Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BRUSSELS4195
2006-12-21 09:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT

Tags:  BE PREL SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHBS #4195/01 3550919
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 210919Z DEC 06
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004195 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: BE PREL SU
SUBJECT: SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT
ACTIONABLE PLAN FOR DARFUR


Classified By: PolMinCouns Laurence Wohlers for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)
.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004195

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: BE PREL SU
SUBJECT: SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT
ACTIONABLE PLAN FOR DARFUR


Classified By: PolMinCouns Laurence Wohlers for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)
.

1.(C) Summary: In a Dec. 15 meeting, EU Foreign Policy Chief
Javier Solana told visiting Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew
Natsios the EU and US must stop making idle threats that
cannot be backed by action. He called for a new Darfur
strategy that is "visible, doable, and (then) done," and
pledged to come with several proposals when he visits
Washington January 3-5. Solana and Natsios agreed they face
daunting challenges including a lack of leverage with
President Bashir, who steadfastly refuses to accept UN
peacekeepers and makes deals with regional leaders that
effectively block them from acting against him. In a separate
meeting, EU Commissioner Louis Michel told Natsios he would
like to convene an EU-Arab summit to draw in Arab countries
as partners, and he would like to approach conflicts in the
Horn of Africa as an interconnected whole. Another EU
official suggested regular ministerial dialogues on Sudan
similar to those already taking place on Cote d'Ivoire, All
sides concurred that the end of UNSYG Kofi Annan's term could
leave an unfortunate global leadership void on the Darfur
issue. Michel, Solana, and Natsios agreed there are serious
management and corruption problems with the current AMIS
force, and that both the EU and US are running out of money
to continue AMIS funding. End Summary.

Current Situation Grim
--------------

2.(C) Natsios, stopping in Brussels on his way back from
Sudan, told EU leaders that conditions in Sudan have
deteriorated markedly since his last visit two months ago. He
said the US is committed to seeing outgoing UNSYG Annan's
Darfur plan implemented, but that plan is trapped in a
Catch-22. The Annan plan cannot be implemented without
President Bashir's acceptance of UN peacekeepers, but Bashir
would find it difficult to back down now from his public
refusal to accept the peacekeepers. Solana, the EU's High
Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, said
Bashir is ignoring the US and EU because they have made
repeated idle threats but have no real leverage to implement
them. He called for fresh approaches that are realistic and
look at all the regional pieces to the Darfur situation. Once

the USG labeled the killings in Darfur a genocide, it became
unconscionable not to seek solutions, Solana said.

Regional Players
--------------

3.(C) An overarching theme of Natsios's discussions with EU
officials concerned the role of regional players, many of
whom have been skillfully co-opted by Bashir. They include
Nigeria, where Bashir has reportedly told President Obasanjo
he will stay out of Nigerian politics if Obasanjo stays out
of Sudanese affairs, Natsios said. Bashir reportedly told
African Union (AU) President Konare that northern Mali could
become an outpost for radicals and terrorists if the AU
intervenes against Bashir's wishes in Sudan, said Natsios.
Bashir is currently president of the Arab League and has used
that position to focus the attention of Arab countries on the
Middle East and away from Sudan. Even in tiny Burundi, the
president of the party is a powerful Muslim who has forged
close relations with the leaders of Sudan, Iran, and Chad,
and threatens the power of President Ndayizeye on a daily
basis, Michel said. Chad and Libya also wield important
influence in Darfur, Natsios said. Meanwhile, on the economic
front, China continues to work closely with Sudan while
refusing to engage in any political discussions about human
rights or protection of civilians. Adding all these pieces
together, the question becomes whether the US and EU are
relevant to Bashir's view of Sudan and whether he has any
incentive to listen.

Getting Bashir's Attention
--------------

4.(C) Solana and Michel, meeting separately with Natsios,
said one roadblock to Bashir's cooperation has been Bashir's
belief that the EU and US are seeking regime change in Sudan.
Natsios said the US administration is not seeking regime
change, but some members of Congress, as well as NGOs,
including the International Crisis Group, have called for
regime change, making Bashir reluctant to believe the
official USG position. Michel suggested the way to get Bashir

BRUSSELS 00004195 002 OF 002


to listen is to talk concretely about Bashir's future and the
future of Sudan. Bashir fears that UN peacekeepers will
arrest Sudanese leaders and turn them over to the
International Criminal Court (ICC). Natsios said Secretary
Rice has tried to turn that argument on its head by saying
the US could turn over all evidence of war crimes to the ICC
unless Bashir allows UN peacekeepers into Sudan.


5. (C) At President Bashir's request, Natsios said he agreed
to support a UNSC Presidential Statement (PRST) reaffirming
the Abuja and Addis framework agreements. More radical
leverage points, including implementation of a no-fly zone
over Sudan, blocking the Port of Sudan, and initiating
petroleum sanctions were discussed by Natsios and EU
officials as possible, but at the moment unlikely, options.
Natsios said the US may be willing to use more coercive
measures, but not unilaterally. All sides lamented the end of
Annan's term as UNSYG, saying it will take time for the new
SYG to reach Annan's level of familiarity with the players
and issues. Michel believes there is room to engage Arab
countries on Sudan if the EU and US talk to them as serious
and trusted partners. He would like to convene an EU-Arab
summit, but said he would likely encounter resistance from
some EU member states. Natsios said President Bush has called
President Mubarak seeking support on resolving Darfur but has
seen little result.

Poor Management of AMIS
--------------

6.(C) In addition to the political problems, Natsios and EU
officials agreed there are serious management problems with
the current AMIS force, including rampant corruption and lack
of professionalism. Much of the money given by the US and EU
is simply unaccounted for. Natsios urged EU officials to
continue calling for the replacement of AMIS Force Commander
Major General Luke Aprezi, despite resistance from his home
country of Nigeria. Michel said he has raised it with Konare
several times, but Aprezi remains in place. Both Natsios and
EU officials said their governments are running out of money
to continue funding AMIS. The US has about $20 million left,
but may find the new Democrat-controlled Congress unwilling
to approve further allocations given existing corruption.
Solana and Michel said they face similar problems convincing
the public that more money for AMIS is money well spent.
Natsios said he is looking into the possibility of disbursing
the funds through the UN system so that it would face
stricter accounting controls.

Next Steps
--------------


7. (C) Koen Vervaeke, a Solana advisor on Africa policy,
suggested regular ministerial meetings on Sudan along the
lines of monthly ministerials that take place on issues in
Cote d'Ivoire. He said there has been a high level of
participation from African ministers as well as the
international community, and the meetings have been very
useful. Solana said he and his advisors will brainstorm in
the next couple of weeks and come to Washington January 3-5
with some proposals for a joint US-EU strategy on Darfur.

MCKINLEY
.

.