AMBASSADOR'S BREAKFAST WITH KDH CHAIRMAN PAVOL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000607

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR LO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S BREAKFAST WITH KDH CHAIRMAN PAVOL
HRUSOVSKY

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 601


B. BRATISLAVA 594

C. BRATISLAVA 592

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met with Chairman of the
Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) Pavol Hrusovsky on July
25 to discuss KDH's post-election prospects. Despite a poor
showing in the June 17 parliamentary election, Hrusovsky
appeared confident that KDH would remain a major player in
the Slovak political scene and a strong figure in the
opposition. He expressed frustration at internal party
conflicts (refB),but maintained hope that the party would
reach an agreement on what direction to follow. Hrusovsky
did not hold high expectations for Fico's government,
predicting problems between the controversial leaders,
corruption allegations for Smer, and the disintegration of
the ruling coalition within the year. In such a scenario,
HZDS would dispose of Meciar, and then a 3-plus-1 coalition
would be acceptable to KDH. END SUMMARY.

HRUSOVSKY CONFIDENT IN FAITHFULNESS OF VOTERS
--------------

2. (C) At a two-hour breakfast hosted at the Ambassador's
residence, KDH Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky reflected on the
disappointing results of the June 17 parliamentary election,
in which his party received the lowest percentage of votes
among the parties entering Parliament, at 8.31 percent
(refA). Hrusovsky attributed the lack of electoral success
to KDH's decision to prematurely exit the government in
February, leaving then-PM Mikulas Dzurinda the sole position
to claim the mantel of reform. Hrusovsky blamed that
decision on recently-resigned Deputy Chairmen Frantisek
Miklosko and Vladimir Palko. Nonetheless, he continues to be
optimistic, as KDH was only one seat short of its performance
in the previous elections. Furthermore, KDH remains the only
party to claim socially-conservative voters, who Hrusovsky
claimed would "never leave the party."

THESE PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO BE IN COALITION WITH ANYBODY
-------------- --------------

3. (C) Hrusovsky remained frustrated by the "principled
faction" (refB) of KDH -- made up of recently-resigned
leaders Vladimir Palko, Daniel Lipsic, Frantisek Miklosko,
Rudolf Bauer, and Pavol Minarik -- and their inflexibility:
"These people don't want to be in coalition with anyone: not
Dzurinda, not Fico, not Meciar, not Slota. It is crazy."
Still, Hrusovsky retained some hope of reaching an agreement,
as former Justice Minister Lipsic showed some willingness to
bend, and Bauer would go "which way he was told."
Hrusovsky's biggest challenge was to get the five dissenters
to find a common position "in the emergency that could result
from the break-up of the coalition" -- which he thinks will
happen as a result of the democratic-backsliding of coalition
partner Vladimir Meciar, and to a lesser extent, the
offensive outbursts of third coalition partner Jan Slota.
Although Hrusovsky professed not yet to understand what was
motivating Palko and his faction, he planned to use the time
before the next Party Congress to reach out and hear their
concerns.

MECIAR STILL UNACCEPTABLE TO KDH
--------------

4. (C) Any hope from Dzurinda that KDH might still be coaxed
to accept Meciar (refC) seemed dim, especially given the
venom between Meciar and Hrusovsky. Apparently rumors had
been circulating during coalition talks that HZDS would oust
Meciar. KDH's hesitance to join a coalition with Smer had
not been so much out of reluctance to work with the leftist
party, but rather out of hopes for a 3-plus-1 coalition that
excluded Meciar.


5. (C) Although Hrusovsky acknowledged the fact that Meciar
had honored his commitments to the Dzurinda government over
the past three years, he maintained that these were deals
where Dzurinda had had something, such as a hospital
privatization, to offer Meciar. It was for this reason that
Hrusovsky considered Meciar so dangerous: "How can you trust
a guy who was negotiating with Dzurinda one hour before he
and Fico were to sign the coalition agreement?" Hrusovsky
believed Meciar would jump to a 3-plus-one coalition at any
moment just to get an additional ministry, and has supported
the U.S. and the Slovak mission in Iraq as a way to win
international acceptance.


6. (C) Hrusovsky believed that Meciar did not care for the
money ministries since all his cronies had already profited
during his eight years as PM in the 1990s. Instead, he opted
for the power-Ministry of Justice and the Slovak Information
Service (SIS). The HZDS party structure was upset with

Meciar because his focus on a ministry designed for his own
self-protection prevented greater spoils going to his party
faithful. Hrusovsky predicted that Meciar would use new
Justice Minister Stefan Harabin to systematically disassemble
the Ministry and western standards of prosecutorial
jurisprudence: "Meciar will control investigations from the
moment they start until the moment they are finished."
(Comment: Other interlocutors have told us Meciar appointed
Harabin as Minister of Justice mostly to take revenge on KDH.
End comment.) According to Hrusovsky, proposed deputy
director of the Slovak Information Service Igor Urban (still
unconfirmed) was and is a front for Ivan Lexa. (Note: Lexa
was SIS boss under Meciar and has been charged of multiple
crimes including the abduction of the then-president's son,
and the death of a witness in the case. He has never been
convicted, due both to poor prosecution and alleged court
corruption. Meciar has made public statements calling for
Lexa's rehabilitation. End comment.) The Ambassador asked
if former-Justice Minister Lipsic now understood that KDH,s
stance on "principle" had real consequences in the ministry
he had built? Hrusovsky responded, "Yes, more than one
person at the party conference made that point."


7. (C) In spite of Hrusovsky's distrust of Meciar, KDH could
someday accept HZDS as long as its Chairman was ousted.
However, this seems unlikely any time in the near future, as
no one has discovered a way to knock Meciar overboard without
being knocked into the waves first.

FORMER COALITION REMAINS UNITED IN THE OPPOSITION
-------------- --------------

8. (C) Dzurinda's SDKU and the Party of the Hungarian
Coalition (SMK) remain strong allies of KDH. The three stand
together on several ssues, particularly reform, foreign
policy, and the protection of freedom in Slovakia. Hrusovsky
reassured the Ambassador that SDKU, SMK, and KDH continued to
support the USG on Iraq. (COMMENT: Hrusovsky did not seem to
think Fico would go against the U.S. in his foreign policy.
END COMMENT.) As the opposition in Parliament, the three
parties stand ready to blow the whistle on any suspicious
business in the Meciar-controlled Ministry of Justice.


9. (C) Hrusovsky's only area of concern was nationalist
tension between SMK and SNS. He feared SMK extremists would
take SNS Chairman Jan Slota,s bait, and there were several
Hungarian nationalist issues which KDH could not support,
such as demands for autonomy in southern regions. However,
Hrusovsky did not see any obstacles to working with SDKU and
former-PM Dzurinda. Although there has been competition
between the two parties in the past, there were defining
lines between them which would make it impossible for them to
steal each other's voters. SDKU had a strong economic
program, while KDH boasted its social program. Hrusovsky
hopes to appeal to Fico's voters with KDH's social program.

HRUSOVSKY'S PREDICTIONS FOR FICO'S GOVERNMENT
--------------

10. (C) Hrusovsky did not hold high expectations for Fico's
government, predicting problems between the controversial
leaders, corruption scandals for Smer, and the eventual
disintegration of the ruling coaltion. Regarding former
HZDS-turned-Smer "businessmen" who may cause corruption
problems for the new government, he said Vladimir Poor and
Jan Gabriel have already had their past examined and they are
known damaged quantities. Businessman Juraj Siroky is
another matter. There is a real chance that Siroky will be
dragged into the Harvard tunneling scandal in the court
system in the Czech Republic -- with new revelations likely
to damage Fico. Hrusovsky recommended the Ambassador should
not meet with Meciar nor with Slota, noting, "Meciar is not
reformed and Slota would only insult you."


VALLEE