HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: MDF STAYIN' ALIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001018

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: MDF STAYIN' ALIVE
(C-RE6-00145)

REF: STATE 22644

Classified By: Political Officer Carleton Bulkin for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

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Summary
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1. (U) MDF's unexpected return to Parliament demonstrated
that the right wing is too diverse to be represented by a
monolithic party. MDF views itself as a "constructive"
opposition party and sees its electoral success as a chance
to breathe new life into the ranks. The party has said
repeatedly that it will cooperate with other parties on an
issue-by issue basis, especially in regard to anti-corruption
efforts, a flat tax and government reform, but it is unlikely
that the disparate elements of the right will coalesce.

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The Vision
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2. (C) Newly-minted MDF MP Kornel Almassy told Embassy on May
3 that MDF views itself as the "normal" and "constructive"
opposition party. As such, Almassy said, the party plans to
cooperate with the governing coalition in certain areas. MDF
MP Andras Csaky echoed these sentiments to Embassy on May 4.
Even though Csaky ruled out any chance of "institutional"
cooperation with FIDESZ, he did say that MDF would cooperate
with FIDESZ on an "issue-by-issue" basis. Csaky also
observed that the elections prove that a single "right wing"
party cannot win by itself. If conservatives wish to win
elections, they will have to do so through cooperation, not
domination, he said.

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Parliamentary Priorities
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3. (C) Almassy explained to Embassy that MDF would work with
the governing coalition on government reforms such as
reducing the number of ministries and parliamentary
committees. (Note: Every party is entitled to at least one
seat on each committee. However, MDF only has eleven MPs, so
individual MDF MPs have nothing to lose if the number of
committees is reduced. MDF's first priority in the new
Parliament would be to stamp out corruption. To that end,
MDF plans to amend the public procurement laws and so reduce
the potential for abuse. According to Almassy, MDF would
also work to pass a flat tax, and he specifically mentioned
cooperating with SZDSZ on this issue, even if they disagreed
on the ideal rate. Lesser issues for MDF that were not
focused on during the campaign, include privatizing health
care and amending immigration and citizenship laws to benefit
ethnic Hungarians abroad. Almassy pointed out that even if
MDF supports the coalition on reforms, MDF's votes would
still not be enough to create the two-thirds "super majority"
necessary to pass certain constitutional and procedural
reforms (highlighting PM Gyurcsany's need to garner support
from a broad cross-section of the right).

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Long-Term Strategy
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4. (C) Csaky and Almassy agreed that there would be no
changes in party leadership. Specifically, they said that
Herenyi would continue as caucus leader while David would
remain as party chair and a vice speaker in Parliament.
(Note: Traditionally, each party is entitled to one
vice-speaker position. FIDESZ is rumbling about reducing the
number of vice-speaker slots, which is clearly an attempt to
block David from the position as punishment for her lack of
campaign cooperation with FIDESZ. However, MDF appears
confident in the electorate's clear preference for a
selection of conservative parties, and Csaky told Embassy
that the party desires to establish a broader power base by
increasing its representation in local governments.

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Comment
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5. (C) MDF resentment at FIDESZ's attempts to smother it, and
Orban's vendetta against MDF Chair Ibolya David virtually
guarantee that there will be no combining of the right.
Csaky's observations seem to be supported by the fortunes of
the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) which ran on a
joint ticket with FIDESZ. While the MDF's primary focus is

the middle class, many believe KDNP represents religious
conservatives. The potential presence of three conservative
parties suggests that conservatives are more heterogeneous
than FIDESZ believes. Now that the initial existential
crisis has passed, MDF leaders appear to be breathing more
easily. As such, they are able to speak of long-term plans.
While the party may never dominate the right, its prospects
for continued existence are better than they were in the last
election cycle. What role MDF will play in terms of the
unfolding multi-party dynamics of the right remains to be
seen.


6. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm.
WALKER