KDH: A SCHISM IN SLOVAKIA'S CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000594

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: KDH: A SCHISM IN SLOVAKIA'S CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN
PARTY

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 494


B. BRATISLAVA 99

C. BRATISLAVA 513

D. BRATISLAVA 532

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Slovakia's conservative Christian
Democratic Movement (KDH) is suffering a crisis of
leadership. The Hrusovsky-led pragmatist and the Palko-led
principled factions disagree as to whether KDH should play
the role of a small utilitarian party in any type of
governing coalition or remain the conservative moral compass
of the Slovak political spectrum. The pragmatists outweigh
the principled few at this point, causing five members of the
eleven-member party presidium to resign their leadership
positions. An extraordinary party congress will meet on July
22 to fill the empty presidium seats. KDH is unlikely to
disintegrate from the rift. However, it will need to heal
its internal strife if it wants to play an effective role in
the opposition. END SUMMARY.

WHY WE CARE ABOUT KDH
--------------

2. (SBU) Established in 1993, KDH is a conservative,
right-wing party based on Catholic moral values with a strong
anti-corruption theme. The party is known for being
staunchly principled. KDH was a responsible and effective
partner in the GOS's governing coalition from 1998 - Feb

2006. KDH oversaw the passage of legislation to increase
transparency and, through control of the Justice Ministry,
established special courts to combat high-level corruption
and organized crime cases. Though SDKU now gets the credit,
Slovakia's successful flat tax was initially proposed by KDH.
KDH's platform does not always mesh with U.S. policy goals
but it remains one of the most respectable parties in the
Slovak Parliament. Holding 14 out of 150 parliamentary seats,
KDH received the smallest percentage (8.31) of votes of the
six parties which passed the 5-percent threshold to enter
Parliament in the June 17th elections. Though small, the
quality of its people may allow for greater influence than
the numbers would imply.

WHAT CAUSED THE GREAT SCHISM?
--------------

3. (SBU) KDH will only be able to realize its potential
influence if it can overcome its internal split. After a
united stance against joining any coalition with Vladimir
Meciar, thereby squashing Mikulas Dzurinda's hope of forming
a government (ref A),the KDH leadership debated and
eventually disagreed over participating in a coalition headed
by Robert Fico of Smer. The schism is essentially a debate
of principles versus pragmatism. KDH's principled stance on
the implementation of a treaty signed with the Holy See
caused it to leave the center-right governing coalition in
February, thus causing the fall of the government and forcing
early elections (ref B). KDH then received about three
percentage points less than expected from voters. These
political realities appear to have convinced the majority of
KDH's leadership, after ten days of post-election internal
debate (ref C),that political compromise could accomplish
more than unbending principle. After a 6-5 vote of the party
presidium, KDH publicly announced that it was willing to go
into coalition with the leftist party Smer. The disastrously
timed announcement came mere hours before Smer, fed up with
waiting for KDH's answer to its generous proposal (ref C),
announced its decision to govern with SNS and HZDS (ref D).
Since then, the pragmatic and the principled factions within
KDH have privately and publicly aired their differences.
(Note: The terms "pragmatic" and "principled factions" are
Embassy phrases, not used by KDH. End note.) During an
eight-hour meeting of KDH's 120-member council on July 8, the
majority supported the pragmatic faction of Chairman Pavol
Hrusovsky. The last of the five members of the principled
faction of the presidium then resigned their leadership
positions. This remains the current status of the schism.
KDH will hold an extraordinary party congress on July 22 to
vote on new presidium members.


4. (SBU) KDH has weathered internal schisms and splintering
before. Among other splits, Mikulas Dzurinda departed from
KDH to form SDKU and become Prime Minister for eight years.
Although Dzurinda took some KDH voters and members, KDH
survived and was voted into parliament.

THE PRAGMATISTS
--------------

5. (C) The pragmatist faction is led by Chairman Pavol
Hrusovsky with support from fellow presidium members Julius
Brocka, Alojz Pridal, Martin Fronc, Jozef Simko, and Peter
Bobula. Their support comes from the local and regional

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structures of the party. In a conversation with PolChief,
the party's deputy chairman Brocka blamed the public
statements of Daniel Lipsic and to a lesser extent Vladimir
Palko for preventing KDH from going into coalition with Smer.
Brocka said that Smer deputy chairmen Robert Kalinak and
Pavol Paska were much more in favor of a coalition with KDH
and SMK than what they ended up with. Brocka believes that
KDH would have been better off in the governing coalition
rather than in the opposition.


6. (C) The regional structures of the party had a
bread-and-butter reason to support a coalition with Smer -
jobs. The Ministries of Interior, Justice, and Education
have offices throughout Slovakia, where KDH supporters are
employed. These KDH members are expected to be replaced by
supporters of the parties that are in the governing
coalition. In KDH party meetings, the regional
representatives have a lot of strength, meaning Hrusovsky and
the other pragmatists can count on them for support.


7. (C) Brocka would prefer close cooperation with the other
opposition members, SDKU and SMK. However, he fears that
coordinated opposition might not be possible if Palko's
principled faction won't cooperate. Brocka indicated that
KDH will oppose any proposals by Smer to change the reforms
and positive legislative steps of the prior governing
coalition.


8. (C) In the pragmatist view, further internal strife in KDH
will only play into the hands of Dzurinda, who is waiting to
swoop up ever more KDH voters, perhaps to the point of
dismantling KDH. Brocka believes that KDH's chance to raise
its popularity among voters lies in attracting media interest
and demonstrating the consistency of their policy.

THE PRINCIPLED FACTION
--------------

9. (C) Vladimir Palko, Daniel Lipsic, Rudolf Bauer, Frantisek
Miklosko, and Pavol Minarik are the five former KDH presidium
members who resigned over KDH's eventual agreement to partner
with Smer. They believe that their conservative principles
are at the heart of everything KDH represents. The
last-minute announcement of KDH's willingness to join Smer
was nothing less than a humiliating debasement, according to
this camp. Going into coalition with the leftist Smer or the
corrupt HZDS was unthinkable to them. They do not want to
play the role of the utilitarian party, ready to be the
smaller party in any governing coalition. KDH should stand
firm as the country's conservative and moral compass on the
right side of the political spectrum.


10. (C) Palko's advisor Jaroslav Daniska told PolOff that the
split in KDH had existed for some time but was brought to the
boiling point by the elections. He feels that the lack of a
pre-election statement from KDH to indicate that they would
not form a coalition with Smer is what lost them the three
percentage points on election day, which he believes went to
SDKU because Dzurinda did make such a statement, resulting in
the weakened political position that KDH now faces. Daniska
insisted that this internal struggle needs to run its course,
implying that it is far from over. He indicated that Palko
will run for KDH Chairmanship at the next regular session of
the party congress in 2007, which should give him time to
change the party spirit. Daniska believes that KDH will
survive the current strife, but it may take some time to
reconcile. Coordinated cooperation in the opposition may be
difficult until the party mends its own wounds.


11. (C) Daniska provided a few ideas that he thought would
help KDH increase its electoral results in the future. The
party should appeal to rural voters by focusing on family,
social, and "patriotic" values. KDH's version of family
values means providing financial support only to families
whose children are born in wedlock. A focus on patriotic
values is KDH's recognition that some of its votership
overlaps with SNS and HZDS. The party can appeal to urban
voters by communicating its strong anti-corruption stance,
Daniska said.


12. (C) One thing both factions can agree on is wariness of
Mikulas Dzurinda. His political savvy has the potential to
exacerbate the problems within KDH. Dzurinda advisor Tatiana
Rosova told PolChief after the elections that SDKU would like
to consolidate the right and make the Slovak political scene
more "standard European." That said, SDKU remains the
natural political partner of KDH.

IS RECONCILIATION POSSIBLE?
--------------

13. (C) Founder, former Chairman, and (in the words of
Daniska) "Democratic Machiavelli," Jan Carnogursky has
announced his return to the party leadership though says he

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does not plan to run for the Chairmanship. Daniska's
preferred resolution to the split is to have Carnogursky take
over the party, return the politics to its principled base,
but allow Hrusovsky to save face. However, this solution may
not be likely given that Carnogursky supported a coalition
with Smer. The pragmatists think that the other faction
simply needs to realize that compromise is part of the
political process. Less than 15 percent of the KDH council
supported the principled position. Having the majority of
support within the party, the pragmatists are ready to move
on. That said, they recognize that a problem exists within
the party. It is perhaps up to the majority pragmatists to
allow the principled faction to save face. Brocka attributed
some of the strife to post-campaigning fatigue.


14. (SBU) COMMENT: KDH is unlikely to disintegrate or split
in half. If a few determined members left now, they wouldn't
take a significant part of KDH supporters with them. But
there is not space in a country of 5.5 million inhabitants
for more than one Christian conservative party. In an
attempt to return KDH to its core principles, Palko and
Lipsic intend to travel Slovakia to promote their own vision
to party members over the coming year leading up to the
regular party congress in 2007. In the short-term, the
extraordinary session of the party congress, including the
pragmatic regional representatives, is expected to endorse
Hrusovsky this Saturday. KDH needs to heal its internal
strife if it wants to play an effective role in the
opposition.
VALLEE