Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BRATISLAVA966
2006-12-14 17:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR'S DECEMBER 13 MEETING WITH PRIME

Tags:  PREL POLG ECON ENRG AF LO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000966 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016
TAGS: PREL POLG ECON ENRG AF LO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DECEMBER 13 MEETING WITH PRIME
MINISTER FICO

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000966

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016
TAGS: PREL POLG ECON ENRG AF LO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DECEMBER 13 MEETING WITH PRIME
MINISTER FICO

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Fico told the Ambassador
December 13 that:
--he will travel to Afghanistan in January and announce that
Slovak troops will move to Kandahar,
--he is in firm control of the government; and coalition
partners Meciar and Slota are just sideshows, and
--he is determined to keep the economy strong, and impending
changes to the labor code will not hurt investors. Fico is a
consummate politician who many times in the past promised us
what we wanted to hear on foreign policy issues and then not
followed through. On the other hand, he has also told the UK
Ambassador that she would be very happy with the final
decision on Kandahar, and so we have some new optimism that
Slovakia will respond favorably to the NATO request. Fico
did nothing to dampen the image that he runs a "one-man
government," but given his coalition partners, that may not
be a bad thing. End summary.

Strong on the Budget, Strong in the Polls
--------------

2. (C) At an hour-long, one-on-one meeting with the
Ambassador December 13, Prime Minister Robert Fico was
clearly in a good mood after his budget had passed along
party lines earlier in the week. He noted that the
opposition was completely baffled over how to oppose the
budget since it kept Slovakia on track for the Euro, did not
present any dramatic changes, and promised a number of
goodies consistent with his vision of a social democratic
state. He took pains to note how the people he met on the
campaign trail during the run-up to the mayoral elections
understood that he could not do all he promised but the fact
that he was doing something engendered considerable goodwill.
He specifically singled out the Christmas bonus to
pensioners as something entire families were talking about at
this special time of year. He let the Ambassador know that
Friday poll releases will show Smer holding strong with
preference ratings above 40%.

Health, Future Plans
--------------

3. (C) Fico stated clearly that he would not be a candidate

for PM in 2010. He is tired after 16 years in politics and
was sure he could find something to do. He said, "You know I
am a criminal lawyer, and there are a lot of criminals in
Slovakia." By making this clear, there is no challenge to
his leadership in the party, unlike the problems within KDH
and, he believes, within SDKU. "I don't want to end my
career like Dzurinda." On his health, he noted that his
swings in blood pressure continue but his condition is much
improved because he insists on working out daily, pointing
out soccer, hockey and swimming activities in the last three
days. (Comment: Fico is a political animal. We cannot take
for granted that he would refuse to run again. End comment.)


Meciar and His Friends of Ill Repute
-------------- -

4. (C) The Ambassador asked about HZDS leader Vladimir Meciar
and reports of intra-coalition tensions. The PM shrugged,
and responded that Meciar only wants parliamentary immunity
and money, noting that this was now a family affair as
Meciar,s son was returning to Slovakia to "build a big house
on a big plot like Electra (Meciar,s own opulent
residence)." Regarding Meciar's continued focus on people
and things that remind all of his murky past, Fico noted that
Meciar was taking care of friends. Meciar had even tried to
convince Fico to apologize on behalf of Slovakia to former
SIS-boss Ivan Lexa (notorious for blatant misuse of his
office in the 1990s) in exchange for getting Lexa to drop
his suit in front of the European Court of Human Rights.
Fico refused.


5. (C) Fico believes Meciar has no other option to stay in
the government. Fico said he will continue to tolerate
Meciar,s games because he believes they don,t undermine his
own essential control of the government. Fico noted that the
debate over Rezes, Urban, and even Lexa (Meciar's corrupt
cronies for whom he has obtained positions in government or
on boards of government-controlled companies) were sideshows
while Fico,s ministers dominate essential governmental
functions. KDH is so split that Meciar has no option to go
with Dzurinda, and if they did, KDH and HZDS would both be
decimated in early elections. Slovak National Party (SNS)
leader Jan Slota is "wealthy beyond imagination" and only
cares about financial matters, so he will continue to provide
coalition stability. He lost the Zilina election because he
was napping and didn,t pay attention to organizing.


Afghanistan
--------------

6. (C) The Ambassador delivered a tough message on
Afghanistan. He said that Fico,s concept of deployment of
Slovak forces only when there was no danger made a mockery
out of the alliance, and that NATO should not have to wait
six months for a response to a redeployment request. He told
Fico that our patience had run out, and that he had prepared
a critical speech for Thursday's public conference on NATO
and Global Security, which we would rather modify if Fico
could show us he was coming around to our position. The
Ambassador also noted that President Gasporovic had asked
that the Ambassador deliver the information that the
president concurred with our message of needing to meet
one,s obligations within NATO. The Ambassador pointed out
that all the government's talk about needing more force
protection was a red herring because the Dutch, Canadians,
and British had all offered protection equal to that given to
their own troops. He further argued that what Afghanistan
needed was more roads, precisely the thing Slovak troops were
trained and equipped to provide.


7. (C) Fico responded that just as important as NATO
commitments were the sentiments of Slovak voters. The
Ambassador answered that at some point Fico needed to be more
of a statesman and less of a poll reader.


8. (C) Smiling, Fico responded that Slovakia would indeed
move the engineers to Kandahar, but the announcement would
follow a trip to Kandahar so that he could personally see the
situation on the ground. He invited the Ambassador to
accompany him. The trip would be in late January and the
announcement would be either in Kandahar or upon return to
Slovakia. (Note: Obviously the trip is about political
optics since he was clear he has made his decision).

Possible Trip to the U.S.
--------------

9. (C) Fico said he was inclined to accept the US Chamber of
Commerce's invitation to speak to the Chamber in Washington
in January. The Ambassador noted that with such short notice
it would be difficult to arrange high level USG meetings, but
we would do our best. (Note: The local AmCham told us the
Chamber invitation was not pegged to a specific date. The
desire for January seems to have been the PM's.)

Belarus
--------------

10. (C) The Ambassador told Fico that we had urged the Slovak
NGO Pontis Foundation to invite him to meet Milinkevich, and
that they had not done so, to our disappointment. Yes, he
replied, "nobody should be in a position to criticize my
government (as Pontis had) when they failed to offer any
invitation; I would have met with him." (Comment: MFA
contacts told us they had passed an invitation to Fico to
meet with Milinkevich, but had received a negative response.
We cannot yet confirm which story is correct.) Fico noted
that Slovak Belarus policy would follow the EU, that he
supported FM Jan Kubis's V4 and Baltic Belarus initiative
(including a commitment to push the EU to help the opposition
and civil society generally--septel),but that he thinks
engagement with Belarus should not just be with the
opposition. Belarus, he noted, is not ripe for an
ORANGE-like revolution. In his visit five years ago he
discovered that with average Belarussians Lukashenko was very
popular. He thinks that while the election was fixed,
Lukashenko still had the support of the majority of the
people.

Relations with NGOs
--------------

11. (C) The Ambassador asked why the government had picked a
fight with Slovakia's excellent NGOs over the 2% tax
setaside. Fico explained that it had started as a budget
item, but the political pressure from civicl society was
acute, and he responded to that pressure. He insisted
everything was fine now, and the GOS would work with NGOs on
a plan for the future. (Comment: We will monitor closely and
weigh in as necessary.) The Ambassador noted the irony of
Meciar being the white horse riding to the rescue of the
NGOs. Fico responded that he surely has a financial deall
with SPP, the Slovak gas company which funneled a lot of
"charity" money to its own foundation.

Upcoming Travels
--------------

12. (C) Fico disclosed spring travel plans to Libya (to push
a service contract for a Trencin airplane service company),
Britain (to meet with Blair in January or February),

Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (there are many old Czechoslovak
business ties there),as well as to as many of his EU
partners as possible.

Labor Code
--------------

13. (C) The Ambassador asked about Fico's intentions on the
sensitive topic of dramatic changes to the labor code, which
the Smer-led Labor Ministry is rumored to be developing.
Fico said, "There is no reason to panic. Do you think I
would endanger this economy, which can fund my social vision,
by driving the foreign investment away? Yes, there will be
changes, and yes we have a compact with the Trade Unions, but
I will not submit something to the parliament until there is
TRIPARTA, that is Latin you know, agreement between the
government, employees, and employers. This will be very
much like my budget; in the end the opposition will have
nothing to attack. I will, however, return employees to a
time when they can refuse to work for safety reasons; that
would have prevented the mining tragedy (in Novaky, in which
three miners perished)." The Ambassador urged dialogue with
the Embassy and the AmCham as part of the process.

Comment:
--------------

14. (C) Fico has a track record of telling people what they
want to hear, but he was clear to the Ambassador that he was
willing to go along with the move to Kandahar. He has also
whispered to the British Ambassador that she would be pleased
when he announced his final decision. We have new optimism
that he will respond favorably to NATO's request to move
troops to Kandahar. Fico gave the impression of being firmly
in control of the reins of government, doing nothing to
dispel the image he is a one-man show. On the other hand,
the alternative would be considerably more power for Slota
and Meciar, an unacceptable alternative internationally.
VALLEE