Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUDAPEST1009
2006-05-15 12:32:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

HUNGARY'S PARLIAMENT: STRUCTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4847
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHUP #1009/01 1351232
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151232Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9230
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001009 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S PARLIAMENT: STRUCTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC
FACTS TO KNOW (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644


B. BUDAPEST 00138

-------
Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001009

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S PARLIAMENT: STRUCTURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC
FACTS TO KNOW (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644


B. BUDAPEST 00138

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) Some three weeks since the second round of Hungary's
national elections, Parliament convenes its first plenary
session of the term on May 16. President Solyom has invited
MSZP and SZDSZ to form the next government, while opposition
FIDESZ and MDF remain divided. This session will likely
see some realignment of forces among the opposition, as the
Christian Democrats form a separate faction (caucus) and MDF
stakes out its own place on the right apart from FIDESZ.
This Parliament is characterized by more incumbents, older
MPs, a slight increase in the number of women, and the
erosion of support for FIDESZ since 2002 in party strongholds.

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Parliament Structure
--------------


2. (U) In the April parliamentary elections, voters delivered
mandates to four parties: the Hungarian Socialist Party or
MSZP (186),the Alliance of Young Democrats and Christian
Democratic People's Party or FIDESZ-KDNP (164),the Hungarian
Democratic Forum or MDF (11),and the Alliance of Free
Democrats or SZDSZ (18). One independent and six joint
MSZP-SZDSZ candidates also won seats. Press reports and
recent Embassy meetings with party officials confirm that 23
KDNP members plan to break away from FIDESZ to form an
independent faction.


3. (U) The Constitution, as amended in 1989, defines Hungary
as a unicameral, parliamentary republic. The Parliament
consists of 386 members. Members of the Parliament (MPs) are
elected for four years, and are to be convened by the
President of the Republic within one month after the
elections.


4. (U) Officers of the Parliament include the Speaker of the
Parliament, whose main tasks include convening parliamentary
sessions and directing the work of Parliament; and five
Deputy Speakers, charged with chairing the plenary sessions
and substituting for the Speaker in her absence. Recently,
FIDESZ has sought to prevent MDF from winning a vice-speaker
slot by calling for an overall reduction in the number of
vice speakers. The vice speakers and party-faction (caucus)

leaders make up the House Committee of the Parliament, which
guides the parliamentary agenda. To date, three parties have
indicated their choices for faction leader: MSZP (Ildiko
Lendvai),SZDSZ (Gabor Kuncze) and MDF (Karoly Herenyi).
Twenty-five standing committees and temporary committees
assist the work of the Parliament, though the coalition
government has vowed to decrease this number to as few as
fifteen. However, the parties have not yet reached agreement
on the number of committees. Resolving that issue will
likely delay the date of the legislature's second plenary
session until the end of May.

--------------
Party Background
--------------


5. (U) MSZP was constituted from the Hungarian Socialist
Worker's Party, Hungary's former communist party. Scoring a
mere 8.5 percent in the 1990 elections, MSZP received an
overwhelming majority four years later, when it became a
governing party for the first time. After four years in
opposition from 1998 to 2002, MSZP then returned to power,
forming a coalition with the liberal SZDSZ party. Peter
Medgyessy, the party's PM candidate in 2002, was not a party
member, In September 2004, Medgyessy lost his position and
Ferenc Gyurcsany emerged as the new PM over the objections of
the party's "old wing." Having now won reelection, MSZP is
the first party in the history of democratic Hungary to win
two consecutive general elections. Although the race was a
tight one, the party's victory may signal that it has largely
shed its negative communist stigma.


6. (U) SZDSZ is a small, liberal party that grew out of an
opposition organization created in the late 1980s. In the
1990 and 1994 elections, SZDSZ finished second. Between 1994
and 1998, it was the junior governing party in a coalition
with MSZP. With its popularity declining substantially,
SZDSZ's representation in Parliament dwindled to just 24 MPs
following the 1998 electoral loss to FIDESZ. In 2002, as in
2006, SZDSZ narrowly surpassed the 5 percent threshold
required to obtain seats in Parliament. Traditionally,

BUDAPEST 00001009 002 OF 002


SZDSZ's support base is urban and centered in Budapest.


7. (U) MDF, currently the junior opposition party, led
Hungary's first democratically-elected administration between
1990 and 1994. Its conservative foundations date to the time
of the system change, although its popularity has declined
considerably since the mid 1990s. As FIDESZ stepped to the
forefront of the right wing, MDF has struggled to reach the
five-percent mark in recent elections. Between 1998 and
2002, it governed in coalition with FIDESZ. After a bitter
campaign in 2006, in which it vied openly with its former
ally FIDESZ for votes, the MDF sees its return to Parliament
as a major victory, and has announced plans to reform the
party and establish a "truly" conservative entity with a
broad support base on the right.


8. (U) FIDESZ, created in the late 1980s as an opposition
party, is today essentially a populist party, although it
styles itself a conservative one. Initially a catalyst for
the system change, FIDESZ gradually shifted from the liberal
side of the spectrum to the conservative in the mid-1990s,
embracing the causes of ethnic Hungarians and the traditional
churches. Between 1998 and 2002, FIDESZ was the senior
governing party. The party leadership has promised to "keep
fighting" to uphold the interests of Hungarian conservatives
though the 2006 defeat is the second for the party in as many
elections.

--------------
Demographic Changes
--------------


9. (U) More incumbents won in the 2006 elections than in
previous contests, with 267 MPs returning to Parliament.
Moreover, according to Hungarian Election Commission
statistics, the new Parliament is older than the previous
one: more than half of MPs are over 50 years of age, 25
between the age of 60 and 70, and ten over 70 years old
(including two over 80). The largest group is of 163 MPs who
are between 50 and 60 years old. Only 60 MPs are under 40
years old, with the youngest being MSZP's Laszlo Nagy, at 23
years of age.


10. (U) There are three more women in the new Parliament,
bringing the total to 39, up from 36. Twenty-four are from
the MSZP, two are SZDSZ, twelve are from FIDESZ and one
(party president Ibolya David) represents the MDF.


11. (U) Sixty-seven MPs in the new parliament are mayors as
well, many of whom will stand for re-election in the local
elections in November.

--------------
Geographic Shifts
--------------


12. (U) In a remarkable advance over their 78 individual wins
in 2002, the socialist MSZP party won 98 individual
constituencies, in addition to six joint constituencies with
the SZDSZ. As in the 2002 contest, the MSZP-SZDSZ coalition
won 28 out of 32 constituencies in Budapest. Also as in
2002, FIDESZ won four traditionally conservative districts in
Buda. (Note: The 186 figure for MSZP in paragraph two
includes individual-constituency seats, county party-list and
national party-list seats. The total number of a party's
seats in Parliament is determined by wins in individual
constituenciess and seat distributions from party lists; for
details, please see reftel B.)


13. (U) The MSZP performed better in rural areas than four
years ago. While the FIDESZ dominance in Hungary's western
counties continued, the MSZP knocked out FIDESZ candidates in
northeastern Hungary's Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County. In a
significant shift, FIDESZ only managed to win three of that
county's ten districts, down from eight in 2002. In
Hajdu-Bihar County, another FIDESZ stronghold, the MSZP won
three of the nine constituencies, where they had won none in

2002. The coalition also dominated Bekes County in the
southeastern corner of Hungary, where the four-to-three
FIDESZ win in 2002 was followed by a five-to-two victory for
MSZP in 2006.


14. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm
WALKER