SMER COURTS INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE FOR COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000528

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: SMER COURTS INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE FOR COALITION
PARTNERS

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 527


B. BRATISLAVA 521

C. BRATISLAVA 513

D. BRATISLAVA 506

E. BRATISLAVA 499

F. BRATISLAVA 494

G. BRATISLAVA 491

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Following fast on the heels of Smer
chairman Robert Fico's June 28 announcement of a
Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition (Reftel A),Smer deputy international
secretary Katarina Nevedalova invited Poloff to breakfast

SIPDIS
June 29 to "tell us personally" about the developments.
Sheepish and clearly aware of the international community's
disdain for HZDS Chairman Vladimir Meciar and SNS boss Jan
Slota, Nevedalova told us that it was Smer's "only option."
At least two of Smer's Vice Chairmen -- and the party's
international desk -- tried hard to keep Fico from offering
the parties partnership. Nonetheless, Fico believes his
European socialist colleagues are accepting of the coalition.
Fico will travel to Strasbourg soon to engage them further.
Smer will hold at least 24 senior positions in the new
government, which may more than deplete its small pool of
experienced, qualified leaders. END SUMMARY.

SMER THE MORNING AFTER: SHEEPISH, AWARE OF SCRUTINY
-------------- --------------


2. (C) During a June 29 breakfast the morning after Robert
Fico announced the formation of a Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition
government (ref A),Smer deputy international secretary
Katarina Nevedalova appeared sheepish about, but accepting
of, the coalition. She said that she was against such a
coalition and that Smer was well aware that it was the least
acceptable government for the international community.
However, it recently became Smer's "only option" after KDH
faltered, and SMK -- which would only have joined Smer in a
coalition with KDH or SDKU -- became too greedy in its
demands.

KALINAK, PASKA STRONGLY AGAINST SNS, BUT...
--------------


3. (C) Nevedalova -- who told us on June 20 that Smer Vice
Chairman Robert Kalinak was so strongly opposed to working
with SNS that he might leave the party if it joined Smer in a
coalition -- said that Kalinak and Smer Vice Chairman Pavol
Paska were strongly against cooperation "right up to the
end," but felt they were left with no other options.
(COMMENT: Paska had told us earlier this week that this was
a bad option, but preferable to fighting further over
possible partners. We doubt this is the case, as Smer's
position in such a coalition -- including 11 cabinet
ministries, in addition to Prime Minister and Chairman of
parliament -- gives it carte blanche to implement its agenda
for the "token price" of a few minor ministries. The
Smer-SNS-HZDS combination leaves Fico with no credible rivals
on policy matters, as he prefers. END COMMENT.)

MINISTRIES UNCERTAIN, BUT SMER WILL GET MFA
--------------


4. (C) Representatives from Smer, SNS, and HZDS are meeting
June 29 to discuss the details of which party will get which
ministries, but Nevedalova said Smer will control all of the
"powerful" ministries -- including the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and the Ministry of the Interior, as well as the
chairmanship of Parliament. She said that Slovak diplomat
Jan Kubis, currently seconded to Javier Solana's office as EU
Special Envoy to Central Asia, will likely be the next
Foreign Minister. (COMMENT: Slovak contacts give Kubis
generally good grades as a professional. END COMMENT.)

SMER THINKS EUROPEAN SOCIALISTS OK WITH COALITION...
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Immediately following the election, Smer began
reaching out to its colleagues in the Party of European
Socialists (PES),sending them updates about the
post-election process. Based upon this outreach, Smer
believes that its coalition has the acceptance of its
socialist partners. (NOTE: In the early days of coalition
forming, Nevedalova and others told us that Smer was
receiving pressure from its PES colleagues not to work with
the nationalists.) Nevedalova told us that Smer hopes to
push an aggressive program for improving the situation of

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Slovakia's Roma minority, and to protect the rights of the
"Slovak minority" living in primarily Hungarian areas. She
said the party heard from many Slovaks after the election who
were pushing for cooperation with SNS, as many people feel it
is "unacceptable" to have a Hungarian as Minister of
Education, etc.

...BUT FICO WILL GO TO STRASBOURG TO MAKE SURE
-------------- -


6. (C) Although confident Smer will still be welcome as a
member of PES, Fico clearly understands that his new
coalition with authoritarian former Prime Minister Vladimir
Meciar and nationalist bigot Jan Slota faces an uphill public
relations battle. As a result, soon-to-be Prime Minister
Fico plans to travel to Strasbourg on July 5 to meet with
other socialist Members of European Parliament to discuss his
government.

HOW WE GOT HERE: FICO'S FEAR OF DZURINDA?
--------------


7. (C) Nevedalova told us Smer was "surprised" with HZDS'
"hard to get" routine after the elections. Noting that HZDS
was desperate to return to power, Smer found it "funny" that
the party seemed so reluctant to accept cooperation when
first offered in the days following the vote. Similarly,
Nevedalova hinted that Fico's decision to move forward
immediately with a Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition may in fact be a
back-handed compliment to Mikulas Dzurinda, who was working
to put together a government of his own. Fico apparently
felt that he needed to move quickly, to deprive Dzurinda of
the chance to work his political magic and pull a coalition
out of a hat. (COMMENT: We think Fico wanted to maximize
his personal power over policy making. END COMMENT.)


8. (SBU) Septel will describe likely policy implications of
a Smer-SNS-HZDS coalition.
VALLEE