EU "GYMNICH" MEETING: FUTURE OF W. BALKANS IS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000886

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM ETRD ZL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU "GYMNICH" MEETING: FUTURE OF W. BALKANS IS IN
THE EU BUT ROAD WILL BE LONG

Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reason 1.5 (b/d).


THIS IS A JOINT USEU - EMBASSY VIENNA MESSAGE.

SUMMARY
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1. (C) EU foreign ministers, in their informal "Gymnich"
formation, met with their Balkan and Turkish counterparts in
Salzburg March 11, issuing a joint press statement that
reaffirmed the European perspective for the region but noted
that the EU's absorption capacity has to be taken into
account when EU leaders debate enlargement strategy at the
June European Council. Ministers expressed full support for
Ahtisaari's efforts to find a negotiated solution on Kosovo's
final status and noted that full cooperation with ICTY
remains a condition for membership. They supported a free
trade area in the region building on the Central European
Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). According to contacts, the
French were particularly difficult in insisting on reference
to the EU's absorption capacity. Other issues reviewed at
the Gymnich reported septels. END SUMMARY

EU, BALKAN AND TURKISH FMs ISSUE JOINT STATEMENT
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2. (U) EU foreign ministers met with their counterparts from
the Western Balkans, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey March 11
during the EU informal ministerial ("Gymnich") in Salzburg.
All ministers agreed to a joint press statement (faxed to OPS
Center March 11 and e-mailed to EUR/ERA March 13) that
reaffirmed full support for the EU's Thessaloniki agenda
(which, in 2003, stressed the European perspective for the
region). The statement also expressed support for the EU's
Stabilization and Association Process for Balkan integration,
and confirmed that the future of the Western Balkans lies in
the EU. The statement added that a debate on enlargement
strategy is due in 2006 and noted that the EU's absorption
capacity has to be taken into account.

FULL COOPERATION WITH ICTY REMAINS A CONDITION
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3. (U) Ministers agreed that each country's progress toward
EU membership continues to depend on individual merits in
meeting Copenhagen criteria and Stabilization and Association
requirements, including full cooperation with ICTY. They
also noted that Western Balkan countries had made
considerable progress and must now increasingly focus on
adopting and implementing European standards. Participants
agreed on the importance of good neighborly relations and on
the need for finding mutually acceptable solutions to
outstanding issues with neighboring countries.

FULL SUPPORT FOR AHTISAARI
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4. (U) Ministers agreed that every effort should be made for
a negotiated settlement on Kosovo, mutually acceptable to the
parties, and expressed full support for Ahtisaari (who had
briefed the ministers the morning of March 11).

WELCOME COMMISSION'S MODEST PROPOSALS
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5. (U) Participants also welcomed the Commission's
communication, "The Western Balkans on the road to the EU,"
and expressed their intention to implement its
recommendations (visa facilitation, increased scholarships,
increased trade preferences for the region).

SUPPORT FOR REGIONAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
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6. (U) Ministers also encouraged "regional cooperation,
including a free trade area building on the Central European
Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA)." Enlargement Commissioner Rehn
said a regional Free Trade Agreement would boost trade and
investment in the region. He noted that Romania, as CEFTA's
chair, had invited interested parties to Bucharest on April 6
to discuss CEFTA's future.

THEMES ECHOED BY PLASSNIK, SOLANA, AND REHN
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7. (U) In a joint press conference at the end of the
Gymnich, Austrian FM Plassnik emphasized that, in reaffirming
the region's European perspective, the "goal is membership
and full integration of the region. There is no change to
the ultimate objective." That said, Plassnik added that
problems remain and must be addressed methodically. The
Gymnich discussions on the Western Balkans included an "open
and frank debate," that was not free of "criticism and some
frustration." The countries of the region must progressively
assume more responsibility for resolving their problems. The
road to membership will be "long and demanding," and only
with an "open and frank dialogue" will the EU and the region
achieve success. Plassnik noted that both the EU and
potential member states need to "do their homework,"
including on better explaining enlargement to European
publics.


8. (U) EU High Rep Solana and Enlargement Commissioner Rehn
offered more positive spins. Solana focused on the
tremendous progress in the region in the three years since
the Thessaloniki Summit, with Croatia and Macedonia now
candidate countries. He said there is an increasing sense of
a regional approach to issues. Solana also voiced full
support for Ahtisaari's efforts. Rehn observed that prospect
of EU membership was the major catalyst for reform, improved
rule of law, and a better economic climate in the region.
Rehn underscored that the EU has a big stake in Kosovo's
future, "as it won't be the fifty-first state of the U.S. but
will be part of the EU like the rest of the Balkans." He
stressed that the new Kosovar government should focus on
implementing standards immediately, concluding that political
stability in Kosovo is needed for a sustainable settlement.

BUT FRENCH AND OTHERS PRESS ABSORPTION CAPACITY
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9. (U) French FM Douste-Blazy, in a separate press
conference March 11, voiced support for Ahtisaari's efforts
and stressed that negotiations must cover concrete measures
on decentralization and protection of Serbian religious sites
and cultural patrimony. He noted that the EU is preparing
assistance for the police and the rule of law in Kosovo.
Douste-Blazy underscored that cooperation with ICTY from
Serbia and others was fundamental: "there is no question ...
there is no European perspective" without full cooperation.
While noting that EU FMs had underscored the European
perspective for the region, he also stressed that enlargement
must be discussed, including at the European Council in June,
in the context of Europe's absorption capacity. He reasoned
that this is important in obtaining the support of EU
citizens for enlargement, saying that one cannot "rush
headlong into enlargement without taking into account the
views of our people."


10. (C) An advisor to Rehn told us that the French,
Belgians, Dutch and Austrians pushed to refer specifically to
the EU's "absorption capacity" in the joint press statement.
An Austrian contact noted the priority Vienna places on the
Western Balkans and said that Vienna had not called for a
reference to absorption capacity. Given other member states'
lobbying, however, as well as Austria's call last year for a
reference to absorption capacity regarding Turkey, the
Austrians agreed, our contact explained. Some of the Balkan
ministers reportedly attempted to rebuff this inclusion, but
were pacified with the specific EU confirmation "that the
future of the Western Balkans lies in the European Union."
Our contact added that the French also insisted on further
review of possible visa facilitation for select groups of
travelers from the Western Balkans as well as an increase in
the Schengen visa fee. According to our contact, several
Balkan delegations pointed out that this could mean that
their citizens would pay more than Russians or Ukrainians for
EU visas. One senior Austrian diplomat quipped to us that it
appeared that the U.S. and Germany appeared more interested
in getting Serbia into the EU than did the French.


11. (C) A Council Secretariat official working on
enlargement characterized the French position to us as
pre-electoral posturing, adding that he expected Paris to
continue to take tougher stands on enlargement until at least
after the 2007 French national elections. That said, he
predicted that France would not cause difficulties for
Romania and Bulgaria if the Commission recommends in May that
they join the EU in 2007. Given the overall climate on
enlargement, however, accession negotiations will become
increasingly painstaking, our contact noted, with the EU
wanting to demonstrate that no country should take future
membership for granted. Croatian expectations that it might
enter in 2009, he added, may be overly optimistic,
particularly given the poor prospects of the constitutional
treaty.

COMMENT
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12. (C) The EU's "absorption capacity" is not new -- in
fact, it is part of the Copenhagen criteria for enlargement
adopted by the EU in 1993. What is relatively new is the
increased emphasis member states are placing on it when
discussing candidates for accession. The Austrians and the
French, with reported support from others, pushed for such
language in the run-up to the October 3, 2005 decision to
begin formal accession negotiations with Turkey. As part of
the Copenhagen criteria, it can be interpreted in many
different ways, which will allow any member state to question
whether the EU would benefit from bringing in a potential
member. The Salzburg Gymnich demonstrated that officials --
and not only in France -- are paying greater heed (or, at a
minimum, are trying to portray themselves as doing so) to the
need to view enlargement with a more critical pair of eyes.
The EU also needs to do a much better and pro-active job at
"educating" European publics about the successes of
enlargement, particularly regarding the 2004 wave. Until
that happens, we can expect further references to the EU's
absorption capacity. The Gymnich noted that the EU's door is
wide open to the Western Balkans and that member states want
the Western Balkan countries to pass through the door. The
threshold, however, likely will be higher as long as
enlargement becomes increasingly a domestic electoral issue
in member states.
GRAY
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