FICO SAYS NO TO TROOPS TO KANDAHAR, FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000935

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2011
TAGS: AF LO MARR MOPS NATO PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: FICO SAYS NO TO TROOPS TO KANDAHAR, FOR NOW

REF: BRATISLAVA 921 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman, for reason 1.4 b and d.


1. (U) Prime Minister Robert Fico announced to the media
November 29 that, so far, neither the security nor technical
conditions have been met to allow Slovak engineering troops
to redeploy to southern Afghanistan. Fico added that the
Slovak troops were not "mountain rifle fighters who could
participate in armed actions." However, if conditions
changed, especially security conditions, the government would
reevaluate its decision before the end of March 2007. Fico's
announcement was largely criticized in the press and by
opposition politicians, with headlines implying that Slovakia
is embarrassing itself by not living up to its NATO
responsibilities.


2. (C) Fico made the statement while President Gasparovic
DefMin Kasicky and FM Kubis were still flying back from Riga,
where they had told the media simply that Slovakia likely
would not make a decision until March. MFA sources told DCM
prior to Fico,s statement that Kubis had had not been able
to bring Fico around on the issue during an 11/28 meeting in
Bratislava. Nonetheless, Kubis and Gasparovic were not
expecting such an announcement by the PM. Moreover, sources
within both the MFA and the MOD have told us that the
British, Dutch and Canadian governments and militaries had
offered a very good set of security services/assurances (in
the words of Kubis,s chef de cabinet, "the same protection
the Brits give to their own units"),and that the GOS was
seeking no more security assistance/assurances. Fico still
opposed the move. It is not clear from Fico,s statement
whether he is theoretically requiring more help from other
forces, or a change to greater security pervading in southern
before he is willing to change his mind. This stance,
combined with the PM,s comment last week that Slovak troops
should not be deployed overseas in areas they would be in
harm,s way, obviously make us wonder whether the
conditionality Fico spoke of today could ever be met.


3. (C) The Ambassador spoke to FM Kubis late 11/29 upon his
arrival back from Riga. Kubis had been surprised by FIco's
announcement, but told the Ambassador that Fico had not made
a final decision on the redeployment issue. He and
Gasparovic had also gotten Fico to agree to leave open other
options, including augmenting the current force in Kabul.
Ambassador pointed out the disingenuousness of Fico's
"mountain rifles" statement (engineers had been requested)
and the availability of security forces for the mission.
Kubis responded, with frustration, that we should expect more
misleading rhetoric from the PM in the future, even though
the door was still very much open. We do not yet know
whether the PM's latest statements indicate a change in
Slovak intentions to participate in a northern PRT, perhaps
with the Czechs.

A Precedent for other Deployments, or a "One-Off?"


4. (C) Fico's voice is virtually a minority of one in not
wanting to deploy the troops south, but ultimately the only
one that counts. We will continue to push the PM his
coalition partners, particularly HZDS, to change his view and
to provide more support to the Afghanistan effort. FM Kubis
recognizes that the PM's remarks potentially set a dangerous
precedent, and says he will continue the fight. The
Ambassador will engage President Gasparovic for further help.
DefMin Kasicky seems to go along with whatever Fico wants.
Of late, Fico has been preoccupied with campaigning for Smer
candidates in the Dec. 2 local elections, and perhaps thought
his announcement would garner votes (a far-fetched theory,
for no Slovak voter is linking local garbage pickup and
Afghanistan). On the other hand, by February/March,
elections will be long past and and the PM may view voter
support as a non-issue. While the public is negative on
Iraq, it is largely apathetic on foreign affairs and
Afghanistan has never been an issue, so Fico may really be
basing his decisions on long-standing personal convictions
and a vision of Slovakia as a small, inward-looking country
that does not need to involve itself outside Europe. The
fact that he feels most comfortable with the Slovak National
Party as a coalition partner speaks not just to practical
matters of governing, but to Fico's own nationalist
tendencies. He has stated that Slovak policy has been too
oriented toward the West, at the expense of good relations
with the East (Russia). Changing this approach will take
more than moral and logical arguments: marshalling others to
tell Fico that he risks needless harm to his country's
international reputation, while trying to trigger a sense of
statesmanship in the PM himself.
VALLEE