PM GYURCSANY ON CONTINUING PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001902

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: PM GYURCSANY ON CONTINUING PROTESTS

REF: BUDAPEST 1886

Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: Anti-government demonstrations continued in
Budapest and elsewhere in Hungary September 19 - 20, with
crowds estimated in excess of 10,000 gathering around
parliament and isolated incidents of violence - driven by
small numbers of vandals - occuring at sites including MSZP
party headquarters. Addressing the diplomatic community
September 20, a composed PM Gyurcsany reaffirmed his
commitment to reform, identified a small minority as
responsible for the violence, underscored his belief that the
governing coalition will do well in the upcoming elections,
and expressed confidence that the authorities will bring the
situation under control before the 50th anniversary
celebrations. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) Demonstrations against the Gyurcsany government
continued September 19 - 20, with a small group outside
Parliament growing to an estimated 10,000 - 20,000 in the
evening. Isolated violence was reported at sites including
MSZP party headquarters, where a crowd of several hundred
clashed with police, but the authorities appear to have been
both better prepared and more proactive than the night
before. 50 - 60 demonstrators and 20 police officers were
reported injured.


3. (SBU) Although the opposition continues to call for
Gyurcsany's resignation, all five major parties did agree to
a virtually unanimous parliamentary statement condemning the
violence September 19, although FIDESZ continues to refer to
the upcoming local elections as a referendum "between honesty
and lies." President Solyom has joined with PM Gyurcsany and
Parliament Speaker Szili in characterizing the violence as
"criminal."


4. (SBU) To date, the demonstrations have grown dramatically
from small vigils in the daylight to larger, diverse, and
generally orderly gatherings in the early evening. The
crowds have changed drastically in the late evening, however,
as families leave and skinheads and soccer hooligans arrive -
with ample alcohol on (and in) them.


5. (C) In a somber but confident address to resident
ambassadors September 20, PM Gyurcsany emphasized his
commitment to continuing fundamental reforms, identified a
small number of individuals as the driving force behind the
violence, and expressed confidence that the government would
do well in the local elections October 1 and restore
Hungary's "normal face" before the 50th anniversary
celebrations October 23.


6. (C) Placing the comments on the "Gyurcsany tape" in
context, the PM referred to the "deep political schism" that
had tempted all parties with the "urge of social
irresponsibility" and placed victory above morality. He
stated that his "dramatic monologue" to an MSZP party meeting
soon after its victory in the April elections had been
intended to underscore the necessity of using the
government's electoral mandate to move beyond the
"unsustainable" and "irresponsible" policies of the past. He
believes his remarks unified the governing coalition, and
underscored his "firm intention" to carry on with both the
convergence plan and with broader institutional reforms. He
has no intention of "abdicating," and believes the MSZP is
united behind him "without secrets or factions." (Comment:
Based on our contacts with others in the party, the latter
claim may be more a statement of aspiration than of fact.
End Comment) Turning to the local elections, Gyurcsany
predicted a strong showing by the coalition in Budapest and
in urban areas throughout the country, but made clear that he
will move forward "even if there is a landslide against me,"
reaching out to "local officials regardless of party" but
without compromising on the government's composition or its
policies. He cited Debrecen Mayor Lajos Kosa, with whom
Ambassador Foley met September 19, for his public pledge to
"protect the MSZP headquarters with my own body if
necessary," as an example of an opposition figure with whom
the government could work constructively.


7. (C) The Prime Minister acknowledged conjecture regarding
FIDESZ's role in the release of the tape but is focused on
solving problems rather than pursuing "the unknowable."
Doing so will require political will and police work. He
credited the police with standing up to "very substantial
street conflicts," driven by a hard core of "50 - 300 soccer
hooligans, paid enforcers, and riot activists" who had "no
political objective." He made clear that he has no interest
in seeing the present atmosphere continue. He believes this
will require "a matter of weeks," admitting the damage done

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to his own credibility and expressing regret regarding the
damage the violence had done to Hungary's image.


8. (C) Responding to questions, Gyurcsany referred to
September 23 FIDESZ rally as an initiative the majority of
the party opposed but on which Orban himself had insisted.
Citing ongoing contacts with the opposition, he reiterated
his willingness to talk to "those interested in restoring
order." He also warned of the "overlap of the mainstream and
the extreme right" in Hungary and elsewhere in the region,
commenting that "the moderates do not pacify the extremists;
the extremists infect the moderates." He believes the
situation will return to normal before the 50th anniversary
celebrations, commenting that "not even I would accuse the
opposition" of "soiling the memory of the revolution" with
"violence in the streets." He also conveyed his apologies
for the defacement of the Soviet WW II memorial in Szabadsag
Ter, emphasizing Hungary's respect for the "pride of all
nations."


9. (C) Asked about next steps regarding the convergence
plan, Gyurcsany explained that he had resolved not to wait
until after the local elections to move forward because "it
is better to swallow a bitter pill immediately - especially
if you are sick." The budget deficit is "unacceptable in
every respect," and "past practice - not our policy" was
"unnatural." After "16 years without a single reform,"
Hungary must address its problems through short-term
adjustments and long-term reforms. The people must realize
that "freedom comes with responsibility, and that the
government will no longer "shield the people from competition
and reform" but will exorcise the "ghosts of Kadarism."


10. (C) In conclusion, Gyurcsany appealed to the diplomatic
community to "help my government and help me personally" by
putting his comments in context. He also asked that
embassies inform their governments that his government will
do everything in its power to return to "normal life." They
are exerting a "strong effort" to "control the situation" and
will restore Hungary's "traditional face" before the 50th
anniversary. He encouraged the diplomatic community to come
to the government "anytime" with questions and concerns.


11. (C) Comment: Thoughtful but resolute, Gyurcsany was very
much in command of the facts and of the situation. His
comments to the diplomatic community reflect a leader who has
considered the political, economic, and moral aspects of the
issue ... and emerged convinced that his course of action is
both right and worth defending. End Comment.


FOLEY