Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUCHAREST1810
2006-12-04 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

ROMANIAN PM TARICEANU UNDER FIRE AS PNL REVOLT

Tags:  PGOV PREL SOCI KCOR RO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5537
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBM #1810/01 3381517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 041517Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5669
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001810 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KCOR RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIAN PM TARICEANU UNDER FIRE AS PNL REVOLT
GAINS MOMENTUM

REF: A. BUCHAREST 1646


B. BUCHAREST 1237

C. BUCHAREST 1202

Classified By: CDA Mark A. Taplin for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001810

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KCOR RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIAN PM TARICEANU UNDER FIRE AS PNL REVOLT
GAINS MOMENTUM

REF: A. BUCHAREST 1646


B. BUCHAREST 1237

C. BUCHAREST 1202

Classified By: CDA Mark A. Taplin for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. A significant number of National Liberal
Party (PNL) figures have joined Agriculture Minister Flutur
in support of the rebel Stoica-Stolojan faction, handing
Romanian Prime Minister Tariceanu his biggest Liberal Party
leadership challenge to date. The breakaway faction has
strengthened more quickly than proponents expected, though
party insiders emphasize that they would delay forming a new
party, preferring instead to wrest control of the PNL from
Tariceanu. Even some Tariceanu loyalists acknowledge that
there is a threat the party could continue to drop in the
polls with a politically crippled PM clinging to the bridge
of his sinking ship. Some predict Basescu,s Democratic
Party will withdraw its ministers from the government to
topple the Prime Minister early next year. Under this
scenario, former Prime Minister Stolojan and close Basescu
ally, or some other pro-presidential standard-bearer, could
well return to center stage as a caretaker PM until regular
elections are held in 2008. End Summary.


Battle of the PNL Party Presidents
--------------


2. (C) Internal divisions within the National Liberal Party
(PNL) are threatening to push the government of Prime
Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu to minority status, as
twenty (out of 67) PNL deputies and ten (out of 30) PNL
senators joined Minister of Agriculture Gheorghe Flutur in
announcing their opposition Tariceanu's leadership.
Presidents of seven local PNL branches and six mayors were
also with Flutur. Openly supporting the PNL "reform" agenda
of former party presidents Theodor Stolojan and Valeriu
Stoica, Flutur resigned his party leadership position, but
refused to step down as Agriculture Minister, forcing
Tariceanu instead to demand his resignation. Tariceanu
subsequently met with the dissident liberals on November 21,
but rejected their demands to reinstate their party

memberships and allow for open internal debate of the
alternative party platform. President Basescu accepted
Tariceanu's request for Flutur's resignation, but pointedly
underscored that he hoped Tariceanu (who had repeatedly
accused Basescu of instigating the Stolojan-Stoica revolt)
would take responsibility for the divisions within his own
party.

3. (C) Participants said the meeting between Tariceanu and
the Stolojan-Stoica faction ended in stalemate, with both
sides unready to give ground in what both sides see as a
fight for political survival. Expelled PNL party member
Cristian Boureanu, one of the more promising young Liberals,
told PolOff that Tariceanu would likely be removed as Prime
Minister if the Democratic Party withdraws from the
government after January 1. He said Tariceanu's removal as
Prime Minister would strip him of his primary source of
power--e.g., authority over the budget --enabling Theodor
Stolojan to regain control of the PNL and reinstate the
original PNL-PD alliance. Stolojan would likely serve as a
caretaker Prime Minister until regular parliamentary
elections in 2008.


4. (C) On the other hand, Liberal Senator Paul Pacuraru (who
was a PNL vice president alongside Tariceanu, Mona Musca, and
Gheorghe Flutur in 2002 under then-party president Stolojan)
told PolOff that the internal fight followed historic
divisions between the "old liberals" who would fight on
principle the "growing authoritarian regime" of President
Basescu, and the "not quite genuine" liberals who merged into
the party over the past decade. Pacuraru said there was no
mention of a merger in the PNL-PD alliance protocols he
helped write. Pacuraru argued that the governing program of
the alliance was the Liberal program, because the PD had "no
ideas on governance, "but were puppets of Basescu, a leader
who "thrives only with conflict." Pacuraru said that the
Stolojan-Stoica agenda could not be accepted since it would
dismantle the party from within, as part of Basescu's
"anti-democratic attempt to reduce the power of political
parties."


View From the Presidential Palace: Tariceanu's Days Are
Numbered
--------------
--------------


5. (C) Presidential Counselor Teodor Baconschi told DCM the

BUCHAREST 00001810 002 OF 003


"PM's days are numbered." He noted that early elections
could not be pursued directly since only one party head --
namely PD's Emil Boc -- favors going to the polls before the
2008 scheduled elections. Baconschi said there were two
possible scenarios: either the PM would fall as a result of
the growing split within the PNL, or the PD would withdraw
from the governing coalition. Baconschi confirmed that
former PNL president and Senator Valeriu Stoica was the
guiding hand behind the rebellion in PNL ranks (reftel A).
Baconschi confided, "It won't be much longer," saying that
the PM's denouement would likely take place in the
January-February timeframe.


6. (C) Baconschi recently joined Cotroceni Palace after the
Prime Minister removed him as Deputy Foreign Minister in
September to accommodate an inexperienced Liberal Party
figure. It was, in part, a transparent attempt to reduce
Foreign Minister Ungureanu's hold on the Ministry. After
Baconschi openly spoke of his disappointment in a newspaper
interview, Tariceanu retaliated by blocking Basconschi,s
nomination as Romanian Ambassador to Paris. After a month or
more in the wilderness waiting for the PM to relent,
Baconschi emerged on President Basescu's team with a mandate
to help form a new center-right party that would form the
basis for Basescu's reelection effort. This center-right
"Christian Democratic" party would aim at attracting new
people to Romanian politics and help define a political
program that could complement Basescu's popular support.
Baconschi is working within the elites, including
intellectuals, journalists, and the Orthodox Church, to build
support and content for the new center-right party.
Baconschi was upbeat about his initial soundings, although he
said some in the church were intimidated by efforts to open
up the Securitate files on the clergy, many of whom actively
collaborated with the old regime. According to opinion
polls, the church, along with the army, is one of the two
most trusted Romanian institutions. (Note: While Basescu
could win an electoral contest on populism alone, he could
remain hamstrung by a disparate coalition of self-interested
political "players" and the oligarchic interests behind them.
Several insiders told us last month that Baconschi was
handpicked by Basescu in part because he is a respected
figure in intellectual circles, and is one of the country's
leading scholars on the Romanian Orthodox Church, with
exceptional access within religious circles. End Note.)


7. (C) Baconschi predicted that Foreign Minister Ungureanu
would be next prominent Liberal to defect towards the
Stolojan-Stoica group, probably before the end of the year.
"That would keep up the pressure," he added. (Note: Boureanu
also believed the FM would be the next and only other cabinet
minister to defect, citing disinterest in the remaining
Liberal ministers. However, Pacuraru discounted that
possibility, citing a recent conversation with Ungureanu. )
While campaigning around the country and calling for PNL
branches to choose sides, Stolojan announced there were an
additional twenty PNL parliamentarians negotiating to join
his group. Some observers have also suggested Minister of
Health Eugen Nicolaescu is working to recruit new dissidents
to the Stolojan-Stoica camp. Mona Musca, still one of the
more popular politicians despite a scandal over her past
Securitate affiliations, also publicly rejoined (reftel C)
the Liberal "reform" movement on November 28.


Caveat Emptor
--------------


8. (C) Following Tariceanu's discussions with the
Stolojan-Stoica group, the PNL Executive Committee called for
an Extraordinary Congress in January to determine the party's
future leadership. Pacuraru characterized the current crisis
as a "serious problem for Tariceanu" but claimed the congress
would nevertheless "legitimize" him as the PNL leader.
Boureanu, however, characterized this congress to the press
as Tariceanu's version of a "14th Party Congress" -- the last
Communist Party meeting that unanimously confirmed Ceausescu
as President one month before he was overthrown. Boureanu
told PolOff that Tariceanu has "bought off" local party
branches through his leverage over patronage and the budget
ensuring the support of these Liberal "barons" as long as he
remains Prime Minister. Pacuraru asserted the "old Liberals"
would break from the Stolojan platform should it be accepted
because they were the "true promoters of democracy in
Romania."


PSD Fears Basescu, Prefers Status Quo
-------------- --------------


BUCHAREST 00001810 003 OF 003



9. (C) Deputy Viorel Hrebenciuc, leader of PSD's
Parliamentary Group and arguably the most influential
behind-the-scenes figure among the Social Democrats, told
PolOff that PSD did not want to see Tariceanu removed as
Prime Minister and would not support a no-confidence vote.
He said the PSD was negotiating with both PNL and PD to
ensure early elections would not be held. Hrebenciuc said
the PSD's preferred outcome in the event Tariceanu loses his
grip would be an agreement with the PD to create a large
governing coalition that could agree on economic development
issues for the country's post EU accession. PSD President
Mircea Geoana later publicly warned that there would be a
governmental crisis due to the splintering of the PNL and the
"disappearance of the orange alliance." He forecasted,
"Basescu will try to impose Stolojan as Premier" and
blustered, "We will not have a little robot remote-controlled
from Cotroceni as a Prime Minister."


10. (C) Comment: For a long time now, Tariceanu has remained
in office in part because of the lack of better alternatives,
as well as by virtue of the patronage opportunities of the
premiership and the strong support of Liberal Party oligarch
and eminence grise Dinu Patriciu. Only the Democrats have
sought early elections since the other parties could lose
seats to the Democrats and to Gigi Becali's new
right-nationalist party, which could possibly enter
parliament with more seats than the Liberals (reftel B). The
Stolojan-Stoica splinter movement within the PNL has gained
traction in recent weeks and could in fact bring down
Tariceanu as PNL leader or by creating an alternative party
that can ally with the Democrats. Basescu, the dominant
figure on the Romanian political scene, would have
considerable gravitational pull under these circumstances,
especially since there is no credible alternative candidate
for president anywhere on the horizon. Yet should the PNL
splinter, the rebels still might fail in delivering a
majority government to a renewed Stolojan-Basescu alliance.
While the ethnic Hungarian UDMR would likely seek to join any
government in power, Tariceanu's followers, allied with the
Conservatives, could join the Social Democrats and Vadim
Tudor's Greater Romania Party in opposition, setting up the
possibility of a minority government until the 2008
parliamentary elections. End Comment.


TAPLIN