction between the expression of free
speech and the commission of criminal acts.


2. (U) Commenting on the "moral crisis" in a balanced
statement issued September 21, the Permanent Council of the
Hungarian Catholic Bishops' Conference called on those
"responsible for our country" to act "according to truth and
justice." The Bishops "definitely denounced illegal rioting
whatever its motivation" and emphasized the importance of
respecting "the rights of free speech and peaceful assembly."


3. (SBU) Several groups have postponed previously scheduled
events to prevent their causes from being hijacked by
criminal elements. The public transit advocacy group "Mass
Appeal" cancelled a planned event on September 20, and local
students groups have called off a demonstration against the
government's tuition policy in order to distinguish their
cause from the violence.


4. (C) In a brief statement issued September 21, FIDESZ
announced the postponement of its September 23 rally "until
after the local elections." The party continues to call for
the Gyurcsany government to step down and negotiate a
"government of experts" with the opposition. (Comment:
Specifically cited by PM Gyurcsany in his September 20
meeting with Ambassadors (reftel),the FIDESZ rally had the
potential to serve as a magnet for further violence. As
Orban himself stated, "it is easier to get people out in the
streets than to get them back home." Plans for the rally had
reportedly proceeded at Orban's insistence despite the
opposition of the majority of the party leadership. The
event's cancellation may reflect the calculation that any
violence at the event would be laid at FIDESZ's door, and the
realization that the extreme fringe of the political right
may be beyond FIDESZ's control. End Comment.)


5. (C) SZDSZ MP Matyas Eorsi told the DCM September 20 that
his party "stands firmly 100% behind PM Gyurcsany" and the
governing coalition. He described police unpreparedness on
the first night as a reflection both of having "too many
party insiders and not enough professionals in senior
positions, and of a system with "too few decision-makers."
He believes that FIDESZ's efforts to cast the upcoming local
elections as a referendum on the government will mobilize
MSZP and SZDSZ voters who might otherwise have stayed home,
and predicts that FIDESZ will do well in the countryside - as
expected - but still be "disappointed" by the results. Eorsi
believes the public will be put off by what appears to have
been premeditated violence, and thinks the people will remain
"scared" of Orban.


6. (U) In a press conference September 21, Budapest Mayor
Gabor Demsky (SZDSZ) commented that the police had confined
the "hooligans" to "smaller and smaller areas" and noted that
life in Budapest is "returning to normal." He described the
"Gyurcsany tape" as "oil on the fire ... which Orban lit,"
and warned the public that extremists can still win "an
indirect victory" in the local elections if their
intimidation tactics keep the public from the polls.



FOLEY