Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUCHAREST1574
2006-10-12 16:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

IRI POLLS UNDERSCORE BASESCU'S DOMINANCE OF THE

Tags:  PREL PGOV RO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBM #1574/01 2851603
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 121603Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5338
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001574 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: IRI POLLS UNDERSCORE BASESCU'S DOMINANCE OF THE
ROMANIAN POLITICAL SCENE


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Tanoue for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AARON JENSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: IRI POLLS UNDERSCORE BASESCU'S DOMINANCE OF THE
ROMANIAN POLITICAL SCENE


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Tanoue for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: A recent IRI opinion survey underscores
President Basescu's continuing dominance of the Romanian
political scene. A majority of respondents evinced a
preference for political stability over early elections.
Interestingly, almost as many Romanians support the
opposition PSD as the Liberal Party possible future coalition
partner for Basescu's Democratic Party (PD). While Romanians
remain enthusiastic about long-term economic opportunities
afforded by EU integration, few were confident that Romania
would be better off within 6 months of EU accession. Party
contacts across the board shared a growing view that EU
Parliamentary elections next year should be used to gauge
voter support prior to plunging into early general elections.
The greatest hand-wringing came from PNL leaders, who were
openly concerned that the party's recent strategy of breaking
ranks with Basescu and the PD over Iraq deployments and
purging its most popular party members had failed to improve
its poll standings. End Summary.


2. (SBU) An recent opinion survey (note: complete results
sent by e-mail to EUR/NCE) conducted by the International
Republican Institute underscored that Romanians remain
enthusiastic about long-term economic growth and
opportunities afforded by EU integration, remain troubled by
poverty and corruption, and are unenthusiastic about early
elections. The face-to-face survey was conducted among 1005
respondents nationwide 19-25 September, with a margin of
error of 3 percent. The ruling PNL coalition remained the
overwhelming favorite of potential voters, with a 44 percent
support rate, compared to 23 percent for the PSD and 13
percent for the right-extremist PRM. A strong majority of
respondents (61 percent) believed that a candidates post-1989
record was more important than any past history of
collaboration with the Securitate; only 26 percent of
respondents believed otherwise.


3. (SBU) Among coalition partners, voters favored President
Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) over Prime Minister

Tariceanu's Liberal Party (PNL) by a 57 percent to 31 percent
margin. Similarly, President Basescu continued to get high
individual marks, with an overall 69 percent favorable
rating. The next most popular politicians included former PM
Theodor Stolojan (at 59 percent); Gigi Becali (51 percent);
Mona Musca (50 percent),PSD President Mircea Geoana (49
percent),and Prime Minister Tariceanu (47 percent).
Interestingly, respondents viewed the liberal PNL and
left-centrist PSD as virtually interchangeable, with 17
percent of respondents stating a preference for the PNL as
their choice for a member of the ruling coalition, and 16
percent favoring the PSD. Nearly half of respondents (49
percent) disagreed with early elections, with only 31 percent
favoring early elections.


4. (SBU) The majority of respondents agreed that President
Basescu was "more powerful" than Prime Minister Tariceanu,
with only 10 percent stating that the PM held more power.
Some 60 percent of respondents stated a preference for a
presidential republic, compared to 20 percent who favored a
parliamentary republic. However, 48 percent of respondents
evinced enthusiasm for changing the current "party list"
voting system for parliament to a single-member constituency
system, with 21 percent favoring no change in the existing
system. Institutions receiving high marks from respondents
for "serving the Romanian citizens interest" included the
church (83 percent); media (74 percent); military (70
percent); the EU (62 percent); the President (58 percent);
and NATO (54 percent). Lower marks went to the government
(28 percent); Parliament (23 percent) and political parties
(17 percent).


5. (SBU) While a large majority (79 percent) believed that
foreign investment was either important or very important for
the economic future of Romania, nearly half of respondents
(46 percent) preferred this investment to come from Europe as
opposed to the United States (14 percent). A majority of
respondents (62 percent) evinced skepticism about the
government's ability to deliver its promises in the fight
against corruption, with only 6 percent stating that the
government was strongly determined to fight corruption.
Similarly, 77 percent of respondents believed that bribes
needed to be paid in order to get things done. Only 21
percent felt that economic opportunities had improved since
the 2004 elections.


6. (SBU) Respondents also betrayed a strong tinge of
cold-war nostalgia, with 48 percent agreeing with the
statement that "life was better before 1989"; only 27 percent

BUCHAREST 00001574 002 OF 002


thought living conditions had improved and 16 percent saw no
difference. Only 21 percent of respondents evinced
confidence that Romania would be better off within 6 months
of EU accession; 28 percent felt that Romania would be the
same; 39 percent thought the situation would worsen.
However, a majority (55 percent) thought Romania's situation
would improve 3 years hence; 13 percent said the country
would remain the same; 17 percent thought the situation would
get worse.


7. (C) This is the first of four polls that IRI will conduct
in coming months. IRI Country Director Patrick Sheehan told
PolCouns that he held separate sessions to brief the poll
numbers to the Presidential Office and major political
parties including the PD, PNL, and PSD. He said that the
"take-home" message that all of his interlocutors drew from
the surveys included voters' strong preference for political
stability and distaste for early elections. (note: we
believe that respondents' indifference to whether it is the
PNL or PSD that is the partner in the ruling coalition
underscores that Basescu retains the option of changing
coalition partners in the future. end note.) Sheehan said
that he detected a growing view among the leading parties the
EU Parliamentary elections next year should be used as a
barometer of actual voter support with an eye towards
providing the data necessary to gauging whether early
elections are a desirable option for their respective
parties.


8. (C) Sheehan said nearly every party appears to have found
something to their liking in the survey results. According
to IRI, the Presidential Office staff turned out in force for
the briefing session, with some 25 staffers attending. They
were reportedly pleased that the IRI surveys reinforced
conclusions from their own polling data regarding Basescu's
continuing high popularity. The session at PD headquarters
elicited a strong response from PD Vice President (and
Bucharest Mayor) Adrian Videanu, who reportedly declared that
he would personally discuss the polls with President Basescu
and senior PNL leaders with an eye towards buttressing the
fraying PD-PNL alliance. PSD President Geoana evinced
satisfaction that the polling data reinforced his desire to
push his party in a "modern left-centrist" direction (note:
he reportedly cited Clinton, Blair, and Schroeder as models).


9. (C) The polls elicited the greatest hand-wringing from
PNL leaders, who held a marathon 3-hour session with IRI.
PNL members reportedly evinced a bunker mentality, expressing
dissatisfaction that the party's recent strategy of breaking
ranks with Basescu and the PD over Iraq deployments and of
purging its 3 most popular party members had failed to
improve their poll standings. Party leaders also expressed
concern that the PD might abruptly swap the PSD for the PNL
in the ruling coalition. Romanian skepticism over the
short-term benefits of EU entry also tracks better with
President Basescu's recent statements emphasizing the future
challenges of EU entry rather than the more anodyne stance of
the Prime Minister, underscoring that the end of
post-accession EU-phoria may hurt PM Tariceanu more than the
President.

Taubman