SLOVAKIA'S POST-ELECTION STATE OF MIND

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA'S POST-ELECTION STATE OF MIND

REF: BRATISLAVA 594

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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE TREAT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The June 17 parliamentary elections were
characterized by low voter turnout: 54.67 percent. Robert Fico's
Smer was the clear winner across Slovakia, taking 29.14 percent and
five of Slovakia's eight regions. Mikulas Dzurinda's SDKU only won
the Bratislava region, but it was pleasantly surprised at its
best-ever showing. SDKU voters cast more preferential votes for
former Labor Minister Iveta Radicova and former Finance Minister
Ivan Miklos than for Dzurinda. Over a month after the election, the
majority of Slovakia seems to be pleased with the results, including
Fico's choice of coalition partners. SNS witnessed an increase in
its popularity, while former opposition parties ANO, KSS, and Free
Forum were disappointed after failing to achieve the five percent
necessary to receive seats in Parliament. After dropping out of the
ruling coalition in February, KDH got the lowest percentage of votes
of the parties that have made it to Parliament. Although HZDS is
happy to be a partner in the governing coalition, it was shocked to
earn only about a half of the votes originally expected. The low
voter turnout of this election may prove to be a regular trend in
Slovakia, as the electorate has become tired of reform and
disinterested in politics. However, the election also signals a
stabilization of Slovak politics, in which the number of political
parties is tapering off. END SUMMARY.

EVERYONE BUT BRATISLAVA ELITE PLEASED WITH RESULTS
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2. (U) With 29.14 percent of the vote, Smer was the clear winner in
the June 17 parliamentary elections. The party won five of
Slovakia's eight regions. In the eastern regions of Kosice, Presov,
and Banska Bystrica -- where unemployment is high and the benefits
of reform have yet to be felt -- Smer was the victor, with over two
times greater support than SDKU in the Presov and Banska Bystrica
regions. The Bratislava region was SDKU's only stronghold, where it
won 36.1 percent of the vote, and Smer won 21.4 percent.


3. (SBU) According to sociologists, recent polls, and our own
personal observations, over a month after parliamentary elections
the majority of Slovaks are content with the results, including
Smer's choice of coalition partners SNS and HZDS. Intellectuals,
entrepreneurs, and urban dwellers in Bratislava seem to be the only
ones with grave reservations about the new government. Their
largest fear is what some call the "devastation" of Slovakia's image
abroad, although several Embassy contacts in the academic community
have admitted that the situation in Slovakia will not be as bad as
Smer's opponents are predicting.


4. (SBU) Fico and Smer have received criticism from Slovakia's left
for not being "true leftists" and now even more so for forming a
government with HZDS and SNS. Former President of the Young
Democratic Left (MDL) Ivan Stefunko has said that it is "not enough
to call yourself a social democrat; you need to act on it and choose
your friends accordingly," referring to Smer's choice of coalition
partners. Nevertheless, Stefunko and other leftists are optimistic:
"[Smer's] politics doesn't have to be a catastrophe as long as from
the beginning the party forms its policies on the basis of what
Anglo-Saxons call a 'proper policy-making process.'"

PLEASANT SURPRISES FOR SDKU
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5. (U) Although Smer was the clear winner of the elections at a
total of 29.14 percent, SDKU was pleasantly surprised to have
reached 18.35 percent, surpassing its result in the 2002 election
and gaining three additional seats in Parliament. The party far
surpassed pre-elections polls, which had predicted SDKU would win a
mere 13 percent. Internal party polls had predicted 17 to 18
percent, but the campaign staff hadn't believed them. Chairman
Mikulas Dzurinda told the daily Sme that he attributed the positive
outcome to a "good campaign" and the fact that the party had "proven
itself to the people."


6. (SBU) A recent amendment to the Election Act affected the power
of preferential votes. According to the Central Election
Commission, preferential votes helped seven candidates from low
positions on party lists to make it to Parliament. Preferential
votes catapulted Labor Minister Iveta Radicova from her original
third position on the SDKU list to the very top. After the
preferential votes were counted, SDKU's number one Mikulas Dzurinda
fell to the third spot, behind Finance Minister Ivan Miklos.
Radicova told the daily Sme that she did not think Dzurinda could
perceive her success as a threat, and SDKU insiders say that the
surprisingly strong election result solidified his leadership
position. However, as Slovakia's PM for the past eight years -- a
period characterized by much perceived corruption -- Dzurinda was
found to be Slovakia's "least trusted politician" in a recent public
opinion poll.

SLOTA HAS REASON TO CELEBRATE
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7. (SBU) Although the Slovak National Party (SNS) remains a

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relatively small party, its increased influence is noticeable,
having risen to 11.73 percent in the June election and following
Smer or SDKU by only a few percentage points in several regions.
The majority of this xenophobic party's votes came from first-time
voters. Its largest support came from Chairman Jan Slota's home
region of Zilina, at 18.8 percent -- second only to Smer. The party
had been split into two factions -- SNS and PSNS -- during the 2002
parliamentary elections, preventing either side from gaining the
minimum five percent to reach Parliament. Since then, the reunited
party has built strength by putting the blame on the Party of the
Hungarian Coalition (SMK) whenever Dzurinda's government faltered.
In addition, SNS picked up defectors from Meciar's HZDS who opposed
a potential SDKU-HZDS coalition.


8. (U) The day after the election, Slota took great pride in the
fact that his party had beat SMK -- which had earned 11.68 percent
of the vote -- by a whole 0.07 percent. SMK's strength -- followed
closely by Smer -- came from the southern regions of Trnava and
Nitra, where the populations are largely Hungarian,
agriculturally-based, and lower to middle class.

SOME PARTIES SHOCKED BY ELECTION RESULTS
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9. (SBU) The defeat of Free Forum -- which had consistently polled
over five percent in pre-election polls -- came as a surprise to
many, with the party earning a mere 3.47 percent in the actual
elections. Pre-election reports had shown that many Slovaks did not
know for whom they would vote until they entered polling stations on
election day; if this was, in fact, the case, then it appears that
last-minute pragmatism motivated Free Forum supporters to vote for
the larger and stronger SDKU in order to counter leftist Smer. The
daily Pravda reported that the unsuccessful campaign of Free Forum
had, in fact, helped SDKU. In a recent interview, Free Forum
Chairwoman Zuzana Martinakova told the press that she had most
feared Meciar's inclusion in the government and had hoped her
party's strength would outweigh his. "Perhaps today the parties
that had tried to prevent Free Forum's success are saying to
themselves that they should have let us be," said Martinakova.


10. (U) Although Meciar's HZDS is delighted to have been included
in the governing coalition, the party was disillusioned by its
election results. HZDS received the highest percentage of valid
votes cast in the 2002 elections at 19.5 percent. Leading up to
this year's election, polls had consistently shown HZDS in the
second or third position with 10 to 11.5 percent of the vote, and
some members had even expected as much as 15 to 20 percent. In
actuality, HZDS won only 8.79 percent and 15 seats in Parliament.
Meciar has said that the party will hire an independent agency to
analyze reasons for the fall in HZDS support.


11. (SBU) Although the drop in popularity came as a shock to Meciar
and his allies, other sources note that it had been expected. The
English-language weekly Slovak Spectator reported that Meciar had
been "slowly burning out" over the past few years, and his
otherwise-faithful voters had not understood "why the Father of the
Nation would assist Dzurinda in his quest to sell Slovak state
assets to foreign corporations, after having spoken so ardently 10
years earlier of the need to create a Slovak domestic capital
class." Embassy contacts have called the former PM "a shadow of his
former self," who voters had admired for his liquor-swigging,
tough-guy persona of the 1990s. SNS leader Jan Slota has retained
this good-ol'-boy image, and many of HZDS's traditional voters have
changed allegiances to SNS. Frustrated by regional economic
inequalities, other HZDS voters have been converted to Smer.

KDH NEEDS TO RETHINK ITS DIRECTION
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12. (SBU) The Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) received the
lowest percentage of votes among the parties entering Parliament, at
8.31 percent. Following the elections, the party suffered internal
disputes, mainly over coalition talks (reftel). Several KDH leaders
resigned from their positions. Nevertheless, the former deputies
remain in the party because splitting up would doom KDH for good.
The party will need to rethink its priorities, as both its young
voters and progressive clergy have become critical of its often
ultra-conservative politics. KDH held an extraordinary congress on
July 22, in which Pavol Hrusovsky resigned as Chairman, but then
regained his position through reelection anyway. However, the fact
that he did not announce his resignation sooner gave no chance to
his critics to nominate an opponent.

THE LOSERS
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13. (U) Feeble results led to changes in the leadership of several
political parties that were unsuccessful in earning seats in
Parliament. The entire leadership of the Communist Party of
Slovakia (KSS) -- including Chairman Jozef Sevc -- resigned after
the party's poor showing in the election: 3.8 percent. The daily
Pravda reported that many KSS voters had switched over to Smer.
(NOTE: 11 out of the 16 new Cabinet members are former members of
the Communist Party. END NOTE.)


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14. (U) ANO leader and former MP Eva Cerna announced her departure
from the party and from politics shortly after the fruitless
election, in which the party earned a trifling 1.42 percent. After
five years in politics, Cerna has decided to instead devote herself
to social affairs and human rights in the third sector. The future
of ANO remains to be seen, although four years out of Parliament and
out of the media may keep ANO out of mainstream politics as well.
The party has already suffered disappointments in the past, and
rumors about the resignation of Cerna and other leaders had been
circulating since ANO's failure to win seats in the European
Parliament in 2004.

WHY SUCH A LOW TURNOUT?
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15. (U) Of over four million eligible voters, only 2,335,917 --
roughly 54.67 percent -- placed a ballot in June's parliamentary
election. This was the lowest voter turnout in a parliamentary
election in independent Slovakia's history, with previous turnout
ranging between a low of 70.1 percent in the 2002 elections and a
high of 84.2 percent in 1998. Pre-election polls had, in fact,
predicted low turnout, but it ended up even lower than expected.
The World Cup and long-awaited summer weather were partly to blame,
as were voter discontent with the candidates and general
disillusionment with Slovak politics. For the first time in
Slovakia's history, polls were only opened for a period of one day
instead of two, which may also have contributed to the low turnout.


16. (SBU) Campaign analysts suggested campaigns had been boring and
many politicians had simply thrown away their chances to persuade
hesitant voters to go to the polls. KDH leaders are among those who
plead guilty. Their low-key, "personal" approach to campaigning
failed to reach most voters and left the leaders exhausted by the
time coalition talks started. Analysts criticized all parties for
their political ads, which presented no inventive ideas. No
attempts were made to attract voters with controversial topics -- as
each party had treaded softly to keep from alienating possible
coalition partners.

NEW TRENDS IN THE SLOVAK CONSTITUENCY
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17. (SBU) Lower turnout may be a future trend for the Slovak
constituency, which has become largely disinterested in politics.
Low turnout has been even more noticeable in regional and local
elections over the past few years. On a positive note, however,
city voters -- who had traditionally been less likely to vote than
their rural counterparts -- have become more enthusiastic, with the
highest turnout in Slovakia occurring in the two largest cities of
Bratislava and Kosice. During most of the 1990s, educated city
dwellers had been largely disinterested in politics, while people in
agricultural areas and small villages had been the ones voting for
candidates like Meciar on the basis of qualities such as "personal
charisma." Although this trend may not have reversed itself
totally, it has at least equalized, so that voters from city and
country alike are participating in elections.


18. (SBU) Another trend that Slovakia may witness in the near
future is a "cleaning out" of the party pool. Many voters had been
frustrated in part by the overwhelming number of candidates, as 21
parties ran in the election. This number may begin to decrease and
the political situation to stabilize, as voters behave in a
pragmatic way rather than "throwing away" their votes on minor
parties.

COMMENT
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19. (SBU) COMMENT: In general, Slovaks are in favor of reform, with
pro-reform parties collectively receiving a higher number of votes
than Smer. When HZDS, which has often supported reforms, is
included, reform-based parties constitute a majority. However, many
voters had begun to feel left out, both from the benefits of
economic reforms and from the political process itself, and many
also complained that they needed "a rest" from the often painful
reforms. As a result, expectations for the new government are very
high. Fico's popularity in the polls is even stronger now than
before the election, and many Slovaks are expecting economic
miracles. They may become disillusioned when they realize the Fico
government will not make any drastic changes or create instant
wealth. This may be one reason why Fico named technocrat ministers:
they can be easily sacrificed for the sake of Fico's popularity,
with no political cost.

VALLEE