SLOVAK FM DELIVERS BLUNT MESSAGES TO SERBS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000746

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2106
TAGS: PREL PINR ICTY SR YI LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAK FM DELIVERS BLUNT MESSAGES TO SERBS AND
KOSOVARS

REF: STATE 146343

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary: During his recent visit to the Western
Balkans, FM Jan Kubis told interlocutors in Belgrade that
they must stop fooling themselves and the public; the train
has left the station and the last stop is independence for
Kosovo. He was similarly blunt with leaders in Kosovo,
encouraging them to demonstrate political maturity and offer
Kosovo Serbs the most attractive possible arrangement so they
see a future for themselves in Kosovo. On ICTY cooperation,
Slovakia believes that there has never been a more favorable
atmosphere for apprehending Mladic. However, the most likely
scenario is that foreign security forces must find and arrest
him, as Kostunica has a mental block that prevents him from
taking the steps urged by the international community (reftel
demarche). The Slovak government will host a brainstorming
session with private Serbs in Belgrade on September 8 on what
incentives the EU might offer Serbia, and how to encourage
democratic forces there. The GOS has invited Kostunica to
Bratislava in October. End Summary.

Serbs, Stop Fooling Yourselves
--------------


2. (C) Slovak MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak gave the
Ambassador a readout on September 6 of Foreign Minister Jan
Kubis' August 21-23 visit to Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo.
He also gave the Ambassador a written report on the visit
(faxed to the Slovakia desk). Lajcak stressed that Kubis
gave very firm, clear messages in both Belgrade and Pristina,
and that Slovakia fully supports Ahtisaari and the guiding
principles of the contact group. Slovakia expects that a
UNSC resolution on Kosovo status will be passed during its
term on the UNSC. To the Serbs, Kubis' message was "stop
fooling yourselves." He said the train had left the station,
and the end of the journey was independence for Kosovo. The
Serbs must concentrate their efforts on real life issues and
getting the best deal possible. Kubis also criticized the
Serbs for giving messages to their public which were exactly
the opposite of what they heard from their international
partners, and intentionally misleading public expectations
about Kosovo.


3. (C) Lajcak, a former Ambassador to Belgrade, said the
Serbs were very surprised to hear such a clear message. He
said former minister Kukan never spoke so openly. The Slovak
position has not changed, but has been streamlined under
Kubis's leadership. Lajcak emphasized that Slovakia was not
trying to negotiate; that is Ahtisaari's job. On the other
hand, the Serbs trust the Slovaks and know they are trying to
help, and this allows Slovakia to be blunt.


4. (C) Lajcak said Belgrade interlocutors responded that
within five to seven years of independence, there would be no
more Serbs living in Kosovo. There would be more violence
and regional conflict. Lajcak said Belgrade was capable of
pushing Kosovar Serbs to come to Serbia just to prove that
the international community was wrong; this is the Serbian
mentality. Belgrade simply does not want to see a successful
process.

Kosovars, Be Better than Standard
--------------


5. (C) Kubis's key message in Kosovo was that it was time for
Kosovars to show their unity and reach out to Kosovo Serbs,
by making them feel secure and believe they have a future in
Kosovo. Kubis emphasized that "European standards" for
minorities in Kosovo simply were not good enough. The Serbs
are a "special" minority in Kosovo. The Kosovars should show
that they have an "extra-quality ticket" for the Serbs, which
no one will question. Just as the Montenegrins accepted the
55 percent referendum threshhold as going beyond European
standards, Kubis submitted to the Kosovars, so must the
Kosovars go beyond simple tough negotiating positions.
Although Slovakia in general is not supportive of collective
rights for minorities, they would support collective rights
of Serbs in Kosovo. Lajcak said it was crucial for the
Kosovar Albanians and the International Community to offer
something to the Serbs, who are not swayed by the prospect of
NATO and EU membership. We must keep the pressure on
Pristina, because if the Kosovar Albanians are not generous
enough, everyone will lose.

ICTY Cooperation
--------------

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6. (C) The Ambassador and Lajcak discussed Serbia's ICTY
cooperation, per points in reftel. Lajcak said there has
never been a better atmosphere in favor of cooperation. It
is clear that voluntary surrender is not an option and
therefore Mladic must be apprehended. One big stumbling
block is Kostunica, who is completely blocked by his own
personal hang-ups from being able to take the steps we are
pushing. He sees Mladic as a hero. Kostunica thinks more
about how history will portray him than about practical
politics. He would rather have a disaster, as long as
history books write that he fought to the end and never gave
in. Although intellectually he understands that Mladic must
be apprehended, he is not psychologically prepared to
surrender him. Lajcak explained, "We like Kostunica, he is
honest and clean. But for real politics he is a difficult
partner, completely inflexible." Lajcak believes the only
way to catch Mladic will be for another country's forces to
find him and arrest him, with no intelligence leaks.

Next Steps
--------------


7. (C) Slovakia has invited Kostunica to visit sometime in
October. Lajcak said the EU is aware it must encourage
democratic forces in Serbia who want a realistic solution,
and that it must offer a comprehensive package of incentives.
The problem is that no matter how generous the package is,
it will be seen as a consolation prize for the loss of
Kosovo, and that loss cannot be compensated by any amount of
money. On September 8, Lajcak will return to Belgrade for a
brainstorming session with 30 intellectuals, journalists, and
civil society leaders on how to encourage democratic forces
and what the EU can do.
VALLEE