Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUCHAREST1724
2006-11-14 09:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

ROMANIA'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS REGROUP FOR UPCOMING

Tags:  PGOV PREL SOCI RO 
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VZCZCXRO8036
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBM #1724/01 3180920
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 140920Z NOV 06 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5542
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001724 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY//TEXT//

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE JENSEN AND KOSTELANCIK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIA'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS REGROUP FOR UPCOMING
ELECTIONS

REF: BUCHAREST 1646

BUCHAREST 00001724 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POL COUNSELOR TED TANOUE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001724

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY//TEXT//

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE JENSEN AND KOSTELANCIK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIA'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS REGROUP FOR UPCOMING
ELECTIONS

REF: BUCHAREST 1646

BUCHAREST 00001724 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POL COUNSELOR TED TANOUE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: After a two-year slide in the polls while
marked as the "party of corruption," Romania's opposition
party is now consolidating its leadership and preparing for
European parliamentary elections in 2007. Divided and weak
since losing the 2004 elections, the Social Democratic Party
(PSD) is unifying a leadership team under Mircea Geoana that
aims to re-shape the party's image and recapture a place in
Romanian governance. Some PSD parliamentarians said a
possible coalition with the democrats was unlikely before the
May 31 European Parliament elections, but may be the most
likely governing solution afterwards. End Summary.

December Showdown
--------------


2. (C) Two years after losing the presidency and governing
responsibility to the PD-PNL Democratic Alliance and settling
down to as low as 20% popularity in the polls, Romania's
Social Democratic Party (PSD) is attempting a comeback.
Citing disunity as the PSD's main problem, Party
spokesperson and Senator Cristian Diaconescu told poloffs
that reform of the party had been a long ongoing internal
process but the December 10 National Congress would be a
"decisive moment," when the party would elect the "new
leadership to rule the party through 2010." He claimed the
"old leaders were toppled" and there was "no realistic
competitor" to PSD President Mircea Geoana. Diaconescu added
that a new leadership structure was needed since less than
half of the current party leadership was actually involved in
decision-making.

Streamlining the Party Structure
--------------


3. (C) During the Social Democrats, National Council on
November 3, party president Mircea Geoana announced planned
changes to the party's leadership structure. At the
National Congress on December 10, the party would create and
fill a consolidated leadership structure consisting of a
president, general secretary, and eight vice presidents. The

vice presidents would be split between regional
representatives and technocrats. Geoana justified the rush
to make leadership changes on December 10 by pointing to
President Traian Basescu's wish to hold snap elections
concurrently with Romania's elections for the European
Parliament on May 31, 2007. PSD Deputy and Former Finance
Minister Mihai Tanasescu noted to poloffs that the position
of executive president, which former Prime Minister Adrian
Nastase had held until April, would likely be dissolved, and
that neither he nor former president Ion Iliescu would hold
executive positions.

Geoana on Top?
--------------


4. (C) Tanasescu--a Geoana loyalist--claimed that the
internal fighting within the National Council was beginning
to subside and that Geoana now enjoyed the support of about
85% of the party. He said Iliescu was changing his attitude
towards one of support for Geoana. Tanasescu argued this
unity was necessary before the Social Democrats could begin
to effectively counter journalists, bias against PSD, which
he said resulted because "they could not speak out under
Nastase."


5. (C) Ioan Rus, Cluj group, which emerged as the main
internal opposition to Iliescu's group, has thrown its
support behind Geoana. Ioan Rus declared at the National
Council that the Cluj Group would support Geoana's candidacy,
though Rus' support included some criticism directed at
Iliescu, who, in turn, complained Rus' decision sounded
"forced" rather than genuine. PSD Senator Viorel Hrebenciuc,
who is rumored to have long controlled the purse strings of
the PSD, echoed Rus' views, noting that "Geoana is the
leader. Iliescu is finished. Nastase is history."
Hrebenciuc said Iliescu, whom Geoana beat in April 2005, was
still needed though, as he "campaigns well with the
peasants." Hrebenciuc said he told Nastase not to fight
Geoana, but that since Nastase never understood that he was
no longer leader of the party, they pushed Nastase out in
April 2006.

Euro-Parliamentary Elections the Test
--------------


6. (C) Hrebenciuc said that despite the expressed preference

BUCHAREST 00001724 002.2 OF 002


of President Basescu, it was impossible to have early general
elections, but that the European Parliamentary elections
would be an important indicator of the various parties'
strengths in the run up to parliamentary elections in 2008.
He said the "next six months would be decisive" as the party
would try to move from its current low standing of about 23%
percent to around 33-35% in the polls.


7. (C) Diaconescu said that the Social Democrats lost their
support in Romania's five largest cities) Bucharest, Iasi,
Constanta, Cluj, and Timisoara - during the 2004 elections.
The challenge for the party was to regain its urban votes
without losing its rural base, noting that party old-timers
including former President Iliescu would be helpful in
appealing to rural voters. Diaconescu acknowledged that
Geoana's "intellectual" image and lack of President Basescu's
populist touch were handicaps, but insisted that a strong
team around the party president to promote the party's ideas
would help compensate for this. Diaconescu added that the
Liberals were "going down" as the current split in the PNL
between the Tariceanu-Olteanu wing and the emerging
Stolojan-Stoica "Liberal-Democrat" faction could take as much
as 10% of their popular vote, reducing Prime Minister
Tariceanu's Liberals to 6-7% in the polls (reftel).

Post-Election Coalition Realignments Possible
--------------


8. (C) Diaconescu believed the Democrats, even with the
possibility of merging with a new Stolojan-Stoica "Liberal
Democrat" party, would not have the votes to govern without a
coalition. Moreover, ultra-nationalists Gigi Becali and
Vadim Tudor were gaining in the polls, making a future
coalition that much harder to form. After reviewing possible
coalition combinations, Diaconescu opined that a future
PSD-PD coalition was "closer to a solution" as the Democrats
had the second best party infrastructure in the country, next
to PSD. Both Tanasescu and Hrebenciuc said that a coalition
with the PD would only be possible following the May 2007
Euro-Parliament elections, since each party would be focused
on maximizing its own vote until then. Tanasescu figured the
best way forward would be a PD-PSD coalition focused on
improving Romania,s administrative capacity so that it can
take advantage of EU accession funds and focus on economic
development as its post EU-accession national agenda.


9. (C) Comment: Geoana appears to have emerged as the
uncontested leader of PSD, with some of the old-timers
stepping, or being pushed, to the back. Whether Geoana is
able to erase the stigma of corruption and increase his
party's standings in the next elections remain open
questions. Conventional political wisdom among all of the
mainstream parties now focuses on a three-tiered electoral
roadmap: elections for the European Parliament on May 31,
2007; Romanian Parliamentary elections in 2008; and
Presidential elections in 2009. President Basescu remains
the only one still pushing for snap elections but he has
recently acknowledged that even sitting parliamentarians
within his Democratic Alliance coalition are loath to stand
for a new election. Other parties shared the PSD view that
the 2007 Euro-Parliament race would be a preliminary test of
parties' relative strengths. Several law-makers mentioned
that the leaders of many parties may actually appear at the
head of the party lists in order to make the European
Parliamentary election truly a test-run for the 2008 Romanian
parliamentary election. End Comment.
Taubman