PM TARICEANU TO AMBASSADOR -- "TIME HAS COME" FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MARR NATO AF IZ RO
SUBJECT: PM TARICEANU TO AMBASSADOR -- "TIME HAS COME" FOR
ROMANIA TO DISCUSS TROOP PULLOUT FROM IRAQ

REF: A) BUCHAREST 1081 B) BUCHAREST 1072 C) BUCHAREST

1058

Classified By: Ambassador Nicholas Taubman for Reasons 1.4(a),(b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu told
the Ambassador July 5 that he and his National Liberal Party
(PNL) believed that "the time had come" for Romania to begin
discussing a troop withdrawal from Iraq. Tariceanu stood by
the proposal for a pullout he and Defense Minister Atanasiu
had made on June 29, despite the resounding vote against the
measure the following day in Romania's Supreme Council for
National Defense (CSAT). Tariceanu promised a public debate
on the issue, which he believed would eventually lead to
sufficient pressure against the CSAT to reverse its decision.
He promised to ensure the debate remained "constructive" and
focused on Iraq, and believed a gradual withdrawal of
Romanian troops could begin as early as January 2007.
Ambassador underscored strong concern with Tariceanu's
failure to consult with the U.S. prior to making the
announcement. Ambassador also emphasized the valued role
Romania has played in Iraq and expressed hope that this new
debate would not lead to a premature withdrawal. Meanwhile,
President Traian Basescu used a July 5 cabinet meeting as an
opportunity to underscore his continued support for Romanian
engagement in Iraq. Many Embassy contacts continue to assess
that Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) plans to oust Tariceanu
as early as this fall. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador met the afternoon of July 5 with Prime
Minister Tariceanu, the Ambassador's first substantial
conversation with the PM since that the latter's June 29
announcement, made with the DefMin, proposing that Romania
withdraw its troops from Iraq. The Ambassador had spoken
briefly with Tariceanu on the margins of Embassy's July 4
reception, but that conversation was cut short by President
Basescu's arrival at the event. Tariceanu made no reference
during either conversation to what even his close advisors
say is the underlying motive of the proposal -- an attempted
political strike against Basescu. Rather, the PM couched his
arguments in EU terms, and sought to provide verbal
assurances that our bilateral relationship would not be
affected in other areas.


Ambassador to PM: "Allies Consult"
--------------

3. (C) The Ambassador initiated the conversation with
Tariceanu by noting strong concern that neither the Embassy
nor any other USG entity had been consulted prior to
Tariceanu and DefMin Atanasiu's announcement. The Ambassador
stressed that this was not the type of conduct expected from
a friend and ally, especially one that had been so reliable
and with which we have had such a strong consultative
relationship. The Ambassador said that the announcement had
led many in the USG to wonder if Romania was falling back on
its commitments. He stressed that Iraq remained the single
most important project for the U.S., and that stability and
democracy in Iraq are important to Europe as well as to the
U.S. The Ambassador also noted that some of our European
partners had expressed concern with how Tariceanu had made
the unexpected announcement -- at that particular moment
Romania did not look very credible as a partner.


PM Tariceanu: The "Issue Needed to Be Raised"
-------------- -

4. (C) Tariceanu did not respond directly, but rather
described the withdrawal proposal as "an issue that needed to
be raised." He added that "the time had come" to begin
discussing a pullout of Romanian troops, as there appeared to
be a clear trend at the European level for countries to begin
reconsidering their commitments in Iraq. He said this had
not previously been part of the public discussion in Romania,
despite polling figures showing that a high percentage of
Romanians oppose having troops in Iraq. He described his
proposal as "delicate," recognizing it had hit a public nerve
and clearly raised the ire of the president. But, he said,
Romania must figure out a way to disengage from Iraq over
"the next period." He viewed introducing the issue into the
public debate as a first step in this direction, and claimed
the PNL sought to seize the issue before it was raised by the
extreme nationalist Greater Romania Party (PRM). Tariceanu
asserted that the PRM would have "misused" and even gained
votes from the issue.


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5. (C) Still expressing concern that the proposal had even
been made, the Ambassador asked Tariceanu what he and his
party planned next, given that the CSAT had voted down the
proposal. Tariceanu said he anticipated parliamentary debate
on the issue and, potentially, even a referendum. He
believed that the CSAT would eventually have to reconsider
its position when the level of public opposition became
clear. Tariceanu emphasized that his "political" proposal
did not mean that Romania should decide on the spot to
withdraw from Iraq, without coordination with allies.
Romania would need to follow all institutional procedures,
particularly in the Parliament. He raised the possibility
that Romania could begin withdrawal in January 2007, but that
would not mean all troops would be removed at once.


6. (C) Ambassador underscored that Iraq remains an important
component in the Global War on Terror and that Romanian
troops continued to serve an important role in Iraq. The
U.S. values this presence, which has earned Romania a
reputation as a solid ally. Tariceanu expressed his view that
most Iraqis do not want international troops in Iraq -- their
continued presence raised questions about the viability of
new Iraqi institutions. In this light, he said he supported
continued training of Iraqi military forces and would even
support an increase in the number of Romanian troops training
their Iraqi counterparts.


7. (C) Tariceanu said that it was not his intention for the
debate over Romanian troops in Iraq to spread to other
issues. The PM stressed "we remain firmly committed" to our
contributions to Afghanistan, where Romanian troops serve as
part of a NATO mission. The Ambassador reiterated the
importance of Iraq to the U.S. and Europe. Before leaving
the meeting, the Ambassador again welcomed the decision by
Basescu and the CSAT to retain Romanian troops in Iraq and
urged consultation, coordination, and level-headedness now
that Tariceanu and the PNL had launched this unfortunate
debate on Romania's presence in Iraq.


Basescu and Opposition PSD Reiterate Iraq Commitment
-------------- --------------

8. (C) Meanwhile, President Basescu has continued to
underscore Romania's commitment to Iraq. During a cabinet
meeting which adjourned immediately prior to the Ambassador's
July 5 meeting with Tariceanu, Basescu reportedly reminded
the government that Romania's engagement in Iraq is based on
UN resolutions and a specific request from the Iraqi
government. On the margins of the July 4 reception, he
conveyed to the Ambassador that the situation appears to be
stabilizing in Iraq and it would be great if "we could all
pull out together in 2007."


9. (C) In addition, the opposition Social Democratic Party
(PSD) issued a communique characterizing the PNL proposal to
withdraw from Iraq as a "diversion" meant to turn public
attention away from social problems confronting the Romanian
population. The PSD, which was in power when Romanian troops
were first committed to Iraq in 2003, reiterated its earlier
call for an unspecified timeline for withdrawal from Iraq.
PSD contacts continue to tell post privately that the party
shares Basescu's view that the troops should remain for the
time being and represent a central component in Romania's
strategic partnership with the U.S.


10. (C) Comment: Although the volume of the debate over
Romania's troop presence in Iraq has lowered somewhat in the
past two days, it remains a point of contention to a degree
unseen before the PM's announcement. Defense Minister
Atanasiu -- who previously remained out of the limelight --
continues to make public comments pointing to the supposedly
high cost of deployment as grounds for withdrawal. In
response, presidential spokesperson Adriana Saftoiu has
called on Atanasiu to resign and said both the PM and DefMin
should have accepted formally the CSAT's decision to maintain
the troop presence. Meanwhile, political analysts and
politicians continue to ask how long the PNL-PD center right
coalition can continue, given this latest blow delivered by
Tariceanu. One junior PSD MP confided to PolChief July 6 that
the party is already preparing to govern again, likely in
coalition with Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) in fall or
early next year. The MP did not offer further specifics, but
the assertion shows that this outcome is in the scope of more
than just the party's senior leaders. An increasing number
of Embassy contacts have opined that they cannot see how
Tariceanu can survive in office beyond the short term given
that President Basescu is so clearly against him. End

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Comment.
TAUBMAN