FORMER PNL PRESIDENTS EXPELLED AS PARTY TURMOIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001646

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI RO
SUBJECT: FORMER PNL PRESIDENTS EXPELLED AS PARTY TURMOIL
CONTINUES

REF: BUCHAREST 1202

Classified By: Policial Counselor Ted Tanoue for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary: Internecine squabbling in the National
Liberal Party (PNL) has claimed more prominent critics of
Prime Minister Tariceanu. Two former PNL Presidents, Valeriu
Stoica and Theodor Stolojan, are the biggest names in a long
list of party leaders expelled in recent weeks. The two
responded by launching a platform to revitalize the Liberals
and unify center-right parties in a "federation"-type
arrangement short of a full-fledged merger. While the launch
of the alternative platform did not trigger any immediate
defections, Stoica told us the move will shore up support for
the post-Tariceanu future. Younger PNL voices view the
Stolojan-Stoica axis as yesterday,s news. While
acknowledging Tariceanu,s weaknesses, they see no immediate
alternative in sight, and bemoan the party,s "talent gap" in
the race with Basescu,s Democratic party to develop
attractive new candidates. Either way, the Liberals have
probably done themselves a disservice, at least in terms of
providing the party a larger role in the country's future.
End Summary.

Purging the critics
--------------


2. (C) On October 18, the leadership of a Bucharest PNL
branch expelled Valeriu Stoica, president of the PNL in
2001-2002 and deputy PNL president from 1997-2001. Ten days
earlier, former PNL president from 2002-2004 (and ex-Prime
Minister) Theodor Stolojan was stripped of party membership
under similar circumstances. Both were accused of violating
party discipline and making statements critical of the party
leadership. In late September, two young and promising PNL
deputies, Raluca Turcan and Cristian Boureanu, were also
expelled by the top party executive body. Earlier in the
month, another critic (and possible future rival) of PM
Tariceanu, former minister of culture and PNL vice-president
Mona Musca, was ousted for alleged collaboration with the
communist-era Securitate.


3. (C) Although expelled for different reasons and by
different party bodies, all these former PNL personalities
shared a common critical stance vis--vis the current PNL
leadership and especially of PNL president, PM Calin
Popescu-Tariceanu. Over the past year, party dissidents have
attacked Tariceanu for blocking a planned merger between the
PNL and PD, and for political cronyism, adoption of an
increasingly autocratic leadership style, and his surprise
demand for withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq. The
other common denominator of the dissidents was a positive
relationship with Basescu, who is in turn anathema to
Tariceanu, his circle of young political lieutenants, and the
Prime Minister's principal financial backer, Dinu Patriciu.

Liberals vs. Liberals
--------------


4. (C) Criticism from the dissident PNL wing culminated with
the launch of an alternative party platform on October 15.
Signatories included Stoica, Stolojan, Turcan and Boureanu.
Mona Musca announced she would not attend the public launch
of the platform and said she would not rejoin the political
fray until she cleared her name of charges that she was a
Securitate informer during the Ceaucescu era.


5. (C) The alternative platform is a pastiche of proposals
previously floated by Stoica (widely seen as the force behind
this current challenge to Tariceanu),Stolojan and Musca.
The platform includes calls for the creation of a large
center-right political bloc capable of challenging the
mainstream social-democratic party, with the aim of
establishing in Romania a two-party system in order to
increase efficiency and good governance. The platform also
accuses the PNL leadership of failing to promote the
unification of center-right political parties, reserving
special opprobrium for Tariceanu for opposing a merger with
the Democratic Party.

King or King-maker?
--------------


6. (C) In a meeting with Polcouns, Stocia said the PNL
dissidents and the current party leadership were divided by
their competing visions for the party's future. He said that
under Stolojan and himself, the goal had been a large
center-right party that could attract at least 25 percent of
the electoral votes. In contrast, Tariceanu and his

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collaborators wanted a more easily controlled niche party
(with no more than a 10-12 percent vote share) that could
play the role of "king-maker" but might never be king.
Stoica said that prospects for a PNL-PD merger were "dead"
because of competing party histories, ambitions, and egos.
He added that it still was possible to create a "federation"
of center-right parties stronger than the current coalition,
but short of a full fledged merger.


7. (C) Stoica insisted that he was not trying to split the
PNL or to form a new party. Characterizing Tariceanu and his
supporters as strategic amateurs," Stoica said Tariceanu had
compounded the error of competing head-to-head with the
popular Basescu by expelling the PNL,s most popular figures
(Stolojan and Musca consistently rank among the most popular
political figures in Romania, well ahead in the polls of the
Prime Minister). Stoica acknowledged, however, that
Tariceanu had succeeded in cowing the majority of remaining
party leaders, who were keeping their heads down for the time
being. Stoica said that he was treating his expected
expulsion from the PNL with equanimity as he had been
expelled previously from the PNL but had returned to head the
party; in turn, he had expelled Tariceanu when he was in
charge. Stoica said that he did not expect the alternative
platform to trigger any immediate changes within the PNL.
The goal was to "raise the flag" to announce that there is
now an alternative PNL leadership for the post-Tariceanu era.

Generational Divide
--------------


8. (C) A contrasting voice came from PNL Deputy (and head of
the PNL Youth Wing) Cristian Adomnitei. Adomnitei agreed
that the Stoica-Stolojan platform was meant to position the
former leaders for a possible post-Tariceanu era, but noted
that Tariceanu,s role as PNL president was secure at least
until the advent of elections. He said talk of early
elections was receding, as even deputies from Basescu,s own
party were loathe to abandon a secure seat for the
uncertainties and costs of running in new elections.
Adomnitei insisted that far from being credible alternatives
to Tariceanu, Stoica and Stolojan (and to a lesser extend,
Mona Musca) represented an older generation of PNL leaders
whose public wrangling with Tariceanu had itself weakened the
party.


9. (C) Adomnitei also defended the PNL decision to expel
Stoica, Stolojan, and Musca, noting that they were seen by
the party rank and file as working against party interests.
He said there was always room in the PNL for dissenting
voices, as evidenced by such younger PNL leaders as PNL
Bucharest branch head Ludovic Orban and PNL Deputy Crin
Antonescu. Both were highly visible for defending the PNL
and attacking President Basescu, but they also did not spare
Tariceanu from criticism as being weak and indecisive.

But Successor Generation Not Ready
--------------


10. (C) Adomnitei opined that Orban appreared to be
genuinely uninterested in vying for the party leadership. In
contrast, Antonescu had ambitions of taking over the PNL. He
characterized Antonescu as an excellent orator who lacks
management and strategic skills. Adomnitei added that he was
not himself in the pro-Tariceanu camp; he was firmly on the
side of Chamber of Deputies President Bogdan Olteanu, whom he
characterized as "the best representative of the new
generation of PNL leaders." Adomnitei confided, however,
that while Tariceanu was not necessarily the "best" leader
for the PNL, Olteanu was not yet mature enough to take over
the job.


11. (C) Adomnitei also bemoaned the "talent gap" in the
younger generation of PNL leaders, noting that the party had
always had difficulty in finding good candidates to fill key
government posts. He said that Cristian David,s perennial
candidacy for whatever new government vacancy emerged was a
good example of this. Adomnitei said the problem was
exacerbated by Romania,s improving business environment;
politics was no longer as attractive a career option for
smart, ambitious youths as it was in the post-Ceaucescu era.
He also acknowledged that Basescu,s Democratic Party was
better than the PNL in recruiting attractive "new faces."
Adomnitei blamed PNL "laziness" in not assuming "difficult"
portfolios such as the Interior, Justice, and Economic
ministries, adding that this was unfortunately part of the
institutional culture of the PNL, which was content with
remaining a "small party."


12. (C) Comment: The recent expulsions appear to be a

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Pyrrhic victory for Tariceanu. The departure of its most
popular members leaves the party weaker, both in terms of
talent and popular support. Yet Tariceanu,s continued
tenure as party President seems assured for the time given
the general lack of enthusiasm for early elections and the
elimination of competitors in party ranks. The current
bitter wrangling within the PNL is entirely in character with
its turbulent post- 1989 history. It split into six parties
in the early nineties, lost its parliamentary representation
in 1992 and reunited only with great difficulty in the late
1990s. Neither the expulsion of two former party presidents,
nor the launch of the alternative "liberal platform" appear
to have had much immediate impact, as only two party branches
came out publicly in support of the dissidents. While the
PNL discord has been a windfall for President Basescu and the
PD, they have taken a low-key stance, refusing to openly take
sides. It is a luxury that they can afford. If the Liberal
dissidents break off to form a new party, it will be a better
partner for the PD than the PNL; if not, they may eventually
migrate (on Basescu's terms) to the PD. End Comment.
Taubman