IRAQ PULLOUT PROPOSAL -- DEBATE DEEPENS, WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001081

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE BILL SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2121
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MARR NATO AF IZ RO
SUBJECT: IRAQ PULLOUT PROPOSAL -- DEBATE DEEPENS, WHILE
PRIME MINISTER CONSIDERS WAYS TO WALK IT BACK

REF: BUCHAREST 1072

Classified By: Classified by DCM Mark Taplin for Reasons 1.4(a),(b) an
d (d)


1. (C) Summary: The debate over Romania's troop presence in
Iraq continued to dominate weekend news coverage, following
the unexpected June 29 announcement by Prime Minister
Tariceanu and Defense Minister Atanasiu in support of a
pull-out. Foreign Minister Ungureanu and Finance Minister
Vladescu -- who voted against the PM on the issue in a key
Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT) meeting on June
30 -- will keep their positions despite calls from Atanasiu
for their dismissal. Although President Traian Basescu and
others have continued to denounce the call for a pull out, a
key advisor to the PM told post that Tariceanu seeks to put
the issue behind him. Meanwhile, Embassy contacts report
that Basescu is contemplating strategies for eventually
removing Tariceanu from power, although this would not be
expected until after a key European Commission report on
Romania's EU accession is released in October. Several
contacts predict that Basescu will eventually form an
alliance with the leading opposition Social Democratic Party
(PSD). Although the political conflict generated by the PM's
proposal appears to have peaked, the public discussion
launched over Romania's overseas deployments is likely to
continue. End Summary.


2. (C) The fall-out from Prime Minister Tariceanu and Defense
Minister Atanasiu's call for a troop withdrawal from Iraq
remained the hot political topic in Bucharest, with
politicians and pundits debating both the merits of the
deployment as well as the domestic political consequences of
the surprise announcement. The National Liberal Party (PNL)
remained divided over the PM's call, but has taken steps to
restore party unity. Several Embassy contacts asserted that
this most recent crisis represented a low point for relations
between Basescu and Tariceanu, with shock waves that will
continue to reverberate within both the PNL and the governing
coalition. Opinions varied as to the long term impact. Few
believe the coalition will survive for another year.


A Liberal Party Armistice?
--------------

3. (C) After a heated weekend of name calling and
recriminations across all sectors of the political class, PNL
leaders convened the morning of July 3 to try to seek party
unity. PM and PNL leader Tariceanu told journalists following
the session that the PNL leadership agreed Ungureanu and
Vladescu behaved "regrettably" in opposing a pull out.
Nonetheless, the PM continued, both men will retain their
portfolios because they have "important things" to do,
including ongoing issues related to EU accession. The PM
also confirmed that Ungureanu and Vladescu would not be
subject to PNL internal discipline. Ungureanu stated after
the meeting that he would remain as FM, underscoring that
"any debate is welcome...but my point of view (on the issue
of withdrawing troops) is nonnegotiable." The FM
acknowledged, however, that the PNL has started a debate on
this topic. Echoing remarks made by the PM last week,
Tariceanu ally and PNL Vice President Senator Teodor
Melescanu stressed that the PNL would launch a "public
debate" including NGOs and PNL local branches on the
advisability of maintaining troops in Iraq


4. (C) Meanwhile, Tariceanu's Chef de Cabinet, Mihnea
Constantinescu, told DCM that the PM seeks to de-escalate the
issue, which provoked a stronger reaction than he and his
closest party advisors had anticipated. Constantinescu
expressed hope that the July 3 meeting had released steam,
such that the debate over the troop deployment could now take
a calmer and more rational course. Constantinescu hoped PNL
leaders would henceforth adopt a more moderate tone, although
he lamented that Basescu had labeled the PNL move during a
radio interview earlier in the day a "putsch against
Romania." Constantinescu reiterated what post had heard
before, that the PM moved to make the proposal because he was
told Basescu was about to make a withdrawal announcement and
wanted to preempt it. Constantinescu said he was shocked to
turn on the television the morning of June 29 to see PM
making announcement. He, along with others close to the PM,
acknowledged that the way the matter was handled was
disastrous. Constantinescu said the withdrawal idea had been
raised by Atanasiu, then seconded by a narrow circle of PNL
political insiders, including Chamber of Deputies Speaker
Bogdan Olteanu. No one spoke up to highlight the downsides;

BUCHAREST 00001081 002 OF 003


the impulse to get the drop on Basescu was the sole focus.


5. (C) Constantinescu related that DefMin Atanasiu would have
to remain in office for the time being. However, the PM may
eventually look for a face-saving way to replace him in
coming weeks or months, given the controversy his proposal
has generated. The PM's staff wanted to ensure the practical
defense and military cooperation work of the ministry could
be maintained.


Basescu's Battle Plan
--------------

6. (C) Presidential Counselor for Domestic Policy Claudiu
Saftoiu told PolChief July 3 that tensions between Basescu
and Tariceanu had heated to a new level, and that the
president was quietly mulling avenues for the PM's eventual
replacement. He described the proposal for withdrawal from
Iraq as "close to treason," an act that we could "only expect
from our enemies." Saftoiu lamented that Romania's
constitution does not allow the President to dismiss the PM,
which makes for "many complications other parliamentary
democracies do not face." Basescu is looking at "all the
options," but it would "take time" before the president and
the PD will be able to set a new course. Saftoiu said he and
others in the PD were weighing the possibility of an eventual
coalition with the PSD, although Basescu "is not fond of PSD
leader Mircea Geoana." Saftoiu said Basescu is particularly
impressed by PSD Senator and former MOD State Secretary
George Maior. Saftoiu also confided that there were ideas
for encouraging PNL members to replace Tariceanu, but he
declined to provide details such a plan.


7. (C) Citing their disappointment with the "huge mistake by
which the people's feelings were manipulated," Presidential
Counselor Theodor Stolojan and five other prominent PNL
members signed a June 30 statement strongly criticizing the
PM for "violating" the terms of the PNL-PD governing alliance
and for "triggering" a diplomatic and political incident.
Other signatories included popular former Culture Minister
Mona Musca and former PNL President and ex-Justice Minister
Valeriu Stoica. One of the signers, popular young PNL Deputy
Cristian Boureanu, told PolMilOff that he was stunned and
furious at the PM's call for a troop withdrawal from Iraq.
He accused the PM of having an "unserious" approach to
foreign policy and improperly using the subject of Romania's
presence in Iraq as a gambit to gain domestic political
leverage over Basescu. Nonetheless, several PNL insiders as
well as politicians from other parties have told us that
Tariceanu enjoys the support of most PNL leaders as well as
the party's rank and file. Basescu advisor Saftoiu likewise
has told Emboffs in the past that Tariceanu has the support
of the PNL's regional leadership, and can likely ride out an
internal leadership challenge.


A PSD Strategist Predicts a New Coalition
--------------

8. (C) Deputy Viorel Hrebenciuc, one of the center-left
opposition Social Democratic Party's (PSD) chief strategists
and president of the Parliamentary Commission for European
Integration, told PolChief and PolMilOff July 3 that PNL
leaders had privately confirmed to him that the PM's call for
a troop withdrawal from Iraq had "clearly been aimed" at the
President since the PM "wanted to stab Basescu". According to
Hrebenciuc, "the President and Tariceanu don't talk with each
other...and neither do the PD (Democratic Party, Basescu's
Party) or the Liberal (PNL - the PM's party) MPs." He
dismissed DefMin Atanasiu as a weak leader - "you can't
compare him with Pascu (the former DefMin) or Maior." He
suggested that the PM/DefMin call for a troop withdrawal had
backfired. Acknowledging that many Romanians favor a pullout
from Iraq, Hrebenciuc stressed that "most Romanians are not
interested in this problem" but, at the same time, recognize
the need to deal effectively with "Muslim terrorists."


9. (C) Hrebenciuc volunteered that the PSD "can talk with
Basescu, we can work with him," a point he emphasized several
times over the course of the 45 minute discussion He
continued that the PSD and PD, with support from the ethnic
Hungarian party (UDMR) and the Parliament's 18 deputies from
other minorities, would be able to force a no confidence
vote, as early as this October ("after the EC report") or in
February or March." Chuckling, Hrebenciuc continued that "we
could create a big scandal" that would move forward a no
confidence vote backed by PSD, PD, UDMR and the minority
deputies. The PSD, Hrebenciuc stressed, could "deliver" to

BUCHAREST 00001081 003 OF 003


Basescu, successfully assuring the passage of key
legislation, including pension reform laws. He stated that,
in return for supporting a no-confidence vote and entering a
coalition with the PD, the PSD would expect PSD Party
President Mircea Geoana to be Prime Minister, with a PD
member holding a Deputy PM slot. Hrebenciuc underscored that
"16 or 17 of the PSD's top leaders" (including himself) had
met over the weekend and reaffirmed their strong support for
Geoana. The only potential obstacle to an eventual
PSD-PD-UDMR coalition government Hrebenciuc suggested was the
fact that "Basescu has strong feelings" of antipathy toward
some UDMR leaders. Hrebenciuc, who was a key architect of
the PSD-UDMR alliance under the former PSD-led government,
suggested this hurdle could be overcome.


A Referendum? Not Likely
--------------

10. (C) Although both Basescu and Tariceanu have proposed a
referendum on whether to keep Romanian troops in Iraq, few
political insiders anticipate such a move any time soon.
Tariceanu confidante and PNL Minister Delegate for EU funds
Cristian David told PolChief it would take "at least a year"
to negotiate the wording of such a referendum, much less to
find resources for and to organize such a vote. Hrebenciuc
dismissed calls for a referendum as "a populist ploy likely
to go nowhere."


11. (C) Comment. Regardless of the PM's intentions, his June
29 proposal -- along with the ensuing political crisis -- has
now placed Romania's presence in Iraq at the center of public
debate. Several media outlets have published opinion polls
showing public opposition troops in Iraq at around 60
percent. PNL politicians have promised a parliamentary
debate on Romania's overseas troop commitments, which
ironically have enjoyed until now broad-based support from
all political parties except for the extreme nationalist
Greater Romania Party of Vadim Tudor. While the Prime
Minister's move has been criticized by many in the media as
ham-handed and self-interested, the fact remains that it will
put more political pressure on Basescu and his allies to
further advance discussions on troop "reconfigurations" or
adopt language to suggest that withdrawal timelines are in
the works. While analysts expect a reversal in Romania's
commitment to its strong strategic partnership with the U.S.,
the political logic vis a vis Romania's troop deployments has
shifted somewhat towards what we have seen in other countries
in the region. Over the weekend, one pundit memorably
described the escalating feud between the President and PM as
resembling the antics of cartoon characters Tom and Jerry.
It appears doubtful that Tariceanu, a poshly dressed
businessman who famously lacks the common touch, can come out
better with numbers in the polls for this gambit, especially
against a president who remains far ahead of any other
political leader. However, it remains in our interest, in
light of the PM's key role on other aspects of governmental
policy, to keep the dialogue as positive and productive as
possible, event as we quietly but firmly encourage him and
his allies to put this particular genie back in the bottle.
End comment.

TAUBMAN