Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BUCHAREST1202
2006-07-28 05:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

DIVISIONS IN THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY (PNL) --

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR RO 
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VZCZCXRO3504
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBM #1202/01 2090537
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 280537Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4882
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001202 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE BILL SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/21
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR RO
SUBJECT: DIVISIONS IN THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY (PNL) --
HOW LONG WILL PM TARICEANU LAST?


Classified By: Classified By: CDA Rodger Garner for Reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001202

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE BILL SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/21
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR RO
SUBJECT: DIVISIONS IN THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY (PNL) --
HOW LONG WILL PM TARICEANU LAST?


Classified By: Classified By: CDA Rodger Garner for Reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D)


1. (C) Summary: As the National Liberal Party (PNL) faces a
decline in the polls, three well-known PNL members have
staked out a common position against Prime Minister and PNL
leader Calin Popescu-Tariceanu that could form a locus for
eventually replacing him. Frustrated by Tariceanu's poor
relationship with President Traian Basescu, as well as by
what they call his autocratic leadership style and erratic
decision-making, the group has called on the PM to return to
the party's "core values" or face more intense competition
from them and others in the months ahead. Embassy contacts
assert it would be premature to write Tariceanu's political
obituary, as he maintains strong links with key local leaders
who form the spine of the party, as well as with many top PNL
members in the Parliament. He has also shown a low tolerance
for open dissent. Nonetheless, even many of his supporters
have doubts he can survive as PM or PNL leader beyond the
short-term. At the very least, the new initiative by the
three members may provide a new option for PNL members
dissatisfied with Tariceanu's leadership. End Summary.


STOLOJAN, MUSCA, AND STOICA SPEAK OUT
--------------

2. (C) In a July 17 press conference, three major critics
within the center-right PNL joined forces for the first time
against the party's president and Prime Minister Calin
Popescu Tariceanu. They accused him of turning Romania's
historic liberal party into a strictly disciplined,
internally undemocratic party that is abandoning the party's
values, beholden to certain interest groups, and dropping in
the polls. The critics -- former PNL party presidents Theodor
Stolojan and Valeriu Stoica and former PNL vice president
Mona Musca -- issued a public "appeal" to Tariceanu to
fulfill a list of conditions by early September "to avoid a
major crisis." The three leaders of what could be an

emerging internal opposition to Tariceanu asked him to cancel
the recent sanctions given to party several members who
criticized him, to return to the "priorities of citizens"
rather than those of certain "groups of interests," and to
cease the party's fighting with the Democratic Party, it's
main partner in the coalition government. Stolojan said that
he is working on re-launching PNL's political platform, which
many Embassy contacts believe will become an alternative
platform that could attract disaffected Liberals and
challenge Tariceanu's grip on the party.


3. (C) The impetus for the new challenge to Tariceanu by the
three senior PNL members was Tariceanu's June 28 proposal for
a withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq, which took most of
the party by surprise. Although the three members did not
explicitly cite this cause publicly, they acknowledged their
action was designed to highlight disgust with what they saw
as an irresponsible move by Tariceanu in failing to consult
international partners, or even others within the PNL, before
announcing the proposal. They were also concerned about
Tariceanu's attempt to stifle dissent to the proposal --
including from Foreign Minister Ungureanu.


4. (C) Musca remains the second most popular politician in
Romania after Basescu, according to virtually every opinion
poll. Stolojan, credited with more than doubling support for
PNL while party president from 2002-2004, has slipped in
popularity but is still widely regarded as honest and
competent. He has assumed a more public role in recent
months, following an extended period of remaining out of the
limelight following his September 2004 resignation as PNL
leader and PNL-PD presidential candidate. As a presidential
counselor to Basescu, he is identified closely with the
former. Although widely regarded as a political has-been,
Stoica has been prominent in calling for reform within the
party, including for a merger between PNL and Basescu's
Democratic Party (PD).


TARICEANU'S TIGHT GRIP
--------------

5. (C) Despite the challenge from the three PNL
heavyweights, many PNL contacts confide that any move
actually to oust Tariceanu as party leader would be
difficult, particularly as long as he remains Prime Minister.
They cite the fact that as PM, Tariceanu also controls
resources for counties and cities, and hence -- through
patronage -- commands allegiance from local party branches.
Presidential advisor and PNL member Bogdan Chiritoiu assessed
to PolChief that local party leaders have a "clubby and
comfortable relationship with Tariceanu" and they "see no

BUCHAREST 00001202 002 OF 003


need to replace him for the time being." At the same time,
Chiritoiu did not rule out a shift at some point. He
described PNL as "unstintingly mercurial," noting that the
party had changed leaders nine times since 1989, far more
than any of the other major political parties. Dissident PNL
MP Cristian Boureanu similarly mentioned to PolOff the strong
regional party support enjoyed by Tariceanu. Boureanu
believed it would take an external event, such as snap
elections or a motion of no confidence, to provoke a change
in the party's leadership. Political Analyst and pollster
Sebastian Lazaroiu similarly believed that there would be a
shift "only when elections are in sight" and the party sees
the need to improve its standing in the polls.


6. (C) In addition, PNL members privately assert that
Tariceanu controls the PNL central leadership and
parliamentary faction to an unprecedented degree. MP and PNL
standing bureau member Raluca Turcan complained to poloffs
that the PNL was no longer a party of "many independent
thinkers" as it had been historically. She claimed that
Tariceanu -- with the help of a handful of confidantes such
as Chamber of Deputies President Bogdan Olteanu, Minister
Delegate and MP Christian David, and academic Dorel Sandor --
secures discipline through threats and tolerates very little
dissent from more junior and middle level members. She
asserted that ever since Tariceanu had become leader, he had
held the reigns very closely and given out positions to
ensure personal loyalty, rather than loyalty to party
principles. Tariceanu has threatened to kick both Turcan and
Boureanu -- who is known as one the party's most articulate,
young politicians -- out of the PNL if they continue to
oppose him publicly.


7. (C) Ironically, Tariceanu is also strengthened to some
degree by the attacks against him by Basescu, as PNL members
close ranks to protect their leader. Virtually all contacts
report that the two main coalition parties now view each
other with far more hostility than they do the opposition
Social Democratic Party (PSD). And, as MP Boureanu asserted
to PolChief, "every tirade" against Tariceanu by Basescu
makes some PNL members "dig in their heels a little more" to
keep Tariceanu in place. In the same vein, many in the party
view Stolojan and Musca as too close to Basescu, and hence
unsuitable to lead the PNL. PNL MP Cristian Adomnitei
referred to them as "puppets," in a conversation with PolOff,
adding that he and others in the party are becoming
increasingly annoyed with them. Presidential Advisor
Chiritoiu opined that the eventual replacement for Tariceanu
might have to be a candidate acceptable to both camps,
possibly Agriculture Minister Gheorghe Flutur.


ONE KEY PNL DISSIDENT ELABORATES
--------------

8. (C) In a July 19 conversation with PolOff, Mona Musca
spoke freely about internal fighting within PNL. She asserted
the hearts of many in the PNL were never with the DA
Alliance, as many PNL leaders were in business -- often as
partners with PSD members -- and just wanted to remain a
minority party. She claimed that some in the PNL, led by
Rompetrol head Dinu Patriciu, sought to help PSD win against
Basescu during the second round of the 2004 presidential
election. Musca added that Tariceanu also had not wanted to
align with Basescu until September 2004, when Stolojan passed
the party leadership to him. Musca also recalled her
"disgust" with Tariceanu when he recanted on his public
pledge to resign and force new election in July 2005. In
protest, she resigned from her position as Minister of
Culture and Religion and PNL vice president.


9. (C) Musca said Tariceanu's latest episode of "dangerous
behavior" -- the undiplomatic way he proposed a withdrawal of
Romanian troops from Iraq -- convinced her, Stolojan, and
Stoica that Tariceanu had now taken an obsession with
fighting Basescu to a dangerous level. She characterized
Tariceanu's making the "national interest subservient to
politics" as tantamount to "betting his wife in a poker
game." She said that she is not worried about being kicked
out of the party -- it would be "bizarre" to kick someone out
for asking for unity, and doing so would "only damage
Tariceanu's ratings," just as he has declined in the polls
throughout his fight with Basescu. Worried by PNL's decline
to 13% in a recent poll (from a high of roughly 20 percent in
2004),Musca said that she, Stolojan, and Stoica concluded
they needed to act to prevent the party from disappearing
after governing. She added that Stolojan was currently
touring the regional branches to drum up support, but
lamented that Tariceanu had already called the mayors ahead
of time advising them not to meet with him.

BUCHAREST 00001202 003 OF 003




10. (C) Comment: Regardless of the hold Tariceanu may have on
his party, he has been less adept at increasing his own
popularity or that of the PNL in opinion polls, even when
attempting to capitalize on seemingly popular issues such as
a withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq. His durability as
Prime Minister and PNL leader remains a subject of intense
speculation in Bucharest. Some politicians and analysts
predict a change mid-fall, after the European Commission
gives its final green light to EU accession on January 1,

2007. Others see a cabinet shake-up or new elections in
mid-spring 2007. Still others see the PM hanging on for much
longer, either due to his political skills or, according to
one theory, Basescu's desire to keep him as a foil. The new
initiative by Stolojan, Musca, and Stoica may ultimately not
be a vehicle that removes Tariceanu from the PM or party
leader jobs -- contacts speak more often of new elections or
a change in government spurred by a breakdown in the ruling
coalition. Nonetheless, it has been the most direct
challenge to his party leadership thus far, and presents a
new option for PNL members dissatisfied with the course the
PM has set.


11. Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are available
on the Bucharest SIPRNet website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest
GARNER