Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUCHAREST1811
2006-12-04 15:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

CONSERVATIVE PARTY WITHDRAWS FROM GOVERNING

Tags:  PREL PGOV RO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5602
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBM #1811/01 3381556
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041556Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5672
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001811 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY WITHDRAWS FROM GOVERNING
COALITION

REF: BUCHAREST 1810

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001811

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY WITHDRAWS FROM GOVERNING
COALITION

REF: BUCHAREST 1810


1. (SBU) Summary. Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu's
government no longer holds a legislative majority following
the Conservative Party's December 3 decision to leave the
governing coalition. The resulting minority government could
be ousted by a motion of no-confidence, but unless the
opposition Social Democrats see a benefit to early elections
or the Democrats withdraw from the government, Tariceanu is
unlikely to step down as prime minister. The possibility of a
reformed alliance between PD and the PNL dissidents remains
the largest looming threat to Tariceanu's continued
premiership. End summary.


2. (SBU) The Conservative Party (PC),a junior partner of the
governing coalition, decided on December 3 to withdraw from
the coalition government. PC President Dan Voiculescu accused
his coalition partners of routinely opposing his party's
legislative initiatives. The PC had considered exiting the
government last June for the same reasons, but chose to
remain, it said, in order to ensure Romania,s prospects for
joining the EU on January 1, 2007 were not jeopardized. The
PC, however, conditioned its support for the government on
the coalition's support for a number of legislative
initiatives, including on reducing the VAT for food stuffs
from 19 percent to 9 percent and on zero taxation for
commercial profits used for re-investment. The coalition
partners' general response at that time was that they would
not be "blackmailed" by a minor member of the coalition.


3. (SBU) In its December 3 resolution, the PC claimed
fulfillment of its mission contributing to a stable
government that would get Romania into the EU on January 1,

2007. Party leaders also accused President Traian Basescu and
the Democratic Party (PD) of generating a &serious political
crisis8 by attempting to change the configuration of the
government. PC ministers, state secretaries, and other
officials were ordered to resign. The PC thus lost the
positions of deputy prime minister, the important portfolio
of minister of economy and trade, and six deputy minister
positions. The PC legislators - 19 deputies (6 percent of

deputies) and 11 senators (8 percent of senators) will switch
to the opposition. However, some PC representatives are
expected to defect to other parties after publicly announcing
their opposition to the party,s decision to leave the
government. The Chief of the National Agency for Small and
Medium Enterprises, for example, announced on December 3 that
he was resigning from the party in order to retain his
position in the government.


4. (SBU) The PC,s exit from the governing coalition not only
formalizes the government,s minority status, but also
compounds the government,s increasingly precarious margin of
political support since the Stoica-Stolojan-Musca group of
PNL "platformist" legislators announced their opposition to
party leader and PM Calin Popescu-Tariceanu. The PC's exit
means that in the Chamber of Deputies, the three remaining
parties of the governing coalition -- the National Liberal
Party (PNL),the Democratic Party (PD) and the party of the
Hungarian minority (UDMR) -- can rely only on 140 votes, as
compared with 156 votes held the opposition parties -- the
Social-Democratic Party (PSD),the Greater Romania Party
(PRM) and now the PC. In the Senate, the ratio between the
government and the opposition is 60 to 72. Interestingly, on
December 4, the Democrats and Liberals felt it necessary to
announce that neither party has plans to leave the coalition.
The Democrats also announced the start of discussions with
the PNL dissidents to ensure they remain within the PNL-PD
alliance.


5. (C) It remains unclear how long the now-minority Tariceanu
government can continue to keep its head above the political
waters. Clearly, President Basescu and many members of the
PD would like to see the Prime Minister fall, and replace him
with an interim Prime Minister like Stolojan who would be a
much more comfortable political partner. At a minimum, the
government will now have to rely on a boost from the
opposition side of the aisle to pass legislation. While the
Social Democrats could topple the government in a
no-confidence motion, they are unlikely to do so while they
are reorganizing internally. A new election in the near term
would jeopardize as much as a third of Social Democratic
electoral support compared with the PSD's 2004 results. As
long as the Social Democrats remain uninterested in early
elections, a minority government, no matter how weak, could
theoretically be sustained. The conventional wisdom is that
most parties and legislators would lose seats in an early
parliamentary election.


6. (C) Comment. The first test of the minority government

BUCHAREST 00001811 002 OF 002


will be the upcoming vote on the budget. The PSD has already
announced it will vote against it, but neither PC nor the
liberal dissidents are willing for now to take this
opportunity to push the PM and his government to the edge of
the precipice. But Basescu appears to be holding the end of
the carpet on which Tariceanu is standing, and he can yank it
a little at a time, or all at once when his patience runs
out. As tensions between the two parties and between the PM
and the President mount, the PD might in the end opt to
itself withdraw from the coalition, forcing the PM to resign.
End comment.
TAPLIN